A crash in fertilizer costs may shift soybean acres to corn

The expectation of lower fertilizer prices this spring may result in a shift of U.S. soybean acres to corn acres.
The reason why is that lower fertilizer costs increase the profitability of corn relative to soybeans, Darrel Good, University of Illinois economist, says in a January 14 report.
Since September, wholesale prices of fertilizers have declined dramatically. In September, fertecon reported that wholesale prices of anhydrous ammonia at the Gulf of Mexico were over $800 per ton. By early January, anhydrous ammonia prices had crashed below $200 per ton. Similarly diammonium phosphaste (DAP) at the Gulf was over $1,000 per ton in September and about $350 in early January.
In explaining these price declines, executives of The Mosaic Co., a publicly traded fertilizer company, indicated that a “perfect storm” of factors led to the price declines including: the global financial crisis; large distribution pipeline stocks in some regions of the United States; and a late North American harvest season.
Good says that for corn, fertilizer costs using anticipated spring prices are $67 per acre lower than for fall prices. For soybeans, fertilizer costs using spring prices are $28 lower than fall prices. These fertilizer cost reductions increase the profitability of corn relative to soybeans by $39/acre, “a sizable increase that may cause corn to be more profitable than soybeans,” he says.