International Grains Council releases five-year supply and demand projections

The International Grains Council (IGC) has released its five-year global supply and demand projections, saying that world total grains output is expected to decline slightly in 2014/2015, but then will rise again by an average of 1.6 percent each year over the remainder of the five-year period. Output is estimated to exceed 2 billion tons by 2016/2017.
While some area expansion is anticipated, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS and Brazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity, according to the IGC. Firm demand growth is also expected and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use is projected to fall slightly to 18 percent by the end of 2018/2019, from 20 percent forecast for 2013/2014. The projections indicate a marked increase in trade volumes over the five years, as increased demand is met by production growth in the key exporters, most notably in South America and the Black Sea region.
 Rice output and demand growth are expected to be closely matched, at an average of 0.8 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Overall, world stocks should remain comfortable, but the stock-to-use ratio is forecast to decline slightly, to 21 percent from 23 percent forecast for the end of 2013/2014. Trade is projected to expand further, led by increased deliveries to Far East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
Soybean and rapeseed/canola production growth is expected to outpace grains and rice, against a background of strong demand from the crushing industry, according to the IGC's report. Combined output growth is projected at an average of 2.1 percent per year in the medium term. Oilseed stocks should recover, but the market is likely to remain relatively tight, with the stock-to-use ratio is seen rising only slightly, to 12 percent, from 10 percent anticipated for the end of 2013/2014.

Register for Farm Journal, WATT 'Grain & Meat Outlook' webinar

The third "Grain & Meat Outlook" will be presented on October 15.

Join Farm Journal, Pro Farmer editor Chip Flory and Dr. Tom Elam, president, FarmEcon LLC, for the third installment of the WATT Global Media/Farm Journal "Grain & Meat Outlook" webinar series for 2013.
The webinar will be held Tuesday, October 15 at 10 a.m. CT. To register for the webinar, visit www.WATTAgNet.com/Upcoming_Webinars.aspx.
Farm Journal will present its 2013 harvest estimates and the implications this will have for grain purchasers in terms of supply and prices. The impacts of the projected harvest on the meat and poultry sectors will be forecast by Dr. Elam, including expectations for meat and poultry supply and prices for the remainder of 2013 and into 2014.
Attendees will learn:
o The most up to date estimates of what the harvest numbers will be for soybeans and corn in the U.S.
o Analysis of the impact of current crop conditions on the expected final yield and harvest
o Strategies for feed users
o Wholesale meat and poultry supply and pricing for the remainder of 2013 and into 2014

Oilseed and Grain Trade Summit attracts importers from China, Turkey

With a global scope and coverage across the oilseed and grain supply chain, the 8th annual Oilseed and Grain Trade Summit, to be held at the Minneapolis Convention Center in Minnesota, October 21-23, 2013, continues to add importers from throughout the world to its attendance list.
"The fact that four out of the five largest oilseed and grain importers have joined the expanding list of registrants is a testament to the summit's effectiveness as an annual venue for the industry to meet, interact and conduct business," said Mark Dineen, director at HighQuest Partners, the agribusiness strategic advisory firm that hosts the summit.
Hundreds of traders and importers, including prominent companies such as Jilin Grain Group, Chinatex Grain & Oil, Sanhe Hopefull Grain & Oil Group, Hakan Agro, MPM Gida San ve Tic Ltd. Sti, Xiamen Mingsui Grains & Oils, 93 Oils, and Hebei Hopefull Grains & Oils, will be at the event. Trading opportunities and meetings with exporters will be numerous at the various networking sessions and receptions held throughout the event.
Top sponsors, including ADM, Cargill, CHS, CME Group, INTL FCStone, Novus, Wells Fargo and Thomson Reuters, will join over 100 additional sponsors and exhibitors on an expanded show floor to engage in three days of interactive agriculture industry dialogue.
The conference, which was attended in 2012 by more than 800 industry representatives hailing from 38 U.S. states and 40 countries, will address the latest trends and developments in the oilseed sector (soybeans, canola/rapeseed, sunflower, cottonseed and tropical oils) as well as across the major feed grains (corn, wheat, barley, sorghum, oats, etc.).
Antonio Galindez, president and CEO of Dow AgroSciences and keynote speaker for the 2012 summit, said that his experience at the conference convinced him that it is a very important event for those operating in the oilseed and grain trade as it provides a unique opportunity to evaluate agriculture from a number of different perspectives. "In addition to being exposed to relevant and timely information, one has the rare opportunity to speak with a wide range of people in the trade which can lead to new and unexpected business development opportunities," he said.

US feed, grain exports forecast up for 2012

U.S. grain and feed exports for the fiscal year 2012 are forecast at $34.6 billion, up $600 million from the February forecast, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
Upward revisions in wheat, rice and feeds and fodders more than offset lower corn values. Wheat is boosted nearly $500 million to $8.5 billion on sharply increased volume, although lower values are a dampening factor. The rise reflects strong shipments expected during the fourth quarter. Competition from other exporters will be limited during the summer, giving the U.S. increased market opportunities for the new crop.
The forecast export value for coarse grains is lowered $600 million to $13 billion, mostly due to corn. Corn prices are expected to weaken in the face of a record crop and greater competition, especially from Brazil. Feeds and fodders are up $300 million, primarily corn gluten feed and meal, on both volume and value, according to the USDA. Distillers dried grains are up slightly based on shipments to China in recent months. Rice exports are up $200 million to $2.1 billion on the rapid pace of sales to Northeast Asia as well as South and Central America since March. U.S. prices are higher on tighter stocks and reports of lower planted area as farmers switch to more profitable crops.
The fiscal 2012 forecast for oilseeds and products is raised $1.4 billion to $26.4 billion. Significant crop losses in South America have strengthened U.S. unit prices and raised export prospects for soybeans and soybean meal. Limited U.S. exportable supplies of soybean oil due to strong domestic demand leaves the export forecast unchanged.
For more grains information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.  

Poultry market data available on WATTAgNet

WATTAgNet's Market Data section offers a quick collection of statistics for the U.S. poultry industry.

The new Market Data section of WATTAgNet offers a snapshot of statistics for the U.S. poultry industry.
The statistics can be viewed on a single page for easy reference, and the charts can be made larger by simply clicking on them. Figures shown include:

• grain prices
• grain futures
• broiler-type eggs set
• broiler-type chicks placed/hatched
• broiler prices (whole birds/parts) 
• table egg prices
• egg production

The data is updated as available on a daily, weekly or monthly basis.

USPOULTRY to present grain forecast conference

The 2010 Grain Forecast and Economic Outlook Conference, sponsored by the U.S. Poultry and Egg Association (USPOULTRY), will be held November 10 at the Airport Hilton Hotel in Atlanta, Ga.
“Feed manufacturing is a costly and vital function in today’s poultry and egg operations and the increasing cost of corn is a serious concern,” said program chairman, Lamar Nance of Keystone Foods.
The program will include a poultry industry situation report and an outlook on prediction of global weather patterns.

To register for the Grain Forecast and Economic Outlook Conference, click here.

Economist at grain conference says bull market ‘real’

Speaking at the 2009 Grain Forecast – Economic Outlook Conference, sponsored by U.S. Poultry & Egg Association’s Poultry & Egg Institute, economist Dr. Donald Ratajczak said the recent run-up in the U.S. stock market is real and should continue at least through 2010.
“There are some concerns, but I believe the current bull market that began in March is solid and will last a couple of years,” Ratajczak said.
Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services presented saying, “The U.S. needs to bump up corn production in the long run. The biggest factor in corn supply recently has been ethanol. And the trend in corn used for ethanol is clearly higher.”