US broiler export forecast lowered for 2014, 2015

Exports of U.S. broilers are expected to be lower than earlier projected, the USDA revealed in its August 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates report. The agency stated that Russia’s restrictions on imports of U.S. poultry, announced on August 6, will contribute to the overall reduction in U.S. poultry exports.
According to the August WASDE report, the agency expects exports of U.S. broilers in 2014 to reach 7.22 billion pounds, down from its July projection of 7.36 billion pounds. The agency called for 2015 U.S. broiler exports amounting to 7.32 billion pounds, down from the July estimate of 7.48 billion pounds. U.S. broiler ending stocks for both 2014 and 2015 were unchanged at 605 million pounds and 645 million pounds, respectively.
Despite the anticipated decrease in broiler exports, U.S. broiler production is expected to be higher for both years than the agency forecast in July. The August WASDE report called for 38.4 billion pounds produced in the U.S. in 2014, up from its 38.23 billion pound projection made in July. U.S. broiler production in 2015 has been raised to 39.35 billion pounds, up from the July estimate of 39.32 billion pounds.
US turkey export forecast raised for 2014
The forecast for U.S. turkey exports has been raised for 2014. The August WASDE report calls for 737 million pounds in turkey exports in 2014, compared to 718 million pounds projected in the July WASDE report.
The forecast for U.S. turkey exports in 2015 was unchanged at 750 million pounds. Ending stock projections were also unchanged for both years, at 225 million pounds in 2014 and 310 million pounds in 2015.
The only change in U.S. turkey production reflected in the August WASDE report was a slight drop in 2014 production. The agency backed down from its July projection of 7.717 million pounds to 7.711 million pounds.

US broiler production forecast for 2015 raised

The USDA forecast for broiler meat production in 2015 has been raised, as lower expected feed costs are expected to support a more rapid increase in production. In the USDA’s July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the agency calls for U.S. broiler production to reach 39.32 billion pounds in 2015, up from its June forecast of 39.23 billion pounds.
While the agency anticipates expanded production in 2015, it sees expansion being muted in 2014. The USDA forecast for U.S. broiler production in 2014 is holding steady at 38.23 billion pounds, the same estimate given in the June WASDE report.
The most recent WASDE report was released on July 11.
USDA turkey forecast raised for 2014, steady for 2015
U.S. turkey production follows the opposite pattern that U.S. broiler production does in the July WASDE report. The USDA’s July forecast for U.S. turkey production is raised for 2014, while staying unchanged for 2015.
The agency calls for higher-than-expected turkey production in 2014, citing higher production during the second quarter. The agency raised its 2014 projection from its June forecast of 5.71 billion pounds of turkey produced in the U.S. to 5.72 billion pounds.
The USDA forecast for 2015 U.S. turkey production remains at 5.93 billion pounds. 

US broiler production, consumption expected to rise steadily through 2023

U.S. broiler production and consumption is expected to increase steadily over the next ten years, nearly doubling the production and consumption of both beef and pork by 2023. The projections were highlighted in the Agricultural Projections report, released by the USDA Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) on February 13.
US broiler production to grow by 10 billion pounds
Broiler production in the United States is expected to reach 35 billion pounds in 2014, but production will continue to rise throughout the projection period, reaching nearly 45 billion pounds in 2023. Larger amounts of birds produced and heavier weights at slaughter are both expected to contribute to the increase in U.S. broiler production.
The projected U.S. broiler production estimates significantly exceed the estimated figures of U.S. pork and beef production. An estimated 24 billion pounds of pork and 23 billion pounds of beef are expected to be produced in the United States in 2023.
U.S. beef production is expected to decline through 2016, before starting a slow, gradual climb. U.S. pork production is forecast to surpass U.S. beef production in 2014 and continue rise slowly throughout 2023, maintaining a modest lead in market share over beef throughout the projection period.
US per capita broiler consumption to rise substantially
U.S. consumption of broiler meat will substantially rise from an estimated 83.7 pounds per capita in 2014 to 94.7 in 2023, according to the Agricultural Projections report. Meanwhile, U.S. pork consumption will rise slightly from 47.1 pounds per capita in 2014 to 48.6 pounds in 2023, and U.S. beef consumption will drop from 53 pounds per capita in 2014 to 52.1 pounds in 2023.
Turkey consumption is also expected to increase over the projection period, rising from an estimated 16.3 pounds per capita in 2014 to 17.4 pounds per capita in 2023.

USDA lowers forecasts for US broiler, turkey production in 2014

The USDA in February lowered its forecast for U.S. broiler and turkey production in 2014, backing down from estimates released in January. The latest figures were released in the February 10 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
According to the February 2014 WASDE report, U.S. broiler production in 2014 is estimated at 38.88 billion pounds, down from the 38.9 billion pound estimate released in the January. The broiler production forecast was reduced based on slower growth in slaughter. While the projection for 2014 U.S. broiler production in 2014 was lowered, total broiler production would still surpass the 2013 U.S. broiler production estimate of 37.82 billion pounds.
The USDA called for U.S. turkey production for 2014 to reach an estimated 5.85 billion pounds, a drop from the January forecast of 5.9 billion pounds. The projection was lowered based on fewer eggs set and poult placements. The projection for U.S. turkey production in 2014 is higher than the 5.8 billion pound estimate for 2013.

US broiler production expected to increase 3 percent in 2014

U.S. broiler production is expected to increase by nearly 3 percent in 2014 as producers are expected to take advantage of lower feed costs. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its November 15 Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook report, forecast annual broiler production to reach 38.9 billion pounds.
As expected, the biggest reason for the projected increase in U.S. broiler production in 2014  is a decrease in feed costs in 2014. Gerry Bange, USDA outlook chairman, said the price of corn is expected to drop 25 percent, while soybean prices should decrease 15 percent.
"Clearly, the broiler folks want to jump on this," Bange said during a USDA broadcast. "Simply stated, we're looking at lower feed costs and better returns. We think that's reason enough to show an increase in our production in 2014."
The U.S. broiler industry's increase in production appears to be coming earlier than 2014, as the USDA report also forecast production for the fourth quarter of 2013 at 9.5 billion pounds, a 3.3 percent increase from U.S. broiler production in the third quarter of 2013.
We're thinking in terms of 38.9 billion pounds of broilers in 2014, that's an increase of 3 percent compared to 2013. Simply stated, we're looking at lower feed costs, better returns. We think that's reason enough to show an increase in our production forecast for 2014.

US broiler meat in cold storage up five percent at end of June

U.S. broiler meat stocks in cold storage at the end of June totaled 637 million pounds, a five percent increase from the end of June 2012. However, in its August 16 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report, the USDA forecast a drop in frozen stocks of broilers during the second half of 2013.
While overall broiler stocks were up on June 30, there was some variation in cold storage levels for different broiler products. Stocks of whole birds were up 18 percent, and leg quarters, thighs and wings were all up significantly. However, lower cold storage holdings of breast meat, legs and thigh meat helped offset those larger gains.
Cold storage levels for broiler products are expected to be below 2012 levels for the end of the third and fourth quarters as falling prices for many broiler products will help increase consumption. The USDA anticipates that chicken products will also face downward price pressure for the second half of 2013 as production picks up in response to anticipated lower feed costs. 

US Broiler production in second quarter of 2013 below expectations

U.S. broiler production during the second quarter of 2013 did not grow as much as previously expected, prompting the United States Department of Agriculture to reduce its forecast for overall U.S. broiler production in 2013. In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA forecast 37.73 billion pounds of broilers will be produced in the United States in 2013, down from the 37.77 billion pounds projected in the July report.
The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report included an estimate of 9.5 billion pounds produced during the second quarter of 2013. However, the agency adjusted its projections after the USDA's July Poultry Slaughter report showed broiler production for the quarter at 9.466 billion pounds, explained Shayle Shagam, USDA livestock, poultry and dairy analyst. Both the projected figure and the actual figure for broiler production in the second quarter of 2013 were above broiler production during the second quarter of 2012, Shagam said, but the increase was only 0.9 percent instead of the expected 1.3 percent.
If the August projections for 2013 broiler production are realized, broiler production will increase 1.9 percent from 2012. The USDA forecast for 2014 broiler production remains at 38.9 billion pounds. 

USDA forecasts 2013 broiler production at 37.3 billion pounds

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast that 37.3 billion pounds of broiler meat will be produced in 2013, a slight increase from the 37 billion pounds raised in 2012.
Despite uncertainties about the cost of feed in the coming year, the industry is expected to respond to an increased demand on exports and domestic consumers as the economy continues to improve. Also, heavier slaughter weights will add to the overall pounds produced, according to the USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, released on Februrary 14.
Encouraging prospects on exports was revealed in the report, as broiler shipments in December 2012 totaled 607.1 million pounds, a 4-percent increase from 2011 numbers. Increased exports to Mexico, Angola and China were key to the improvement.

Turkey
Turkey meat production in 2013 is forecast at 6 billion pounds, up one percent from 2012 numbers. The February forecast is up 25 million pounds from what was earlier predicted in January. While numbers of birds slaughtered will remain about the same, their weights will be increased. If the forecast holds true, it will mark the third consecutive year for growth in terms of total pounds of US turkey produced.
Turkey exports also show promise. While exports dropped in December 2012, the total volume of fourth-quarter exports was the largest ever recorded, up 10 percent from the same period in 2011. Mexico and China accounted for 63 percent of the quarterly shipments.

Eggs
Table-egg production in 2013 is forecast to reach 6.78 billion dozen, up 1.3 percent from the 6.7 billion dozen during 2012. The production growth is expected to come from an increased number of hens. Little change is expected in the rate of eggs produced per bird.
Hatching egg production for 2013 is forecast at 1.04 billion dozen, up 0.9 percent from 2012 numbers. The anticipated growth of the industry is credited for this increase.
Egg shipments in December 2012 rose a sharp 19 percent from the same month of 2011, partly due to a hike in shipments to Mexico, which experienced an avian influenza outbreak in June 2012. More eggs were also shipped to Canada and Hong Kong than during 2011, as well. The total volume of eggs shipped during the fourth quarter of 2012 set a new record, up 27 percent from the same time frame in 2011, according to USDA data.

U.S. broiler production, exports forecast higher for February

The 2013 forecasts for broiler production and poultry exports are raised from last month, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture February 8.
The forecast rise in production is based off of hatchery data pointing to continued expansion of bird numbers.
Slaughter weights have also been increasing, adding to the overall higher forecast. Estimated production was at 37,300 million pounds, up 500 million pounds from a month ago, but down 264 million from a year ago.
Total supply numbers projected for February are at 37,666 million pounds, up 498 million from January.
Exports showed a gain of 200 million pounds from a month ago, with ending stocks staying level. The increase is based off of stronger demand. Imports were unchanged.
The projected broiler price range for broiler meat is from 92 to 98 cents per pound, up two cents from a month ago. The price one year ago was 86.6 cents per pound.
The report also indicated a projected production and export increase for U.S. turkeys. The production increase of 25 million pounds from January is based off slightly higher hatchery data. The February figure of 6,035 million pounds shows progress from the estimate of 5,968 million pounds in February 2012.
Total supply for turkeys was forecast at 6,261 million pounds, up 45 million pounds from the previous month. Projected poultry exports showed an increase of 100 million pounds from a month ago, and 23 million pounds from a year ago.
The projected turkey price stayed level this month with a range of $1 to $1.07.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report also reflected the forecast for beef and pork production to be higher. To see full report click here.

US broiler meat production up 8 percent in October

U.S. broiler meat production was 3.3 billion pounds in October, up 8 percent from 2011 numbers, mostly because the month had two additional slaughter days compared with October 2011, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report. In contrast, production in September was down 8 percent due to its having 2 fewer slaughter days than in 2011.
Examining broiler meat production over a slightly longer time frame shows that production has been very similar to 2011. Broiler meat production from August to October was only 0.3 percent less than in the same period in 2011.
In October 2012, the number of broilers slaughtered was up 6.3 percent to 746 million birds, while the average liveweight per bird was 5.95 pounds, an increase of 1.1 percent from 2011 numbers, according to the USDA. Broiler meat production for the fourth quarter of 2012 is forecast at 9.05 billion pounds, an increase of 50 million pounds from the previous estimate and 2.7 percent higher than in 2011. The fourth-quarter 2012 increase is expected to come from a greater number of broilers slaughtered and slightly higher average liveweights in the quarter.
The high corn prices forecast for the remainder of 2012 and into 2013, even with relatively strong prices for a number of broiler products (mostly whole birds, breast meat and wings), are expected to lead broiler integrators to scale back production in 2013. The number of chicks being placed for growout continues slightly lower than in 2011. From November 10 to December 8, chick placements averaged 155 million, down 0.9 percent from the same period in 2011. Chick placements are expected to remain below year-earlier levels into the first half of 2013 and then to gradually exceed year-earlier levels in the second half of 2013. The timing and speed of this change will largely depend on corn and soybean supplies, according to the USDA report.

For more information and statistics on U.S. poultry, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.

Kentucky sees slight broiler production decline in 2012

Kentucky's broiler production in 2012 has declined from 2011's record numbers due to feed costs, but poultry exports hit a record high and accounted for more than 19 percent of production, according to the state's agricultural cash receipts for January through September.
Higher prices in 2012 have partially offset the increased feed costs, reducing the impact on overall production levels, said reports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has predicted that poultry exports will remain at high levels, leaving less than 80 pounds of chicken per person on the domestic market, which is the lowest level in 10 years. UK agricultural economist Lee Meyer said he believes poultry prices are likely to rise five to 10 percent in 2013.
Kentucky's overall agricultural cash receipts for January through September totaled $3.6 billion, 10 percent higher than 2011’s record level for the same period, according to the USDA. Despite the U.S. drought over the summer and high feed costs, agricultural economists with the University of Kentucky College of Agriculture said they foresee 2012’s cash receipts in the state will total $5.3 billion. Net farm income is expected to fall around the high end of $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

US broiler stocks down in third quarter 2012

With lower broiler meat production in the third quarter of 2012 and continued strong exports, cold storage holdings of broiler products at the end of the third quarter of 2012 totaled 624 million pounds, down 2 percent from 2011 numbers but up 18 million pounds from the end of second-quarter 2012, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
Cold storage holdings of many broilers parts was significantly different from 2011, with some moving sharply lower while a few had strong gains. The cold storage holdings of whole birds, breast meat (down 31 percent), thighs (down 23 percent) and thigh meat (down 28 percent) all declined sharply from 2011 numbers. Partially offsetting these declines were increases in the holdings for legs (up 39 percent) and wings (up 32 percent), according to the USDA. Stocks of broiler meat products are expected to decline to 600 million pounds by the end of 2012 and in 2013 are expected to be roughly similar to their 2012 levels throughout the year.
The impacts of somewhat lower overall broiler production and falling stocks of whole birds and breast meat were seen in higher prices for these products. In October, prices for whole birds were just over $0.84 per pound, 14 percent higher than in 2011. Weekly prices in early November have moved even higher, to around $0.89 per pound. Prices for breast meat products were all stronger in October compared with 2011. Prices in the Northeast market for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.31 per pound, up over 8 percent from October 2011. Prices for breast meat with ribs and line run breast meat were both over 23 percent higher than 2011 numbers, according to the USDA.
Leg quarter prices at $0.52 per pound were down slightly from 2011, but a strong export market has led to relatively steady leg quarter prices so far in 2012. Monthly leg quarter prices in 2012 have remained between $0.49 and $0.53 per pound.

For more U.S. poultry information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.

US broiler production forecast up for fourth quarter 2012

U.S. broiler meat production is forecast at 9.05 billion pounds for the fourth quarter of 2012, 2 percent higher than 2011 numbers and slightly above previous estimates, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
The fourth-quarter production increase is expected to be driven by a higher number of birds slaughtered, since average live weights are not expected to be much different from 2011. Over the last several weeks, preliminary data have shown a higher overall number of broilers slaughtered. The estimate for production in first-quarter 2013 was also increased, by 30 million pounds to 9 billion pounds, but is still 1 percent lower than in first-quarter 2012.
Broiler meat production in the third quarter of 2012 was 9.37 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the same period in 2011. The decrease was the result of a 1.9-percent decline in the number of birds slaughtered, to 2.15 billion, according to the USDA. This was slightly offset by a fractional increase of 0.1 percent in the average live weight at slaughter to 5.82 pounds, compared with the third quarter 2011.
Broiler meat production in 2013 is forecast at 36.4 billion pounds, a decrease of 1 percent from 2012, but a slight increase from October's forecast. In 2013, the decline in broiler meat production is expected to come mainly from fewer birds being slaughtered, as the birds’ weights are expected to be close to or slightly higher than in 2012. Broiler integrators are expected to have a slight contraction in production due to the combination of continued high prices for corn and soybean meal and expected relatively modest growth in broiler prices.
The most recent weekly broiler hatchery report indicates a strong divide between the number of chicks recently placed for growout and the level of chicks that may be available through the end of 2012. Over the last five weeks (October 6 through November 3), the number of chicks placed for growout averaged 154.4 million, 2 percent higher than in the same period in 2011. Over the last several months this five-week moving average has changed from being significantly lower than in 2011 to becoming higher. However, according to the USDA, recent changes in the number of eggs placed in incubators point to a future trend of chick placements being lower than year-earlier levels. Over the last five weeks, the number of eggs placed in incubators was 1 percent below the same period in 2011.
For more information and statistics on U.S. poultry, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html. 

US poultry exports set record through third quarter 2012

U.S. poultry exports through the third quarter of 2012 set a new year-on-year record in value, while export quantity was slightly less than the record set in 2008, according to trade data released by the Foreign Agricultural Service.
U.S. poultry meat exports for January through September reached 3.04 million metric tons valued at $4.032 billion, up 6.3 percent and 13.8 percent year on year, respectively, from the same period in 2011. Exports of broiler meat (excluding chicken paws) for September were 279,279 metric tons, down 3.3 percent from the same month in 2011, while export value reached $355.1 million, up 4.2 percent, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service report. The decline in broiler shipments in September 2012 is largely because of decreased shipments to Hong Kong, Russia and Angola. Increased shipments to other markets, however, including Mexico, Canada, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Taiwan and the Philippines, helped to bolster the total.
Cumulative broiler meat (excluding paws) exports through the third quarter of 2012 were 2.45 million metric tons valued at $3.087 billion, up 5.9 percent and 17.8 percent, respectively, from the same period in 2011, according to the report. Both export quantity and export value set year-on-year records. Shipments to Mexico for the period rose by 20.5 percent to 408,978 metric tons, while exports to Russia increased by 59.4 percent to 206,923 metric tons. Shipments to Canada were 127,790 metric tons, up 22.8 percent, while exports to Angola reached 123,135 metric tons, up 2.8 percent year on year.
Exports to other important markets were Cuba, 112,122 metric tons, up 81.8 percent from the same period in 2011r; Iraq (including transshipments via Turkey) 99,005 metric tons, up 0.2 percent; Taiwan, 98,669 metric tons, up 26.2 percent; Hong Kong, 85,245 metric tons, down 54.2 percent; Kazakhstan, 74,095 metric tons, up almost four-fold; and China, 65,279 metric tons, up 42.5 percent.
Total broiler meat (including paws) exports for January through September reached 2.72 million metric tons valued at $3.437 billion, up 5.9 percent and 14.4 percent from the same period in 2011, respectively. Export value set a new record, while export quantity was second-highest on record. Of the total shipments, 42.7 percent or 1.17 million metric tons were shipped to the top five markets — Mexico, Hong Kong, Russia, China and Canada.
For more U.S. poultry information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html. 

US broiler trade down, turkey trade up in August

In August 2011, U.S. broiler shipments totaled 693.3 million pounds, the largest shipments on record, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report.
August 2012 broiler shipments totaled 648 million pounds, a 6.5-percent decrease from 2011. The decline in broiler shipments is attributed to weak sales in broiler markets like Angola, Hong Kong and Georgia, which were particularly strong in August 2011. These three countries accounted for 24 percent of total U.S. broiler exports in August 2011 and slightly less than 10 percent in August 2012.
Shipments to Mexico, Cuba, Canada and Taiwan rose in August. Shipments to Mexico reached an all-time high at 114.7 million pounds, while imports of U.S. broilers by Cuba, Canada and Taiwan increased 54, 33 and 77 percent, respectively. These increases, however, were not enough to offset the reduction in U.S. broiler meat exported to other major destinations, according to the USDA.
U.S. turkey shipments in August set a new record at 77.6 million pounds, up 26 percent from August 2011 and 8 percent higher than the previous record of 71.8 million pounds shipped in October 2008. A total of 77.2 million pounds of turkey meat were exported. Mexico and China are the largest turkey markets, and accounted for 65 percent of all turkey meat exported by the U.S. in August 2012. Canada, Taiwan and the Philippines were also leading importers; shipments to the Philippines and Taiwan increased over 400 percent from 2011 numbers, while exports to Canada rose 62 percent.
For more information and statistics on U.S. poultry, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html. 

US broiler production lowered for third, fourth quarters

The U.S. broiler meat production estimate for the third quarter of 2012 was reduced by 50 million pounds to 9.3 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from 2011 numbers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
Broiler meat production in July was 3.13 billion pounds, 3 percent higher than in 2011. The number of birds slaughtered in July was up 3 percent, to 723 million, but average live weight was down slightly, to 5.76 pounds. During August and September, the number of chicks placed for growout is expected to remain at or near 2011 levels, while higher average weights are also expected to continue. However, there are 2 fewer slaughter days in September compared with 2011.
The broiler meat production estimate for the fourth quarter of 2012 was lowered to 9 billion pounds, down 150 million pounds from the previous estimate. The reduction in fourth-quarter production stems chiefly from the impact of lower expected chick placements brought about by continued high grain prices, according to the USDA. Weekly heavy hen slaughter has been above year-earlier levels for much of August, and with pullets below 2011 in July, it is likely that broiler-type egg production will remain close to or below 2011 numbers. For the five-week period ending September 1, the National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated that an average of 162 million broiler chicks was placed weekly for growout. This is almost exactly the same number of chicks placed weekly in a similar period in 2011.
In 2011, between the middle of August and the middle of October, the number of chicks placed for growout was much lower than in 2010, which resulted in fourth-quarter 2011 broiler meat production being 7 percent lower than 2010 numbers. In 2012, it is expected that the number of chicks placed for growout will be very similar to 2011. Offsetting the stability in hatchery numbers will be one more slaughter day in the fourth quarter, according to the USDA. Average weights in the fourth quarter are expected to be only slightly higher than in 2011. The new production estimate for 2012 is 36.8 billion pounds, 1.2 percent lower than 2011 numbers.
For more U.S. poultry information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html. 

US broiler production revised down for 2013

With sharply higher prices expected for both corn and soybeans, the broiler meat production forecast was lowered for 2013, by 600 million pounds, to 36.5 billion pounds, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
The production estimate for 2012 rose to 36.97 billion pounds due to a slightly higher preliminary estimate for the second quarter and an increase of 50 million pounds to the forecast for the third quarter. Broiler production is expected to be mixed in the second half of 2012, with lower production in the third quarter but higher production in the fourth quarter. Starting in the fourth quarter, sharp increases in feed grain prices and continued economic uncertainties in both the domestic and foreign sectors is expected to push broiler integrators into cutting production. Overall, the second half of 2012 is expected to see a total production of 18.5 billion pounds, slightly higher than in the same period in 2011, according to the USDA.
Broiler stocks in cold storage totaled 607 million pounds at the end of June, down 15 percent from 2011 numbers. Most categories of broiler stocks that are shown individually had strong declines compared with 2011, where stocks of whole birds were down 49 percent, breast meat down 33 percent, leg quarters down 27 percent and wings down 36 percent. These declines were countered partially by gains in cold storage holdings of legs (up 45 percent) and of the products included in the “other” category (up 7 percent). Cold storage stocks are expected to remain below year-earlier levels during the third quarter, but move slightly higher in fourth-quarter 2012 and remain higher on a year-over-year basis during 2013.
For more information and statistics on U.S. poultry, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html. 

Brazil, US top broiler meat exporters

Brazil and the U.S. are the largest exporters of broiler meat, accounting for about three-quarters of global exports during 2006–2011, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest international report.
Between 2006 and 2011, Brazil was the world’s third-largest producer of broiler meat (measured in metric tons), accounting for 15 percent of global production. The U.S. and China respectively accounted for 22 percent and 16 percent of global production during this period. Brazilian production grew 38 percent between 2006 and 2011 in response to strong demand attributable to rising domestic per-capita income, the competitive price of broiler meat compared to beef, higher demand from food service industry for frozen/precooked chicken products, and greater demand for Brazilian poultry by China and Hong Kong.
Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of broiler meat; in 2011, 25 percent of its production was exported, compared with 18 percent in the U.S., according to the USDA. Brazilian exports are highly concentrated in the Middle East and Asia. For the most part, Brazil and the U.S. have different customers and the top five markets for each country (except for Hong Kong) do not overlap. This is because Brazilian poultry is produced and packaged with specific customers in mind, while the U.S. tends to offer undifferentiated, bulk poultry products. Brazil’s willingness to differentiate its exports by offering a wide range of poultry products for different importing countries has helped Brazil gain market share in a number of third-country markets.

US broiler production to drop on grain prices, slow economy

U.S. broiler meat production for the first five months of 2012 was 15.4 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the same period in 2011, as a result of a smaller number of birds being slaughtered, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report.
This drop was offset partially by higher average weights at slaughter. Over the January–May period, average broiler weights at slaughter were 5.83 pounds, 0.7 percent higher than in the same period in 2011.
With adverse weather conditions in many areas of the country impacting corn production, rising grain prices and the sluggish economy are expected to result in a less rapid recovery in broiler production in the second half of 2012 and only slight growth in 2013, according ot the USDA. The production estimate for fourth-quarter 2012 has been reduced by 50 million pounds. The estimate for 2013 broiler meat production has been reduced by 400 million pounds to 37.1 billion pounds, up only 0.6 percent from 2012. Most of the reduction is expected to come from reduced numbers of broilers being raised, as average weights are expected to be close to those in 2012.
During May, the number of birds in the broiler breeder flock was estimated at 52.9 million, down 5.3 percent from 2011 numbers. On a year-over-year basis, the size of the broiler breeder flock has been lower than the previous year since February 2011. With this reduction in the number of broiler breeder hens, the number of eggs placed in incubators and chicks hatched are expected to continue to be lower than in 2011, potentially reducing the amount of birds available for slaughter.
Broiler meat production is expected to be down 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012 compared with 2011 numbers, with almost all of the reduction coming from lower bird slaughter, according to the USDA. These production decreases are generally expected to have a positive impact on wholesale broiler parts prices. For the remainder of 2012, cold storage holdings of broiler products are expected to gradually increase. While broiler meat production on a year-over-year basis is expected to be slightly lower in the second half of 2012, the decline is expected to be partially offset by lower exports and a sluggish domestic economy. Broiler stocks are expected to slowly rise, ending the year at 650 million pounds.
For more poultry information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html. 

US broiler production mixed for 2012

U.S. broiler meat production has been mixed in 2012, with higher production in February and April and lower production in January and March, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Total broiler meat production in April was 2.99 billion pounds, an increase of 0.7 percent from 2011 numbers, though processors reported slaughtering 683 million broilers, a decrease of 0.5 percent. Offsetting this decrease in the number of birds slaughtered was an increase in the average broiler liveweight at slaughter to 5.84 pounds, 1.4 percent higher than in 2011. The average meat yield per bird was 4.38 pounds, up 1.2 percent from 2011 numbers.
The broiler meat production estimates for both the second and third quarters of 2012 have been revised upward as the decline in eggs set diminishes and weights continue to increase. The estimate for the second quarter has been increased by 200 million pounds to 9.3 billion, and the third-quarter estimate has been increased by 100 million pounds, also to 9.3 billion. With these changes and a small adjustment to the first-quarter production, the estimate for 2012 has been increased to 36.89 billion pounds, down slightly (0.8 percent) from 2011. The increases in broiler meat production in the second and third quarters are expected to come from a combination of a higher number of birds slaughtered than originally expected and higher average weights.
Broiler stocks at the end of April totaled 577 million pounds, down 18 percent from 2011 but 30 million pounds above March. Lower broiler meat production in the second half of 2011 and through the first quarter of 2012, along with strong exports, resulted in falling stock levels. Broiler stock levels are expected to increase somewhat in the coming months to accommodate increases in production estimates. The forecasts for the second-, third- and fourth-quarter 2012 ending stocks have all increased by 25 million pounds. Even with these increases, ending stocks are expected to be below 2011 numbers until the fourth quarter of 2012.
For more poultry information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.