US farmers expected to plant record soybean acres in ’15

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  freeimages.com

  USDA says farmers are expected to plant a record number of soybean acres this year, but fewer acres of corn.

  From WATTAgNet:
  The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) says farmers are expected to plant a record number of soybean acres this year, but fewer acres of corn.
  The USDA surveyed 84,000 farmers, who indicated plans to plant a record high 84.6 million acres of soybeans, up 1 percent from last year. Corn acreage will fall 2 percent to 89.2 million acres, the fewest since 2010.
  “This shift is a result of the anticipation of stronger financial returns for soybeans,” said Purdue University agricultural economist Chris Hurt. “Prices for all crops are depressed at the current time, and margins are expected to be tight. However, soybean margins have offered the best alternative of the three major crops.”
  Soybeans also have a lower input cost than corn, by about half. Increased soybean imports to China have boosted market strength in the U.S. in recent years.
  Corn can still be profitable for farmers who own their own land and have low overhead costs, particularly in Iowa and Illinois. But, outside of those states, many farmers are looking to make more money on soybeans.
  In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, the USDA said soybean stocks totaled 1.33 billion bushels on March 1, up 34 percent from the same time last year.
  The amount of corn in storage totaled 7.74 billion bushels, up 11 percent from 2014.
  All wheat stocks totaled 1.12 billion bushels, up 6 percent from last year.

Corn, soybean acreage expected to be lower in 2015

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  The USDA says U.S. producers are expected to plant fewer acres of corn and soybeans in 2015.

  From WATTAgNet:
  The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) says U.S. producers are expected to plant fewer acres of corn and soybeans in 2015 due to lower commodity prices and reduced farm income.
  Although there is a period of depressed prices forecast, the USDA says the financial health of the agriculture sector is strong because producers took advantage of record harvests and high prices in past seasons to strengthen their bottom line.
  USDA also says U.S farmers are expected to benefit from strong global demand and new trade deals.
  “The forecast for the coming production year is bright,” said Robert Johansson, USDA’s acting chief economist. “Record production has meant that stock levels are higher and prices are lower, but producers will benefit from record asset levels and from new farm programs intended to cushion declines in farm income.”
  Eighty-nine million acres of corn is expected to be planted in 2015, down 1.6 million acres from 2014. Soybeans are expected to be planted on 83.5 million acres, a decrease of 200,000 acres. Based on USDA’s yield forecast, that would produce 13.6 billion bushels of corn and 3.8 billion bushels of soybeans.
  Corn prices during the 2015-16 marketing year are expected to average $3.50 per bushel, down from $6.89 three years ago. Soybeans are expected to fall to $9 per bushel from $14.40 three years ago.

US corn, soybean forecasts expected to increase

Forecasts for the U.S. corn and soybean markets are expected to be increased beyond the already large production outlooks in the October 10 Crop Production report, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
“Larger crop expectations stem from expectations for higher yield forecasts, with some disagreement about the prospects for changes in acreage estimates. The implication of large crops for the magnitude of year-ending stocks obviously depends on the consumption response,” Good said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected 2014-15 marketing year exports for corn at 1.75 billion bushels, 175 million less than last year. The decline reflects an expected decline in world trade, as opposed to a loss of market share.
As of September 11, 513.3 million bushels of U.S. corn had been sold for export. That is 7 million bushels less than a year earlier. Sales to China are down by 122 million bushels, but larger to Japan and several other countries including Colombia.
“Export inspections during the first three-and-a-half weeks of the marketing year were about twice as large as in the same period last year. The variation in the seasonal pattern of both export sales and shipments from year to year, however, means that early-season activity is not always a good indicator of marketing-year export demand. Still, the current pace of export activity is encouraging,” Good said.
Marketing year exports of U.S. soybeans are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, 55 million bushels more than last year. As of September 11, 935.7 million bushels of U.S. soybeans had been sold for export, 95 million more than a year ago.
Good says current indicators of corn and soybean consumption do not point to 2014-15 marketing year consumption that would deviate much from USDA projections.

Record US soybean supplies just a few weeks away

Former USDA Ag Secretary Richard Lyng during his term over 25 years ago used to say soybeans are one of our most efficient commodities we grow. Lyng was making the point that the supply and demand balance for soybeans would adjust fairly quickly to each other. When the supply of soybeans would increase, demand would follow and vice versa.
In just a few days, USDA will confirm a record supply of soybeans for the 2014/15 crop, relative to a record planted acres and, most likely, a record yield per acre. For users of soybean products, the last seven years have been challenging, as the ending carryover for soybeans has caused a minimal supply of just 2 to 3.5 weeks going back to 2007. The 2014/15 soybean crop should increase the carryover estimate to better than a six week supply of soybeans. Improved soybean supplies are a giant leap in terms of a one-year adjustment after perhaps a slower adjustment than Lyng’s comment. However, corn demand for ethanol over those same seven years obviously influenced more corn acres vs. soybean acres so the balance between supply and demand for soybeans was slightly displaced, but is catching up … in one giant leap.
Large soybean supply represents shift for feed commodities
The large soybean supply is a major shift for feed commodities. To illustrate, the “U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand” chart shows a vertical percent change of each category of a supply and demand balance sheet. The take-away from this illustration is a small increase in planted acres of nearly 11 percent and roughly a 6 percent improvement in yield over 2013 causes a very large increase in soybean ending/carryover stocks.
Demand for soybeans should improve from our current estimates over the next twelve months in the crush and export category. Regarding exports, the quality of the soybean crop should be favorable given the good weather. Export bookings of soybeans to date for the new crop year starting September 1 have also been solid. However, there is going to be some logistical transportation challenges in getting soybeans out of the U.S. Moving soybeans to the export locations of the Louisiana Gulf or the Pacific Northwest will likely challenge merchandisers and shippers. We believe the robust crop in Missouri, which is the fourth largest soybean producing state, should be able to be move soybeans to the Louisiana Gulf easier than North Dakota, which is the fifth largest soybean producing state, and will move soybeans to the Pacific Northwest export market. Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota are the first, second and third largest soybean producing states, respectively.
These five states have 39.4 million acres planted or 46.4 percent of all planted acres. With crop ratings being as high as they are in good to excellent condition as of August 3, these states should have close to 50 percent of the U.S. supply. While a large crop is welcomed by soybean users, and the market is in the process of bringing prices down, bargain prices will become a relative matter based on the transportation cost of getting the physical product to the ultimate user.
Outlook for soybean prices
To bring together all of the above into a price perspective, our current belief is soybeans have not made a low in price and have more downside price potential as well as for soybean oil and soymeal. The weather outlook is mostly good to near perfect to allow for the crop to finish well and be a bountiful harvest.
One further element of support to our current view is from a weekly U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report, called the Commitment of Traders report. Each week, the CFTC gathers data from all firms that process futures and options trading by all participants. The soybean trade chart shows who is long or short futures. More specifically, a long (buy) position is above zero and a short (sell) is below zero. For soybeans, the latest data available show the Commercial Trader, who typically is the buyer (elevators and crushers) of soybeans from farm producers, is long soybean futures. Given a record crop about to be harvested, the Commercial Trader should be short futures as a hedge or soybeans purchased from farmers. It is a normal business practice for the Commercial Trader to hedge (short) futures and maintain that position until those bushels are either consumed or traded to someone else. For those not familiar with this reporting system, it may mean nothing to you. However, this report is the commodity industry’s best attempt at transparency while maintaining anonymity for all participants who use futures and options to manage their market risks.
It is our belief that there should be some portion of the record crop in the field being priced by producers and hedged by Commercial Traders since the crop is in the field and not being consumed … yet. 

Soybean planting intentions reflect strong world demand

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) survey of U.S.crop producers in March 2014 revealed intentions to plant 81.493 million acresof soybeans this year. That is 3.765 million more than reported as planted orintended to be planted in June of last year, 4.96 million more than actuallyplanted in 2013, and 4.042 million more than the previous record acreage in2009.
Planting intentions exceed last year’s acreage in every major soybean state except Missouri, with the largest increases reported for Minnesota, Nebraska and North Dakota.  A slightly smaller percentage of plantings likely will be double-cropped acreage because soft red-winter wheat acreage was reported to be down by 16 percent from acreage of a year ago.
According to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good, the large increase in soybean planting intentions reflects strong world demand for soybeans and the resulting high prices of soybeans relative to other crops, particularly corn.
“As the planting season gets under way, the job of the markets is to direct final planting decisions of major spring-planted crops,” Good said. “That is a complicated process surrounded by a lot of uncertainty about the nature of the growing season and resulting yields, as well as uncertainty about the strength of demand for U.S. crops during the year ahead. That demand strength depends on the magnitude of production in the rest of the world and a number of economic and political developments. There are differing and changing assessments of all of these factors. The market, however, must direct planting decisions without knowing the outcome of these important factors.  Ideally, production would be at levels that provide ‘reasonable’ prices for both producers and consumers of the crops and some level of reserves at the end of the year,” he said.
The USDA projects consumption of U.S soybeans and soybeans imported in to the United States during the current marketing year at 3.36 billion bushels, equal to the record consumption during the 2009-10 marketing year. Good said that consumption is large in spite of continued high prices and back-to-back record production of soybeans in the rest of the world during the 2012-13 and 2013-14 marketing years. World consumption of soybeans during the current marketing year is projected at a record 9.884 billion bushels, 40 percent more than consumed 10 years ago.
“Much of the growth in world consumption has occurred in China, up 130 percent in 10 years,” Good said. “Although it may not be reasonable to expect Chinese consumption to continue to grow at the pace of the past 10 years, there is no sign of a reversal in consumption. The United States should continue to have a large share of exports to China even with another large South American crop in 2015. Record-high livestock prices and a likely increase in biodiesel production should keep domestic soybean consumption large as well,” he said.
According to Good, under the assumptions of “reasonable” prices, large South American production, and slower but continued growth in world soybean consumption during the year ahead, consumption of U.S. and imported soybeans should be at least as large as during the current marketing year. With stocks of soybeans at the start of the 2014-15 marketing year at the projected level of 135 million bushels, a 50 million bushel decline in marketing-year imports from the record level of this year, and a more comfortable level of year-ending stocks near 185 million bushels, the 2014 U.S. soybean crop would have to total 3.395 billion bushels to accommodate consumption of 3.36 billion bushels. That would be 106 million bushels larger than the 2013 crop and 36 million bushels larger than the record crop of 2009.

USDA forecasts 6 percent increase in soybean acres

Producers across the United States intend to plant an estimated 81.5 million acres of soybeans in 2014, up 6 percent from last year and an all-time record high, according to the Prospective Plantings report released March 31 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
If realized, soybeans will surpass the previous record of 77.5 million acres planted in the United States set in 2009.
Planted acreage intentions for soybeans are up or unchanged in all states except Missouri and Oklahoma. The largest increase is expected in North Dakota with a record high 5.65 million acres, an increase of one million acres from 2013. If realized, the planted area of soybeans in Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Wisconsin also will be the largest on record.
Corn growers intend to plant 91.7 million acres in 2014, down 4 percent from 2013 and, if realized, the lowest planted acreage since 2010. Expected returns for corn are anticipated to be lower in 2014 compared with recent years. Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts and Utah are expected to increase planted acreage from last year. If realized, planted acres in Idaho will be a record high.
The Prospective Plantings report provides the first official, survey based estimates of U.S. farmers' 2014 planting intentions. NASS's acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of more than 84,000 farm operators across the United States.

Many farmers likely to shift from corn to soybeans in 2014

U.S. farmers are likely to plant less corn for the 2014 harvest, largely because the input costs will be too high. Chip Flory, editor of Pro Farmer, estimates that corn acreage could decrease by as much as 2 million acres in 2014.
Flory, along with Tom Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC, spoke about the current and upcoming year for feed production during the Grain & Meat Outlook Webinar. The webinar, which was the third in a series and can be viewed online, was hosted by WATTAgNet and Farm Journal, and sponsored by Nutriad.
With a healthy 2013 corn crop mostly harvested, corn prices are lowering. ProFarmer is estimating an average price of $4.75 per bushel for the 2013-2014 marketing year, compared to $6.90 for the previous marketing year. But much of the 2013 harvested crop is going into the bin, keeping the prices from dropping as much as they could.
With an estimated soybean to corn price ratio of 2.44:1, there are financial and other incentives for farmers to shift from corn production to soybean production, Flory said.
"Normally, it takes about 2.5 to move a lot of acres over to soybeans, but there are a lot of corn-on-corn growers that are looking for a break," Flory said, saying there are agronomic reasons such as weeds that will factor into their decisions.
It isn't just soybeans that corn has to compete with, he added. Just a few days before participating in the webinar, Flory said he spoke to some growers who are strongly considering planting less corn and more cotton.
"In the south, there are cotton growers that also grow corn and soybeans. Even if they haven't grown cotton for the last several years, they're still cotton producers. If they've still got the equipment, we're going to see some acres go back to cotton and leave corn, because they're looking at 80 cent futures out there. With 80 cent futures for cotton vs. $4.75 corn, some will be thinking maybe it's time to get that cotton picker out again," said Flory.
The current production costs involved may also prompt more producers to grow more wheat to replace cotton, Flory said. Elam agreed with Flory's assessment that fewer corn acres will be planted to make room for soybeans and wheat, but he added that some less widely grown crops that people may not ordinarily think of, such as sorghum, will also be rotated in.

US corn and soybean acreages not final, says economist

Conflicting reports of U.S. planted corn and soybean acreage, even as the current harvest is underway, have left room for the fluctuation of the final number, according to University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good.
"For corn, acreage that had been reported to FSA (the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Farm Service Agency) as planted totaled 91.428 million, 2.657 million more than reported the previous month," said Good. "Based on survey data, the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has estimated planted acreage at 97.379 million acres. Acreage reported to FSA is expected to be less than the NASS estimate because not all producers are enrolled in programs that require reporting of planted acreage to the FSA.
"Planted acreage reported to FSA as of the September report accounted for 93.9 percent of the total estimated by NASS and the difference was 5.951 million acres," said Good. "Over the previous six years, the final total corn acreage reported to FSA averaged 96.9 percent of the final NASS estimate, in a range of 96.4 to 97.5 percent. The difference between the FSA and NASS acreage estimates averaged 2.785 million acres, in a range of 2.381 in 2007 to 3.295 million in 2011.
The difference between the corn acreage reported to FSA and acreage estimated by NASS in 2013 may be smaller when final estimates are available, according to Good. "If the final difference is equal to the largest difference of the past six years (2011), the gap will narrow by 2.5 to 2.6 million acres," he said. "Planted acreage of corn reported to FSA increased from September to the final estimate by only 228,000 acres in 2011 and 213,000 in 2012. The increase may be larger this year due to the lateness of planting and the extension of the FSA deadline for reporting planted acreage. It would be a surprise if the increase totaled 2.5 to 2.6 million acres, leading to the expectation that the NASS estimate of planted acreage may be reduced in future Crop Production reports."
Good said that for soybeans, acreage that had been reported to FSA as planted totaled 74.659 million, 2.598 million more than reported in August. Based on survey data, NASS has estimated planted acreage at 77.178 million acres. Planted acreage reported to FSA as of the September report accounted for 96.7 percent of the total estimated by NASS and the difference was 2.519 million acres.
Over the previous six years, the final total soybean acreage reported to FSA averaged 98.2 percent of the final NASS estimate of planted acreage, in a range of 97.1 to 98.8 percent. The difference between the FSA and NASS acreage estimates averaged 1.304 million acres, in a range of 0.917 million in 2008 to 1.884 million in 2007. "History suggests that the current gap between FSA and NASS acreage numbers will narrow by about one million acres," said Good.
Planted acreage of soybeans reported to FSA increased from September to the final estimate by only 190,000 acres in 2011 and 161,000 in 2012, suggesting that the NASS estimate in 2013 could be reduced by as much as 800,000 acres, according to Good. "That is not a large decline and is well within the experience of the past 10 years," he said. "With an average yield of 41.2 bushels, an 800,000-acre reduction in the estimate of harvested acreage would reduce the soybean production estimate by 33 million bushels and result in year-ending stocks of about 120 million bushels, based on current consumption forecasts."

Minnesota Soybean launches soybean research website

The Minnesota Soybean Research & Promotion Council (MSR&PC), a national leader in farmer-directed soybean research, has launched a new soybean research website -- mnsoybeanresearch.com. The site features the latest in checkoff-funded research in order to provide Minnesota farmers with new, more efficient and profitable ways to improve soybean yields, soybean quality and environmental performance.
"We feel the investment in research at the University of Minnesota is very important for soybean farmers because we are able to set the direction of the research. The research is targeted towards current farmer needs, making it very timely for us," commented Keith Schrader, farmer from Nerstrand, Minn. and Chairman of the Production Action Team.
The website consists of a downloadable 2013 annual report, videos and research summaries. This will be a resource for farmers looking for the latest information focused on growing soybeans as well as pest management. Issues ranging from iron deficiency chlorosis, aphids and soybean cyst nematode are some of the research content covered.
The investment is made on behalf of Minnesota's soybean farmers; however, research is only the first step in helping soybean farmers improve yields and soybean quality. Just as important as the research itself is the transfer of the technology from the researcher's lab or plot to the farmer's field. The website seeks to provide farmers with the knowledge and implementable tools to help increase yields and profitability.
"For more than 36 years, the soybean farmers of Minnesota, working through check-off dollars, have invested in research that allows them to remain profitable, sustainable and environmentally sound in production agriculture. Their continued investment in the science of agriculture will ensure soybean production is part of Minnesota's farming future," stated Paul Meints, MSR&PC Research Program Manager.
The website contains relevant and easily digestible research information. Videos displaying research on aphids, soybean cyst nematode, breeding and genetics, production research, production hazards, water quality and future research are included. University of Minnesota researchers are featured in the videos, presenting their research findings and making recommendations to growers. These videos were developed to provide farmers with the research and information that can be applied on their farms.
The interactive nature of the website allows farmers to directly connect with researchers at the U of M to get answers to questions on everything from pest and weed control to basic soybean agronomy. It also allows the MSR&PC to continue to stay on top of the latest research results and communicate those results with farmers in real time. Visit www.mnsoybeanresearch.com to check it out.

US corn, soybean production uncertainty expected to continue

U.S. corn and soybean prices are likely to continue to be unsettled as harvest reports become more numerous and the market forms expectations about the October production forecasts, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
"In each of the previous three years, when the U.S. average corn yield was below trend value, the October production forecast was below the September forecast," said Good. "The difference ranged from 21 million bushels last year to 496 million bushels in 2010. Over the past 30 years, however, the October forecast was above the September forecast in 18 years and below the September forecast in 12 years.
"This year, there continues to be a range of expectations about both the October forecast and the final estimate of the U.S. average corn yield," he said. "Yield uncertainty is increased by the generally dry end to the growing season in many areas and by the late maturity of the crop where planting was delayed."
 According to Good, current corn production uncertainty also comes from uncertainty about the magnitude of the area to be harvested for grain.The U.S. Department of Agriculture's June Agricultural Survey revealed more corn acreage planted and to be harvested for grain than expected by the market. On August 15, the USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) released a prevented acres report that indicated 3.4 million acres of corn were prevented from being planted in 2013 due to adverse weather conditions. That report fueled expectations that the USDA's National Agricultural Service (NASS) would eventually reduce the estimates of planted acreage and acreage harvested for grain, according to Good.
"Typically, FSA-certified acreage data is reflected in the October Crop Production report," he said. "FSA is scheduled to release updated estimates of planted acreage on September 17. That report will influence expectations for the acreage estimates in the October Crop Production report. Without a change in the yield forecast, prospects for 2013-2014 marketing-year ending stocks below 1.5 billion bushels would require NASS to lower the harvested acreage estimate by more than 2 million acres. Such a large reduction seems unlikely."
Uncertainty about the NASS October forecast and the final estimate of the U.S. average soybean yield also reflects late-season heat and dryness in a large portion of the production area and late maturity in some areas. Good said that some of the impact of adverse weather was likely reflected in the September yield forecast that was 1.4 bushels below the August forecast. "Most do not expect the October forecast to be above the September forecast, but there is little agreement on the possible magnitude of a smaller forecast," said Good.
At this juncture, said Good, there is a high probability that the 2013 U.S. corn crop will be large enough to result in a meaningful increase in stocks by the end of the current marketing year. "Prospects of ample supplies point to an average marketing year farm price in the mid-$4 range," he said. "Cash prices would be expected to follow a typical large-crop pattern of establishing lows at harvest time followed by modest increases that would about cover the cost of storage."
Good said that soybean prices are expected to remain high relative to corn prices with a marketing-year average farm price in the high-$12 range. "The price pattern for soybeans may follow more of a short-crop pattern, however, particularly if the production forecast declines in October," he said. "Such a pattern would point to the highest prices at harvest and declining prices as consumption adjusts and the South American crop advances."

US soybean yield to drop for fourth year in a row

Continued dry weather in the Midwest will leave the U.S. soybean yield at 39 bushels per acre, 3.6 bushels per acre below the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast and the indication of a fourth successive year of declining yields that began in 2009, according to Chicago-based broker Allendale. The broker has pegged the total harvest at 2.98 billion bushels - 275 million bushels below the USDA estimate, and a drop of some 240 million bushels year on year.
For corn, Allendale predicts a yield figure of 153.4 bushels per acre, 1 bushel per acre below the official USDA figure and above the 123.4 bushels per acre achieved in 2012, when corn suffered from the worst drought in decades, with soybean crops revived by rains in late August and September. "While we did see some problems with the western Corn Belt, our survey found higher-than-USDA estimates for the eastern Corn Belt," said Allendale chief strategist Rich Nelson. A production figure of 13.676 billion bushels, while 87 million bushels below the USDA forecast, would still be a record result. "But for soybeans, there are some problems, which the market has yet to recognize," said Nelson.
Consultancy Lanworth cut its forecast for the U.S. corn and soybean yields for a third successive week, citing low rainfall in August and early in September. "Outlooks indicate continued warm temperatures this week but with extremely low precipitation across much of the production area," said Lanworth, lowering its estimate for the corn yield by 0.8 bushels per acre to 151.6 bushels per acre, and for soybeans by 0.4 bushels per acre to 40.4 bushels per acre. For soybeans, "low precipitation is correlated with below trend soybean pod weights and implies that gains in the USDA's soybean yield estimate are highly unlikely."
In Iowa, the top corn- and soybean-producing state, Lanworth said that "the shift from historically wet conditions during planting and establishment (April-June) to historically dry conditions during yield formation (July-September) is without precedent."

Corn, soybeans rally as hot weather threatens US crop yields

Corn rose the most in 14 months and soybean futures jumped the most since 2011 as hot, dry Midwest weather threatens U.S. crop yields, according to reports.
Temperatures are expected to average as much as 14 degrees F above normal through the first week of September, with little rain in the Midwest. July and August will be the driest since 1936 in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, according to T-Storm Weather LLC. Corn production is predicted to be 2.2 percent below the government August 12 forecast, while the soybean harvest will be 3 percent below forecast.
Corn futures for December delivery rose 6.5 percent to close at $5.005 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade on August 26, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since June 25, 2012. Earlier, the price touched $5.0825, the highest since July 16. Soybean futures for delivery in November jumped 4.6 percent to $13.895 a bushel on the CBOT on August 26, the biggest advance for a most-active contract since October 11, 2011. Earlier, the oilseed rose by the 70-cent exchange limit to $13.98. Prices rose 5.5 percent the week of August 19, the third straight increase.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has cut its corn-crop forecast three times in as many months, predicting production of 13.763 billion bushels. While that would be a record, it is down from 14.14 billion bushels expected in May. On August 23, Iowa-based Pro Farmer predicted the crop would be 13.46 billion bushels. Soybean output may fall below the government's estimate of 3.255 billion bushels, reaching 3.158 billion bushels, after planting delays and unusually cool, dry weather stunted growth, according to Pro Farmer.

Crop tour results in lowered forecasts for corn and soybean yields

Chip Flory, editor, Pro Farmer, and crop analyst, presented the results of Pro Farmer's 21st annual crop tour during the Pro Farmer/WATT Grain & Meat Outlook webinar. He said that as a result of late planting caused by wet spring weather in the Corn Belt, much of the corn and the soybean crops are at immature stages for late August and will require several weeks of good growing conditions to reach their respective yield potentials. 
Flory said that the current hot dry conditions in the Midwest are not going to help the crops and that an early frost would also damage the crops. Normally, the corn and soybean crops would be farther along in their development by late August and would not be impacted as significantly by weather conditions in September and early October. Flory said that the next six to seven weeks will be very important for the corn and the soybean crops, and that this increases the margin for error in estimating the average yields for the country.
For the 2013-14 crop year in the U.S., Pro Farmer projects that the planted acres for corn will be 95.4 million acres, or 2 million less than what the USDA WASDE forecast on August 12. The harvested acres are projected to be 87.3 million acres by Pro Farmer, 1.8 million acres less than the USDA forecast. Pro Farmer forecast that the national corn yield will be 154.1 bushels per acre, or 0.3 bushels per acre less than the USDA forecast. This nets a total corn harvest forecast of 13.46 billion bushels, or three quarters of a percent less than the USDA forecast.
The Pro Farmer forecast for the average price per bushel of corn for the 2013-14 crop year is $5.75, which is slightly higher than the USDA forecast range of $4.50-5.30.
For the 2013-14 crop year, Pro Farmer forecast 76.5 million acres planted in soybeans, 0.7 million less than the August 12 USDA WASDE forecast. The expectation is that 75.6 million acres will be harvested and that the average yield will be 41.8 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushels per acre less than the USDA forecast. This produces a total soybean harvest forecast of 3.158 billion bushels, which is around 3 percent (or 97 million bushels) less than the USDA forecast. 
ProFarmer's projected average price per bushel of soybeans is $13.50, which is substantially higher than the USDA WASDE report's projected range of $10.35-12.35 per bushel.

US corn, soybean production forecasts smaller than expected

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's August Crop Production report forecast smaller-than-expected U.S. corn and soybean crops for 2013. The corn crop forecast is at 13.763 billion bushels, 242 million bushels smaller than the average trade guess, and the soybean crop forecast sits at 3.255 billion bushels, 81 million bushels smaller than the average trade guess.
The forecast of corn area to be harvested for grain was unchanged from the June forecast of 89.135 million acres, but the average yield forecast of 154.4 bushels was 3.3 bushels lower than expected. Some of the larger yield forecast surprises were for Illinois and Indiana, where forecasts of 165 and 166 bushels, respectively, are well below the record yields anticipated based on generally favorable weather and high crop condition ratings, according to the University of Illinois. In contrast, the yield forecasts of 166 bushels for Minnesota and 163 bushels for Iowa are much higher than anticipated based on extensive planting delays and relatively low crop condition ratings.
The inventory of old crop corn on hand at the beginning of the 2013-2014 marketing year on September 1 is forecast at 719 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from July's projection. Corn exports have staged a small late-summer rally and will be marginally larger than earlier forecast for the 2012-2013 marketing year. For the upcoming marketing year, the USDA lowered the projection of feed and residual use by 50 million bushels, reflecting expectations of less "residual" use with a smaller crop forecast. The projection of exports was reduced by 25 million bushels, reflecting larger production and export forecasts for the Ukraine.
The projection of corn used for ethanol production was unchanged at 4.9 billion bushels, implying little growth in consumption of ethanol blends above 10 percent during the year ahead. Stocks at the end of the 2013-2014 marketing year are projected at 1.837 billion bushels, 122 million less than projected in July. The marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $4.50 to $5.30, $0.10 higher than projected in July.
The estimate of area planted to soybeans was reduced by 550,000 acres from the June forecast, with most of the reduction coming in Kansas, Minnesota, North Carolina and South Dakota. The U.S average soybean yield is forecast at 42.6 bushels, about one bushel below the average trade guess. The yield forecast of 47 bushels for Illinois was surprisingly low while the forecast of 46 bushels for Iowa was larger than generally expected, according to the University of Illinois.
The forecast of the inventory of old crop soybeans at the beginning of the 2013-2014 marketing year on September 1 was unchanged from July's projection of 125 million bushels. However, the forecast of the domestic crush during the year ending in August was increased by 25 million bushels, the forecast of imports was increased by 10 million bushels, and the forecast of exports was reduced by 15 million bushels. With just over three weeks left in the 2012-2013 marketing year, it appears that exports will be slightly larger than the revised forecast.
For the upcoming marketing year, the forecast of the domestic soybean crush was reduced by 20 million bushels and the forecast of exports was reduced by 65 million bushels. The lower export forecast reflects anticipation of loss of market share to Argentina. Year-ending stocks of U.S. soybeans are projected at 220 million bushels, 75 million less than forecast in July. The marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $10.35 to $12.35, $0.60 above July's projection.
For soybean oil, the forecast of consumption for biodiesel was increased by 200 million pounds, to a total of 5.7 billion pounds. That compares to expected consumption this year of only 4.6 billion pounds. The increase reflects the likely need to increase biodiesel production to meet the Renewable Fuels Standards for 2014, although the preliminary rules for 2014 have not yet been announced by the EPA. The forecast of domestic soybean oil consumption for other purposes was reduced by 200 million pounds.

Production of corn, soybeans projected to increase in 2014

Corn and soybean production both in the United States and worldwide are expected to increase in 2014, as the United States Department of Agriculture has offered its first look into the year ahead.
The projections, released in the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, show a bright spot for livestock and poultry producers, who rely on the grain supply for feed. The report was issued on May 10.
While the forecasts may bode well  for animal agriculture, economists are still cautious.
"All of this is still in the hands of Mother Nature. She will dictate the weather to allow for the amount of corn and soybeans that will be planted and the growing season weather," said Todd Davis, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. "The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is a good starting point for the projections, but there is a long way to go before the uncertainty of 2013 production and stocks become resolved."
Corn projections
Corn production for the 2103-2014 season is forecast to increase to 965.94 million metric tons, a steady improvement from the 857.12 million for this season and the 882.96 million from a year ago.
U.S. production for 2014 is forecast at 359.17 million metric tons, substantially moving up from the 273.83 million for this year and the 313.95 recorded last year.
Total foreign production is forecast for next year at 606.77 million metric tons, compared to the 583.29 million forecast for this year and 569.01 million recorded last year. Production in Argentina and South Africa is expected to increase for the upcoming year, but decrease slightly in Brazil. Mexican production is projected to improve each year.
U.S. ending stocks for 2014 are expected to be at 50.91 million metric tons, while the worldwide estimates are at 154.63 million. That indicates a huge gain from the estimated ending stocks number forecast for 2013 at 19.29 million metric tons in the U.S. and 125.43 million worldwide. The figures recorded at the end of last season were 132.22 million worldwide and 25.12 in the U.S.
Soybean projections
The projections for the 2013-14 season call for worldwide soybean production of 285.5 million metric tons produced, an significant improvement over the 269.11 million metric tons forecast for this year and the 239.46 million metric tons produced last year.
United States production is forecast at 92.26 million metric tons for the upcoming year, making more than a 10 million metric ton increase from this season's projections t 82.06 million metric tons. This season's projections slide back from last year's total of 84.19 million metric tons.
Production from other countries shows a gain each year. Next year's crop has been forecast at 193.24 million metric tons, which is up from 187.05 million for this year and the 155.27 produced last year. Argentina and Brazil made the biggest gains this year in foreign markets, with production in Argentina jumping from 40.10 million metric tons last year to 51 million this year. Next year's totals from Argentina are forecast at 54.50 million metric tons. Brazilian production is forecast to improve from last year's total of 66.5 million metric tons to 83.5 million this year and 85 million next year.
The predicted increase is a result of both higher expected acres planted and improved yields.
Ending stocks will go up next year both in the U.S. and worldwide, with 74.96 million metric tons globally and 7.22 million metric tons in the U.S. The estimates for the end of this year are forecast at 62.46 million worldwide and 3.39 million in the U.S., compared to the respective totals of 54.71 million and 4.61 million for the end of last year.

US 2012 soybean crop slightly lower in protein, says survey

The average protein concentrations for the 2012 U.S. soybean crop was slightly lower compared to the 2011 U.S. crop and average oil content was slightly higher, according to a survey supported by the American Soybean Association and the U.S. Soybean Export Council.
The average U.S. soybean protein concentration was 0.5 percent lower in 2012, at 34.3 percent, and average oil was virtually unchanged (0.3 percent higher at 18.5 percent), when compared with 2011 numbers (34.8 percent and 18.2 percent, respectively). The Western Corn Belt states showed lower protein concentrations (34 percent) than the U.S. crop as a whole. Midsouth and Southeast states commonly produce a soybean crop with higher protein concentrations (35.4 percent and 35.2 percent, respectively) than other regions, according to the survey results.
In 2012, the study was expanded to include amino acid analyses. When expressed as a percent of the protein, the 10 essential amino acids (lysine, methionine, threonine, tryptophan, cysteine, leucine, isoleucine, histidine, phenylalanine and valine) did not appear to vary between regions.
Sample kits were mailed to producers selected so that response distribution would closely match state soybean production. In all, 1,903 samples were received. These were analyzed at the University of Minnesota for protein and oil concentration by near-infrared spectroscopy using a Perten DA7250 diode array instrument (Huddinge, Sweden) equipped with calibration equations developed by The University of Minnesota in cooperation with Perten.

US corn, soybean stocks at eight-year low

U.S. corn stocks are expected to be at 1.113 billion bushels when the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its quarterly stocks report on September 28, the lowest level in eight years in spite of an early harvest that brought more than 1 billion bushels of grain into the supply pipeline, according to surveyed industry analysts. The report will also mark the end of the 2011–2012 marketing season.
The estimate is down 15 million bushels from the 2010–2011 season and down from the USDA's September 12 estimate of 1.181 billion bushels. U.S. corn export shipments in the 2011–2012 season totaled 37.9 million metric tons (1.49 billion bushels), according to USDA, below the full-season forecast of 39.12 million metric tons (1.54 billion bushels). The USDA said 1.667 million metric tons of 2011–2012 sales were carried over to the next marketing year.
Price increases due to the drought began rationing demand and the early harvested crop added bushels to stocks as of the September 1 quarter, which could lead to extreme price volatility if the USDA's estimate varies significantly from trade expectations, said experts. "The September grain stocks report has turned into quite a crapshoot," said Bryce Knorr, senior editor for Farm Futures Magazine. "While most of the surprises focused on corn the last two years, there's also uncertainty for soybeans and wheat." According to the analysts polled, U.S. wheat stocks on September 1 were at 2.278 billion bushels, up from 2.147 billion in 2011, and soybean stocks were at 131 million, down from 215 million in 2011.

Soybeans
U.S. September 1 soybean stocks are predicted to drop to 131 million bushels, according to the analysts, the lowest level since 112 million in 2003–2004. The figure closely matches the 130 million bushels that the USDA forecast earlier in September for 2011–2012 soy ending stocks. Some predicted a higher number, however, saying that carryover stocks from the previous year might be higher than they looked on paper. "I'm thinking that there is more likely to be a bearish surprise than a bullish surprise in the report," said Anne Frick, an oilseeds analyst with Jeffries Bache.

US corn stocks down, soybeans up from 2010 numbers

Old crop corn stocks on September 1 totaled 1.13 billion bushels, down 34% from the same time in 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Of the total corn stocks, 315 million bushels are stored on farms, down 35% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 813 million bushels, are down 33% from a year ago. The June-August 2011 indicated disappearance is 2.54 billion bushels, compared with 2.60 billion bushels during the same period in 2010.
Old crop soybeans stored on September 1 totaled 215 million bushels, up 42% from 2010. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 48.5 million bushels, up 37% from the same time in 2010. Off-farm stocks, at 166 million bushels, are up 44% from last September. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2011 totaled 405 million bushels, down 4% from the same period in 2010.

Iowa Farm Bureau study assesses farmland flooding losses

Flooding along the Missouri River in 2011 is estimated to have caused at least $207 million in damages to crops and related economic activities in six western Iowa counties that border the river, according to a recently released study commissioned by the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation.
The study analyzed the direct and indirect economic impacts from crop losses due to flooded fields in six Iowa counties, as well as lost wages and other impacts that would not occur because of lost crop income, said Dave Miller, IFBF director of research and commodity services. The study also factored in seed, fertilizer and other input costs that farmers had already invested in their 2011 corn and soybean crops before the damage to the fields. Potential crop insurance indemnity payments that farmers will receive and payments from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Supplemental Revenue Assistance payments program were also taken into account.
The study found that Iowa's Fremont County suffered the highest losses at an estimated $52.2 million, including $43.9 million in direct crop income loss and $8.3 million indirect losses from the damaged fields. “This study shows the repercussions of the lost cropland and economic activity in these counties,” said Miller. “On a business level, farmers won’t be purchasing machines or inputs such as fertilizer for land. But there is also a household effect with reduced expenditures in those counties.”

Flooding in US Midwest may threaten corn, soybean land in Corn Belt

Farmers are worried that flooding along the Missouri River may threaten cropland in the western Corn Belt, which they hoped would provide a strong harvest in the fall to make up for expected shortfalls in the eastern U.S. Midwest, according to reports.
Analysts estimated that between 300,000 and 800,000 acres of farmland for corn and soybeans in Iowa and Nebraska may be threatened by floods. Farmers who have been unable to plant corn because of the rain and flooding in the eastern Corn Belt were considering planting different crops or collecting insurance payments to get by this year.
Total planted corn acreage in Iowa, the largest corn-producing state, and Nebraska, the third-largest, was expected to be 23.4 million acres this year. Planting was 98% complete for corn in Iowa and 94% complete in Nebraska.