World grain supplies tightening due to lower production, higher consumption

World grains supplies are tightening, according to a January 2011 market review from the International Grains Council, with production in 2010/11 expected to decline by 3.8% to 1.73 billion metric tons while consumption rises by 1.4% to 1.79 billion metric tons.
According to the report, 678 million metric tons of wheat was produced in 2009/10, compared to 813 million metric tons of maize. Estimates for wheat in 2010/11 include that production will work out at 647 million metric tons and consumption at 661 million metric tons. For maize, an output of 809 million metric tons is estimated as consumption grows to 842 million metric tons.
The outlook for northern hemisphere grains crops in 2011/12 appears generally favorable at this early stage, said the IGC, although much will depend on the extent to which growers expand plantings of spring crops, especially maize and barley. After last year’s sharp drop, the global wheat area is projected to rise by about 3%. Assuming average yields, wheat production globally is forecast to rise to 670 million metric tons.

Corn demand will outweigh wheat in 2010-2011 feed harvest

More maize (corn) and less wheat will be used in the world’s feeds in harvest year 2010/11, suggests the latest market review from the International Grains Council (IGC).
Feed manufacturers are expected to make sharp reductions to reduce their use of wheat because of lower availability and higher prices after a smaller crop, with world wheat production in 2010 projected to be down to 651 million metric tons from 677 million tons in 2009. However, there should be a firm demand for maize to include in animal feeds. The IGC projects the total feed use of corn to rise from last year’s 478 million metric tons to 483 million tons in 2010/11, since a record crop of 823 million tons is in prospect.

World feed manufacturers projected to use more grain

World feed manufacturers are projected to use more grain in harvest year 2010/11 as global economic expansion resumes and encourages more meat consumption, which in turn promotes extra demand for animal feeds.
The projection is contained in the latest market report from the International Grains Council (IGC), which says that 481 million metric tons of maize (corn) is likely to be used in feeds worldwide compared with 476 million tons in 2009/10.
The feed sector’s demand for all grains is increasing, it comments, but large availabilities of distillers dried grains and high-protein oilseed meals could restrain maize incorporations. Although industrial uses of maize are expected to increase by 8 million metric tons over this season to 214 million tons, this would be the smallest rate of growth in 10 years -- reflecting the slowing expansion of the U.S. ethanol industry.
The report suggests that an expansion of the feed market will also help global wheat consumption in 2010/11 to reach a total of 654 million metric tons, about 9 million tons more than in 2009/10. However, this is 2 million tons down from earlier IGC forecasts, because of larger supplies of competing feeds. World production of maize in 2010 is forecast at a record 809 million metric tons, some 6 million tons more than in 2009, while the projection for this year’s wheat output is a reduction of 17 million tons to 658 million tons.