Kansas added to states reporting fumonisin in corn

One new U.S. state was added to the list of states reporting fumonisin in corn, according to Neogen’s Monday Mycotoxin report from November 16.
Meanwhile, the U.S. corn harvest is advancing, with 93 percent of the harvest completed. That is 15 points ahead of this time last year and 5 points ahead of the five-year average.
Mostly favorable weather across the country has helped harvest progress. In the past week, temperatures east of the Mississippi River averaged 6 degrees above normal, while temperatures in the west were slightly below normal. Precipitation was near normal, although heavy rains fell in the Mississippi Delta and parts of the Southeast.
Texas and Colorado are the only states that remain behind average harvest progress for this time.
The new confirmed report of fumonisin was in Kansas, at more than 9 parts per million (ppm). This is in addition to the previously reported list of:

• Texas
• North Carolina
• California

States that have reported deoxynivalenol are:

• Pennsylvania
• Virginia
• Indiana
• Ohio
• New York
• Wisconsin
• Missouri
• Illinois
• Iowa
• South Dakota
• Michigan
• Minnesota

No new states were added to the previously reported list of states with confirmed reports of aflatoxin. Those states that have reported aflatoxin are:

• Georgia
• Texas
• North Carolina
• South Carolina
• Virginia
• Oklahoma
• Kansas
• Tennessee
• Alabama

South Dakota added to states reporting DON in corn

One new U.S. state recorded deoxynivalenol (DON) in its corn crop in the past week as the corn harvest progressed, according to Neogen’s Monday Mycotoxin Report from November 9.
The new confirmed reports of DON in corn were in South Dakota, at 2 parts per million.
That is in addition to the previously reported list:

• Missouri
• Illinois
• Iowa
• Michigan
• Minnesota
• Wisconsin
• Indiana
• Ohio
• New York

Neogen said DON levels are increasing in some of the later-maturing corn.
No new states were added to the previously reported list of states with confirmed reports of aflatoxin. Those states that have reported aflatoxin are:

• Georgia
• Texas
• North Carolina
• South Carolina
• Virginia
• Oklahoma
• Kansas
• Tennessee
• Alabama

Above-average temperatures across the U.S. in the past week accelerated corn dry-down, and precipitation was near normal in most areas.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that 85 percent of corn has been harvested. That is well ahead of the 62 percent harvested at this time last year, and ahead of the five-year average of 79 percent.

US corn harvest makes big strides

The U.S. corn harvest made strong progress in the past week, according to Neogen’s Monday Mycotoxin Report from November 2. As harvest progressed, additional states reported mycotoxins.
In the past week, above-average temperatures across the U.S. accelerated the corn harvest, and major advances were made.
Corn maturity in the U.S. has reached 100 percent. The amount of corn harvested has reached 75 percent, well ahead of 44 percent one year ago, and ahead of the five-year average of 68 percent.

New reports of mycotoxins

Alabama was added to the list of states with confirmed reports of aflatoxin, at more than 20 parts per billion. That is in addition to the previously reported list:

• Georgia
• Texas
• North Carolina
• South Carolina
• Virginia
• Oklahoma
• Kansas
• Tennessee

New confirmed reports of DON in corn came from Indiana (more than 1 part per million), Ohio (more than 2 ppm), New York (more than 3 ppm).
That is in addition to the previously reported list:

• Missouri
• Illinois
• Iowa
• Michigan
• Minnesota
• Wisconsin

US corn harvest, development advance due to warm weather

Weather conditions have allowed corn development and the corn harvest to advance across the U.S. in the past week, with the exception of South Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic region, which were affected by rains from Hurricane Joaquin, according to this week's Monday Mycotoxin Report from Neogen.
Hurricane Joaquin brought torrential and record-breaking rain to South Carolina, and the Mid-Atlantic region also received rain. Corn harvest in these regions is delayed, which will have a negative effect on corn that is still in the fields.
Across the country, 27 percent of corn has been harvested, compared with 32 percent for the five-year average. Iowa is 9 percent behind normal, Minnesota and South Dakota are 10 percent behind normal, and Wisconsin is 7 percent behind normal.
The October 6 U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report shows corn in the fully mature stage has advanced across the country to 86 percent compared with 83 percent for the five-year average. Corn development is 11 percent behind normal in Texas, 10 percent behind normal in Michigan, and 9 percent behind normal in Wisconsin.
Richard Brock of Brock Associates said corn yields in northern states are offsetting much lower corn yields in southern states, particularly Indiana, Ohio and Missouri.
He added that ethanol exports have dropped off and imports have increased. This is primarily caused by much cheaper sugar prices in South America, which resulted in the Brazilian government shifting from exporting sugar to processing it into sugar-based ethanol and flooding many countries with cheaper ethanol prices.
Brock said world carryover corn supplies will be slightly lower than they were a year ago, which will put a bottom in the corn market.
“While we don’t expect the market to be significantly higher, the downside risk is now limited and this will result in increased corn acres from U.S. farmers in the spring of 2016,” Brock said.

US corn crop rating improves in latest report

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said corn conditions nationally were up one point to 69 percent good to excellent this week, as improvements in Colorado, Minnesota, Ohio and South Dakota offset slippage in Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin.
Soybeans were unchanged at 63 percent good to excellent, while winter wheat slipped to 40 percent good to excellent from last week's 41 percent. Ninety-six percent of the crop is planted, leaving about 3.2 million acres left to plant. As of Sunday, 93 percent of the soybean crop had emerged from the ground, compared with the 97 percent five-year average. Also, 21 percent of the soybean crop is in the bloom stage, equal to the five-year average.
Nationwide, 12 percent of the corn was silking, behind last year's 14 percent and the average of 18 percent.
The winter wheat harvest advanced to 55 percent. Nationwide, spring wheat slipped to 70 percent good to excellent from the previous week's 72 percent.
Sorghum was 24 percent headed up from 23 percent a year ago but behind the 23 percent average. It slipped one point to 67 percent good to excellent.
Last week, the USDA said planted and intended acreage of corn is now estimated at 88.897 million acres, 302,000 less than March intentions and 395,000 less than the average trade guess.
The forecast of acreage harvested for grain is at 81.101 million acres, about 600,000 acres less than forecast in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and 2.035 million less than harvested last year. Planted and intended acreage of soybeans is estimated at 85.139 million acres, 504,000 larger than March intentions and 1.438 million more than planted last year.

US corn, soybean forecasts expected to increase

Forecasts for the U.S. corn and soybean markets are expected to be increased beyond the already large production outlooks in the October 10 Crop Production report, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
“Larger crop expectations stem from expectations for higher yield forecasts, with some disagreement about the prospects for changes in acreage estimates. The implication of large crops for the magnitude of year-ending stocks obviously depends on the consumption response,” Good said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected 2014-15 marketing year exports for corn at 1.75 billion bushels, 175 million less than last year. The decline reflects an expected decline in world trade, as opposed to a loss of market share.
As of September 11, 513.3 million bushels of U.S. corn had been sold for export. That is 7 million bushels less than a year earlier. Sales to China are down by 122 million bushels, but larger to Japan and several other countries including Colombia.
“Export inspections during the first three-and-a-half weeks of the marketing year were about twice as large as in the same period last year. The variation in the seasonal pattern of both export sales and shipments from year to year, however, means that early-season activity is not always a good indicator of marketing-year export demand. Still, the current pace of export activity is encouraging,” Good said.
Marketing year exports of U.S. soybeans are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, 55 million bushels more than last year. As of September 11, 935.7 million bushels of U.S. soybeans had been sold for export, 95 million more than a year ago.
Good says current indicators of corn and soybean consumption do not point to 2014-15 marketing year consumption that would deviate much from USDA projections.

How ethanol, DDGS may affect the 2014 US corn crop

Ethanol is no longer in a growth phase. Sure, exports offer strong potential for profitability going forward, but we don’t see new plants being built. We also believe there are too many politics involved for greater use of corn to become realistic, or at least that would matter for the 2014 crop. And, we can’t determine if the ethanol producers even want E15 as it might trigger new plants, increased production and reduced market share for existing plants.
Developments in the DDGS market
In the meantime, there is a development worth watching that is slightly more negative than positive for corn prices. As the ethanol industry starts to make ethanol from this corn crop, dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) supplies might weigh on the corn market because the trade dilemma with China was never resolved last summer.
In the U.S., in 2013 and 2014 there has been less DDGS consumed by all livestock after the drought of 2012 and $8 corn, because corn is trending lower and is cheaper. We anticipate this trend to continue in 2015 as the high-quality crop being harvested should make better feed than the inclusion of DDGS. Some livestock operations that are regionally close to an ethanol plant and therefore have transportation advantages will still use DDGS.
We expect domestic livestock to shift to a more traditional feed ration: More corn, soybean meal and less DDGS. If we are correct, then a greater need for DDGS to be exported opens up, and history shows us that China can account for 50 percent of DDGS exports.
DDGS exports are a delicate matter when applying the overall balance of fundamental factors applied to the price of corn. In other words, farmers and ethanol producers really need this issue to be resolved so we can ship/export DDGS to China. DDGS is not exactly a perishable commodity, but it is a commodity that requires constant movement of product. The worst case scenario would be a backup of DDGS with nowhere to go. Mexico will most likely have the opportunity to step up its use of this feed commodity, but for a price-neutral balance to occur, we need China to remain a stable and consistent DDGS buyer.
Backing up a supply of any product or commodity is never a good thing, and the readers of nearly all of the WATT publications have likely experienced that in their careers.

Mycotoxin threat found in 2013 North American corn harvest

All of the corn and corn silage samples submitted during the 2013 harvest tested positive for multiple mycotoxins, according to a recent harvest analysis conducted by global animal health and nutrition company Alltech.
The Alltech Harvest Analysis North America (HANA) survey tested 101 samples from across the U.S. and Canada and demonstrated the need for producers to implement a mycotoxin management program to monitor the effects of toxins on all species throughout 2014. Despite more rainfall across the Corn Belt and yields pushing record production, farmers must consider quality rather than quantity, according to Alltech. Quality not only includes nutritive value but also the presence and levels of mycotoxins in the 2013 crop.
The presence of mycotoxins follows what is being observed in that a greater percentage of feeds and feedstuffs are contaminated with multiple mycotoxins. The breakdowns for corn silage and corn are almost identical in that fumonisin is the most prominent mycotoxin and is followed by fusaric acid and type B trichothecenes.
Type B trichothecenes are present at low-risk levels in the average sample and may be considered at safe levels by many producers. However, the second most prevalent mycotoxin is fusaric acid, and fusaric acid will act synergistically with DON to magnify the effects of DON. "What appears to be a relatively safe, low-risk level of Type B trichothecenes may be elevated to a moderate risk by fusaric acid," said Dr. Max Hawkins, nutritionist with Alltech's mycotoxin management team. "This effect will be manifested as lower dry matter intake, decreased rate of gain, gut irritation and lowered immune response."
Many times it is not an acute case that can be readily identified, but a chronic situation associated with the ingestion of a low level of mycotoxins over an extended period of time. This results in a wide array of subclinical symptoms that slowly reduce performance, eat away at the producer's bottom line and compromise herd health. "Producers need to implement a mycotoxin control program now to reduce the threat to their herds," said Hawkins. "This is the time to be proactive."

US corn and soybean acreages not final, says economist

Conflicting reports of U.S. planted corn and soybean acreage, even as the current harvest is underway, have left room for the fluctuation of the final number, according to University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good.
"For corn, acreage that had been reported to FSA (the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Farm Service Agency) as planted totaled 91.428 million, 2.657 million more than reported the previous month," said Good. "Based on survey data, the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has estimated planted acreage at 97.379 million acres. Acreage reported to FSA is expected to be less than the NASS estimate because not all producers are enrolled in programs that require reporting of planted acreage to the FSA.
"Planted acreage reported to FSA as of the September report accounted for 93.9 percent of the total estimated by NASS and the difference was 5.951 million acres," said Good. "Over the previous six years, the final total corn acreage reported to FSA averaged 96.9 percent of the final NASS estimate, in a range of 96.4 to 97.5 percent. The difference between the FSA and NASS acreage estimates averaged 2.785 million acres, in a range of 2.381 in 2007 to 3.295 million in 2011.
The difference between the corn acreage reported to FSA and acreage estimated by NASS in 2013 may be smaller when final estimates are available, according to Good. "If the final difference is equal to the largest difference of the past six years (2011), the gap will narrow by 2.5 to 2.6 million acres," he said. "Planted acreage of corn reported to FSA increased from September to the final estimate by only 228,000 acres in 2011 and 213,000 in 2012. The increase may be larger this year due to the lateness of planting and the extension of the FSA deadline for reporting planted acreage. It would be a surprise if the increase totaled 2.5 to 2.6 million acres, leading to the expectation that the NASS estimate of planted acreage may be reduced in future Crop Production reports."
Good said that for soybeans, acreage that had been reported to FSA as planted totaled 74.659 million, 2.598 million more than reported in August. Based on survey data, NASS has estimated planted acreage at 77.178 million acres. Planted acreage reported to FSA as of the September report accounted for 96.7 percent of the total estimated by NASS and the difference was 2.519 million acres.
Over the previous six years, the final total soybean acreage reported to FSA averaged 98.2 percent of the final NASS estimate of planted acreage, in a range of 97.1 to 98.8 percent. The difference between the FSA and NASS acreage estimates averaged 1.304 million acres, in a range of 0.917 million in 2008 to 1.884 million in 2007. "History suggests that the current gap between FSA and NASS acreage numbers will narrow by about one million acres," said Good.
Planted acreage of soybeans reported to FSA increased from September to the final estimate by only 190,000 acres in 2011 and 161,000 in 2012, suggesting that the NASS estimate in 2013 could be reduced by as much as 800,000 acres, according to Good. "That is not a large decline and is well within the experience of the past 10 years," he said. "With an average yield of 41.2 bushels, an 800,000-acre reduction in the estimate of harvested acreage would reduce the soybean production estimate by 33 million bushels and result in year-ending stocks of about 120 million bushels, based on current consumption forecasts."

Corn study shows impact of Mississippi River closure due to drought

Due to the drought-induced low water levels on the Mississippi River in 2012 and early into 2013, farmers experienced on average $0.45 lower cash corn prices, according to a study funded by the Illinois Corn Marketing Board, Iowa Farm Bureau and Iowa, Indiana and Missouri corn check-off programs.
The purpose of the study, conducted by Informa Economics, was to document an actual event simulating a prolonged river interruption. Instead of an economic model, the real-world event of low water on the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill., was examined. The study revealed that, as a consequence the unavailability of river shipping, diversion to rail was at a 45 cent-per-bushel premium to barge rates. The 45 cent-per-bushel premium to barge rates encouraged the storage of grain until the river market stabilized, or its use elsewhere in the marketing chain.
The study results were presented during a public hearing held by the Mississippi River Commission on August 16 in Alton, Ill. 

Corn, soybeans rally as hot weather threatens US crop yields

Corn rose the most in 14 months and soybean futures jumped the most since 2011 as hot, dry Midwest weather threatens U.S. crop yields, according to reports.
Temperatures are expected to average as much as 14 degrees F above normal through the first week of September, with little rain in the Midwest. July and August will be the driest since 1936 in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, according to T-Storm Weather LLC. Corn production is predicted to be 2.2 percent below the government August 12 forecast, while the soybean harvest will be 3 percent below forecast.
Corn futures for December delivery rose 6.5 percent to close at $5.005 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade on August 26, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since June 25, 2012. Earlier, the price touched $5.0825, the highest since July 16. Soybean futures for delivery in November jumped 4.6 percent to $13.895 a bushel on the CBOT on August 26, the biggest advance for a most-active contract since October 11, 2011. Earlier, the oilseed rose by the 70-cent exchange limit to $13.98. Prices rose 5.5 percent the week of August 19, the third straight increase.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has cut its corn-crop forecast three times in as many months, predicting production of 13.763 billion bushels. While that would be a record, it is down from 14.14 billion bushels expected in May. On August 23, Iowa-based Pro Farmer predicted the crop would be 13.46 billion bushels. Soybean output may fall below the government's estimate of 3.255 billion bushels, reaching 3.158 billion bushels, after planting delays and unusually cool, dry weather stunted growth, according to Pro Farmer.

US corn, soybean production estimates continue fluctuations

The U.S. corn and soybean markets continue to reflect uncertainty about the potential size of the country's 2013 corn and soybean crops, according to reports. Since mid-June, December 2013 corn futures have traded in an 80 cents range, and November 2013 soybean futures have traded in a $1.00 range as production expectations shifted up and down. Uncertainty about both acreage and yield prospects has contributed to the trading range, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
"The [U.S. Department of Agriculture]'s June Acreage Report showed that producers planted, or intended to plant, slightly more acres of both corn and soybeans than indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report," said Good. "The report also showed that the difference between planted acreage and expected harvested acreage of corn for grain was larger than average at 8.244 million acres. On the other hand, the expected difference between planted and harvested acreage of soybeans was smaller than average at 810,000 acres."
Given the lateness of the 2013 planting season, reported prevented planted acreage is likely to be large, said Good. In addition, some planted acreage has been lost to flooding. As a result, actual planted and harvested acreage of both corn and soybeans are likely to be less than the June estimates. The magnitude of the difference, however, may remain uncertain until October.
Good said that the same factors that have created uncertainty about planted and harvested acreage of corn and soybeans have also contributed to early-season yield uncertainty. "Judging from current crop condition ratings, yield prospects at this stage of the growing season are quite good," he said. "However, overall yield prospects will be influenced less by developments to date and more by weather conditions over the next two months as the crops go through the reproductive and filling stages.
"Recent weather and near-term weather prospects are a bit of a mixed bag with almost ideal moisture conditions in many areas, but too much rainfall in some areas, dryness developing in some western areas, and generally above-average temperatures this week," said Good. "As usual, there are some differences of opinion about longer-term weather forecasts. Prospects for moderating temperatures and thunderstorm activity, however, bode well for yield prospects. The markets will continue to monitor crop condition ratings for indications of yield potential."
According to Good, even with harvested acreage less than currently estimated, prospects for corn and soybean yields near trend value in 2013 point to large crops and the likely buildup in stocks during the 2013-2014 marketing year. "Due to the extreme lateness of soybean planting in some western and northern growing areas, soybean yields may be at more risk than corn yields," he said. "Soybean yield uncertainty could persist later in the season than is normally the case, with new-crop soybean futures reflecting more production risk than new-crop corn futures."

US corn futures fluctuate on production uncertainties

December 2013 corn futures have traded from a low of $5.12 to a high of $5.735 since mid-May as production uncertainty continues due to late planting in several key areas, according to University of Illinois Agriculture Economist Darrel Good.
Nationally, an estimated 46 percent of the crop was planted as of May 15, compared to an average of 72 percent in the previous 34 years. The largest percentage of the acreage remained unplanted as of May 15 since 1995, and an estimated 9 percent of the acreage was still to be planted as of June 2.
"Expectations for the estimates of planted and harvested acreage of corn appear to be in a wide range for at least two reasons," said Good. "First, some analysts reportedly think that the USDA's March survey of prospective corn plantings resulted in an under-estimate of farmers' actual planting intentions. Under normal planting conditions, some would have expected to see a larger estimate in the June report.
"The second and more important reason for the wide range of expectations stems from late planting," said Good. "Estimates of the number of acres that were intended for corn that have been or will be switched to another crop, or not planted at all, vary considerably. The June 28 report will shed some light on that issue, but the larger-than-normal amount of unplanted acreage during the survey period suggests the report will still reflect intentions in some cases."
The price implications of unfolding production prospects will need to be evaluated in terms of the expected size of the market for U.S. corn during the 2013-2014 marketing year. In the May 10 WASDE report, the USDA projected the size of the market at 12.92 billion bushels under conditions of ample supplies and moderate prices. That projection is 1.785 billion bushels larger than expected consumption during the current marketing year characterized by small supplies and high prices.
Large increases in consumption are expected in each major category of use - ethanol, exports, and feed and residual use. The largest percentage increase (73 percent) is expected for exports while the largest absolute increase (925 million bushels) is expected for feed and residual use. At 5.35 billion bushels, the projection of feed and residual use is the largest since 2007-2008. The large projection reflects an expected increase in livestock feeding rates, not an increase in the number of grain consuming animal units. The expected higher feeding rate reflects a combination of lower feed prices and larger residual use associated with a very large crop. The projection appears generous and the forecast of residual use would likely decline with a smaller crop forecast, even if prices are at the projected level
According to Good, a large number of acreage, yield, consumption and price scenarios are still possible at this time. "What's important is that there is room for a much smaller crop than the early prospects of 14 billion bushels before rationing would be required during the upcoming marketing year," said Good. "A crop of 13 billion bushels would be sufficient to meet expected needs at current new-crop price levels. If harvested acreage is near 85.5 million acres (4 million below the early forecast), as an example, a crop of that size would require an average yield of 152 bushels, about 10 bushels below trend value."

US corn acreage may drop on wet weather

Wet weather in the U.S. Midwest through the beginning of June may lead to a decrease in corn acreage and cause a possible switch to soybeans, according to Joel Widenor, an agricultural meteorologist with Commodity Weather Group. Reductions are most likely in northeastern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, central North Dakota and western Wisconsin.
In other parts of the Midwest, warmer weather with highs in the 80s Fahrenheit to lower 90s F would help dry soils between showers and speed corn and soybean emergence, said Widenor. "The southeastern Midwest will see the least showers over the next two weeks and soil moisture deficits will begin to show up, but it is still too early to pose a significant problem," he said.
 In its weekly crop progress report on May 20, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said corn planting was 71 percent complete, up from 28 percent the previous week but still behind the 79 percent five-year average seeding pace. The USDA has projected U.S. 2013 corn plantings at 97.3 million acres, the largest land area devoted to its production since the 1930s. Soybean planting progress rose to 24 percent from 6 percent a week earlier, according to the USDA.

Co-op offers tips to best start corn crop

One of the coolest springs on records has delayed most producers across the Midwest from getting in the field. Typically, 42 percent of the corn in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois is planted by the first week in May. This year, only 5 percent of the planting had occurred by May 3.
Despite the delay in planting, Joe Speich, an agronomist for Landmark Services Cooperatives, a member-owned cooperative, says growers can still position themselves for a successful growing season.
"There's still time to get the crop in the ground," he says. "A successful start impacts the entire growing season, so it's best to focus on the essentials rather than rushing planting."
Essential variables of planting include: soil temperatures and conditions, ambient temperatures and rainfall. These conditions should be monitored and forecasted as the first 48 hours after planting are the most critical for corn seedling growth.
Successful corn planting is a combination of these conditions and timing. Planting too early in cool or wet conditions can cause seedling damage; however, if planting occurs after May 20 in the Midwest, it is estimated that 1 to 2 bushels per acre per day will be lost due to a shortened growing season.
"No matter the timing, we first need to get the stands started and healthy," Speich says. "We need to make sure we plant the crop right the first time, because we can't fix it after it's gone in the ground."
Speich offers these suggestions for providing the best start to the corn crop:
Wait until soil temperature reaches 50F.
Planting corn in soil that is too cold can impact early seedling development. Speich says the optimal soil for corn planting is 50 F because the warmth helps foster seedling growth.
Plant corn when average daily high temperatures reach 60 to 70F and overnight temperatures are in the mid-50F temperature range for an extended period of time.
With the delayed spring in the Midwest, temperatures have not reached this level for an extended period of time, meaning that soil temperatures have not reached the needed temperature. Watch the forecast for an extended period of warm temperatures before planting. Cold weather following planting can cause damage to seedlings by cooling the soil.
Do not plant before expected rainfall.
Cold water can damage seedlings and reduce yields from the start. The most critical period of the growing season is the 48 hours following planting.
"If more than one inch of cold rain happens after planting, we can predict about a 20 percent stand loss just from the cold weather of the rain," Speich says. "Once the cold water gets into the seedling, it causes cracking and infections of the cells. Look for a constant, warm 60 to 70 degree period with no major rain in the forecast; that's a safe time to be planting corn."
Be observant of soil conditions.
Moisture levels in the soil impact seedling growth. Plant corn in saturated soil can be problematic.
"If soil is muddy, you can start seeing sidewall compaction caused by the corn planter," Speich says. "This can cause a delay in root development in corn. To help ensure a better yield, be conscious on how wet the fields are and do not try to rush them. Letting the field dry out for an additional day will pay dividends in the fall."
As a general rule, if the soil sticks to the depth-gauge wheel on the corn planter, the soil is too wet for corn planting.
Work with an agronomist to create a planting plan.
Fertilizers, growth regulators, planter box treatments and other additives can help promote early corn stand growth. Agronomists can determine a plan that works best for the field and the goals of the operation.

Production of corn, soybeans projected to increase in 2014

Corn and soybean production both in the United States and worldwide are expected to increase in 2014, as the United States Department of Agriculture has offered its first look into the year ahead.
The projections, released in the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, show a bright spot for livestock and poultry producers, who rely on the grain supply for feed. The report was issued on May 10.
While the forecasts may bode well  for animal agriculture, economists are still cautious.
"All of this is still in the hands of Mother Nature. She will dictate the weather to allow for the amount of corn and soybeans that will be planted and the growing season weather," said Todd Davis, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. "The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is a good starting point for the projections, but there is a long way to go before the uncertainty of 2013 production and stocks become resolved."
Corn projections
Corn production for the 2103-2014 season is forecast to increase to 965.94 million metric tons, a steady improvement from the 857.12 million for this season and the 882.96 million from a year ago.
U.S. production for 2014 is forecast at 359.17 million metric tons, substantially moving up from the 273.83 million for this year and the 313.95 recorded last year.
Total foreign production is forecast for next year at 606.77 million metric tons, compared to the 583.29 million forecast for this year and 569.01 million recorded last year. Production in Argentina and South Africa is expected to increase for the upcoming year, but decrease slightly in Brazil. Mexican production is projected to improve each year.
U.S. ending stocks for 2014 are expected to be at 50.91 million metric tons, while the worldwide estimates are at 154.63 million. That indicates a huge gain from the estimated ending stocks number forecast for 2013 at 19.29 million metric tons in the U.S. and 125.43 million worldwide. The figures recorded at the end of last season were 132.22 million worldwide and 25.12 in the U.S.
Soybean projections
The projections for the 2013-14 season call for worldwide soybean production of 285.5 million metric tons produced, an significant improvement over the 269.11 million metric tons forecast for this year and the 239.46 million metric tons produced last year.
United States production is forecast at 92.26 million metric tons for the upcoming year, making more than a 10 million metric ton increase from this season's projections t 82.06 million metric tons. This season's projections slide back from last year's total of 84.19 million metric tons.
Production from other countries shows a gain each year. Next year's crop has been forecast at 193.24 million metric tons, which is up from 187.05 million for this year and the 155.27 produced last year. Argentina and Brazil made the biggest gains this year in foreign markets, with production in Argentina jumping from 40.10 million metric tons last year to 51 million this year. Next year's totals from Argentina are forecast at 54.50 million metric tons. Brazilian production is forecast to improve from last year's total of 66.5 million metric tons to 83.5 million this year and 85 million next year.
The predicted increase is a result of both higher expected acres planted and improved yields.
Ending stocks will go up next year both in the U.S. and worldwide, with 74.96 million metric tons globally and 7.22 million metric tons in the U.S. The estimates for the end of this year are forecast at 62.46 million worldwide and 3.39 million in the U.S., compared to the respective totals of 54.71 million and 4.61 million for the end of last year.

US corn planting ties slowest on record due to weather

U.S. corn planting has tied the slowest pace on record due to rain in the Midwest keeping farmers out of the fields, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data on April 28.
Planting is 5 percent complete, just 1 percent ahead of where farmers were on April 22 and the slowest pace since 1984. Analysts had predicted corn planting to be at 9 percent by the end of April. In Iowa, the top corn-producing state, planting is at 2 percent, while Illinois and Indiana are both at just 1 percent, according to reports. "Wet fields are the topic for most farmers across the state," said the Illinois field office of the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. "The heavy rains from the week before combined with the cooler-than-normal temperatures have many fields still too wet. There has been no significant planting done yet."
The five-year U.S. average for the end of April is 31 percent, while in 2012 farmers had finished 49 percent of their corn planting. "Our main concern is not that we didn't get most of our crop planted by the end of April, it's just we're not quite sure when we're going to start," said Emerson Nafziger, agronomist at the University of Illinois. Farmers usually aim to have their crop planted by mid-May to ensure that the corn has enough time to mature so it can withstand the heat of the Midwest summer.

Poor corn crop would close meat, poultry plants, economist says

If this year's corn yields drop much below the base of 145 bushels per acre, it will force some meat and poultry plants that rely on that grain for feed to close, said Dr. Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC.
Elam spoke on this topic during the March 26 Farm Journal/WATT Grain and Meat Outlook Webinar, which can be viewed on demand at http://www.wattagnet.com/157129.html.
He said that if the base forecast were to hold true, the average U.S. price for corn would be around $7 per bushel. Under that scenario, there would be some room for expansion of protein consumption, and the profitability of meat and poultry production would improve.
However, if yields dropped as low as 130, Elam said, the picture would be grim.
"That would still be more than we produced last year, but because or carryover supplies are at pipeline minimum levels, it would mean lower feed supply and much higher feed costs. … If we get much below 140 bushels an acre, we might see $8 or $8.50 corn, not on the average for the year, but certainly a big piece of it," Elam said. "It would shut down some more protein and ethanol companies."
The meat and poultry industries have already suffered enough, Elam said, as nine poultry companies have gone bankrupt since 2008, and two others were forced to sell to avoid bankruptcy. Two more meat plants shut down in March, he added.
However, if yields exceed the forecast and reach 155 bushels, Elam said there would a significant rebound in feed use and exports. It would enable protein production to expand, and there would be significantly more profitability for feeders.
Corn yields should improve from 2013, but by how much?
Any scenario is possible for corn yields, said Chip Flory, ProFarmer editor, who also spoke at the webinar hosted by WATTAgNet and Farm Journal.
After discussing the apparent improvement of drought conditions in corn-growing regions, Flory was optimistic the corn crop will improve.
"It's better than it was last fall, but better than last fall doesn't mean it's good," Flory said.
According to ProFarmer estimates, last year's average yield was 123.4 bushels, and a yield of 140 for 2013 would be considered poor. An average yield would be 150, and an excellent yield would be 160.
Projected planted acreage is at 98 million acreas, up .8 million over last year, according to Flory's figures.
Some of the increased acreage may not yield as high, Elam indicated, as some of the new ground will be on lower productivity soils.
Flory also spoke cautiously that the March 9 rains in the Corn Belt may not have eased the drought conditions as much as some thought.
"They were very generous rains, there's no question about that. But immediately following those rains the farm ponds were overflowing and the rivers and creeks were running full," said Flory. "It really didn't soak a lot of that in."
Wide range projected for corn prices
With the quality of the corn crop in question, so is the price this fall. When asked to predict the price of corn this fall, Elam gave a broad range, saying it will largely depend on the weather, the moisture levels, and whether farmers can get the crop planted at the optimum time.
"With these carryover supplies, it's a loaded gun," said Elam. "Four-dollar corn and $8 corn are equally probable. The gun is out there, it's loaded, and it's called the western Corn Belt drought."
Flory agreed with Elam's assessment. However, he included that with an average yield of 160, the price could be expected to drop as low as $5.50 a bushel. If it only yielded 140, it would be around $7.25.
Elam cautioned that because of minimal grain inventories, grain prices will be extremely volatile over the summer.

US corn, soy planting estimates up

U.S. corn and soybean planting estimates are up from previous forecasts, according to an Allendale Inc. survey, and wheat plantings will increase for the third consecutive year.
The corn forecast is now at 96.956 million acres, down from 2012’s 97.155 million acres and above the 96.5 million that the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on February 22. Soybean plantings will rise to 78.324 million acres from 77.198 million in 2012, according to Allendale’s survey. The USDA February estimate said that 77.5 million acres would be sown in 2013.
The combined area planted with all wheat varieties is expected to rise to 56.261 million acres from 55.736 million in 2012. In February, the USDA said farmers would sow 56 million acres.

US corn farmers to rotate crops in wake of drought

Some U.S. farmers are expected to return to rotating their crops after years of solid corn growing in the wake of the 2012 drought, wanting to avoid another year of risk as dry conditions are forecast to continue, according to analysts.
A shift in the primary grain states, such as Iowa and Illinois, could contribute to the increase in 2013 grain prices, which are already up due to stockpiles projected to hit historic 17-year lows by the end of the summer. Iowa and Illinois could each switch up to one million acres previously devoted to corn production over to other crops in 2013, according to Rabobank. That could mean a loss of up to 320 million bushels of corn from the 2013 harvest, based on the states' five-year average yields. Farmers planted 14.2 million acres of corn in Iowa and 12.8 million acres in Illinois in 2012.
Corn requires more moisture than other crops such as soybeans, and the soil needs to be reinvigorated after years of corn-on-corn production. Soybeans naturally add the key fertilizer nitrogen to the land. "Farmers are going to do their best to not do corn-on-corn any more than they have to," said Rich Guebert, vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau.
Even so, reports are still predicting a record acreage of corn planting in 2013, due largely to high corn prices. Rabobank is estimating total plantings will rise 0.5 percent to 97.6 million acres, which would be the most since 101.95 million acres were planted in 1936 before the advent of soybeans.