Showing posts with label US corn production. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US corn production. Show all posts

Monday, November 2, 2015

US corn harvest moves ahead, new states report mycotoxins

Mostly warm and dry weather helped the U.S. corn harvest along in the past week, as the presence of mycotoxins was confirmed in new states, according to Neogen’s Monday Mycotoxin report from October 26.
Ninety-eight percent of corn has reached maturity. That is two points ahead of the five-year average. Fifty-nine percent of corn has been harvested. That is five points ahead of the five-year average.
States with double-digit percentages of corn in poor to very poor condition include Illinois (15 percent), Indiana (23 percent), North Carolina (28 percent), Ohio (19 percent) and Missouri (17 percent).

Mycotoxins reported

New to the list of states with confirmed reports of aflatoxin in corn is Tennessee, with more than 20 parts per billion (ppb). That is in addition to the previously reported list:
  • Georgia
  • Texas
  • North Carolina
  • South Carolina
  • Virginia
  • Oklahoma
  • Kansas
New to the list of confirmed deoxynivalenol (DON) in corn is Wisconsin, with more than 1 part per million (ppm). That is in addition to the previously reported list:
  • Missouri
  • Illinois
  • Iowa
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Latest crop progress report by the numbers

Friday, April 17, 2015

Study finds corn genes for higher yields, stronger crops

  • freeimages.com/shanii
    A new study of corn has identified gene variations for yield increases, drought tolerance and aflatoxin resistance.
    From WATTAgNet:
    A new study of corn has identified gene variations for yield increases, drought tolerance and aflatoxin resistance.
    The study, "Genome Wide Association Study for Drought, Aflatoxin Resistance, and Important Agronomic Traits of Maize Hybrids in the Sub-Tropics," was conducted by Texas A&M’s AgriLife Research and published in PLOS ONE, an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication.
    The study included the growing years of 2011, a drought year, and 2012, and was conducted on dryland and irrigated corn in College Station, Texas, and in Mississippi, all with similar results, said Dr. Seth Murray, an AgriLife Research corn breeder in the soil and crop science department of Texas A&M University at College Station.
    Murray said that all corn seed available to growers in Texas comes from commercial breeding conducted in the Midwest. As a result, there's been no significant increase in corn yields in Texas for many years.
    Murray designed this study to see if there was a genetic reason, possibly the use of Midwest-temperate rather than sub-tropical genetics, limiting production.
    "The idea is if it is bred in the best conditions in the Midwest, it should survive in the not-so-good conditions we see here in Texas," he said. "So we believe the private breeders for the commercial industry are trying to do the best for most producers, just not our producers. There has not been an effort to develop corn that addresses the unique needs of southern locations, especially not in the way they have for the Midwest."

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Record corn harvest underway as farmers brace for lower prices

  • Corn Belt
    From WATTAgNet:
    As farmers in the Corn Belt gear up for record harvest thanks to near-perfect weather, they brace for a financial hit as a result of falling prices over recent months.
    “The overall picture from the USDA report is that the harvest is progressing very well and if that continues, we are only going to see lower prices,” said Phin Ziebell, Agribusiness Economist at National Australia Bank.
    Recent U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates show the corn harvest was about 24 percent complete and 74 percent of the crop was in good to excellent condition.
    The week of October 13, corn prices fell from a five-week high. Corn for December delivery fell 1 percent to $3.535 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
    Agriculture economists already are estimating how many acres of corn are needed in 2015. A University of Illinois expert says “one way to approach the question of how many corn acres are needed in 2015 is to determine the combination of production, consumption, and year-ending stocks that would result in a 2015-16 marketing year average farm price closer to the cost of production, estimated to be in the low $4-range (assuming trend yields) in much of the Corn Belt.” 

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

China rejection of US corn cost companies $427 million

    The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) says China has rejected nearly 1.45 million tons of U.S. corn shipments since 2013,costing grains companies $427 million in lost sales and rerouted shipments.
    China began rejecting genetically modified corn in November 2013 after detecting Syngenta's unapproved MIR162 strain in incoming shipments.
    The NGFA says exports of corn and related products from the U.S. to China since January are down 85 percent from the same period one year ago. China is the third largest buyer of U.S. corn.
    Fifteen genetically modified corn varieties are approved for import to China. Syngenta’s MIR162 has been awaiting approval since March 2010, but has been mixed in with other varieties since China started importing U.S. corn in 2011. Rejections of the strand have affected corn and soybean prices on the global market, and resulted in losses of hundreds of millions of dollars for farmers.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

US corn market focusing on January 2014 estimate, ethanol production

    The recent corn market commentary has been dominated by two themes, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good. One is that the U.S. Department of Agriculture's production estimate, to be released in January 2014, will be larger than the November forecast. The second is that corn consumption for ethanol production will be negatively impacted if the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's preliminary rule making for the Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) for 2014 is actually implemented. Good said that both of these expectations are questionable.
    Production estimates"Any change in the January corn production estimate from the November forecast would be the result of a change in either, or both, the estimate of acreage harvested for grain or the U.S. average yield," said Good. "The November National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) planted acreage estimate was fully consistent with the USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) report of planted acreage. Over the previous 10 years, the January U.S. average yield estimate was above the November yield forecast five times and below the forecast five times. Even in the five years when the November yield forecast exceeded the September forecast, as it did this year, the January estimate was below the November forecast twice. Considering the previous 30 years, the January yield estimate was above the November forecast 16 times and unchanged or lower 14 times," he said.
    Good said that historically, the January corn production forecast was more heavily influenced by changes in acreage estimates than is currently the case because administrative data (primarily FSA-certified acreage data) were not fully incorporated in the NASS estimates until then. More recently, that data have been incorporated in the October production forecast (November in 2013). In the six years since 2003, in which the January production estimate exceeded the November forecast, the difference exceeded 80 million bushels of corn only in 2009 (230 million bushels). In the four years when the January production forecast was smaller than the November forecast, the difference ranged from 93 million to 210 million bushels.
    Ethanol productionIn preliminary rule making for 2014 announced on November 15, the EPA proposed to effectively reduce the mandate for renewable biofuels (primarily corn-based ethanol) in 2014 from the statutory requirement of 14.4 billion gallons to 13 billion gallons.
    "Some have interpreted this to mean that, if implemented, the rules would result in less corn consumption for ethanol production during the current marketing year than would have otherwise occurred," said Good. "That may or may not be the case. Without a change in the rules, blending of ethanol in the domestic motor fuel supply during the 2013-2014 corn-marketing year would still have been limited by the 10 percent blend wall and consumption of relatively small quantities of higher blends. Domestic consumption would have been well short of 14.4 billion gallons and maybe less than 13.3 billion gallons.
    "The proposed change in the RFS mandate does not necessarily substantially alter prospects for domestic ethanol consumption during the current corn-marketing year," said Good. "However, as pointed out two weeks ago, domestic ethanol consumption and production will be influenced by factors beyond the mandate. In particular, consumption will be influenced by the extent to which mandates are met with physical blending versus the use of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) stocks."
    Ethanol production will also be influenced by changes in stocks of ethanol and by the magnitude and direction of net-ethanol trade, said Good. "With stocks at a four-year low, further reductions may be small," he said. "U.S. ethanol is also expected to experience a positive trade balance in the year ahead. Taken together, these factors suggest that prospects for corn consumption for ethanol production are still near the 4.9 billion bushels projected by the USDA."
    Corn market functioning as needed"Without a meaningful increase in the U.S. production estimate in January, corn prices appear low enough to encourage the increase in consumption made possible by the large 2013 crop," said Good. "U.S. corn is competitive in the world market, domestic livestock production has been returned to profitability, and ethanol production margins are large. As a result, export and export sales have accelerated, domestic livestock production is expanding, and ethanol production has rebounded. The corn market appears to be functioning as needed, with one exception: The large carry in the futures market price structure encourages carrying unneeded inventory into the next marketing year and also encourages producers to maintain large corn acreage in 2014."

Monday, September 23, 2013

US corn, soybean production uncertainty expected to continue

    U.S. corn and soybean prices are likely to continue to be unsettled as harvest reports become more numerous and the market forms expectations about the October production forecasts, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
    "In each of the previous three years, when the U.S. average corn yield was below trend value, the October production forecast was below the September forecast," said Good. "The difference ranged from 21 million bushels last year to 496 million bushels in 2010. Over the past 30 years, however, the October forecast was above the September forecast in 18 years and below the September forecast in 12 years.
    "This year, there continues to be a range of expectations about both the October forecast and the final estimate of the U.S. average corn yield," he said. "Yield uncertainty is increased by the generally dry end to the growing season in many areas and by the late maturity of the crop where planting was delayed."
     According to Good, current corn production uncertainty also comes from uncertainty about the magnitude of the area to be harvested for grain.The U.S. Department of Agriculture's June Agricultural Survey revealed more corn acreage planted and to be harvested for grain than expected by the market. On August 15, the USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) released a prevented acres report that indicated 3.4 million acres of corn were prevented from being planted in 2013 due to adverse weather conditions. That report fueled expectations that the USDA's National Agricultural Service (NASS) would eventually reduce the estimates of planted acreage and acreage harvested for grain, according to Good.
    "Typically, FSA-certified acreage data is reflected in the October Crop Production report," he said. "FSA is scheduled to release updated estimates of planted acreage on September 17. That report will influence expectations for the acreage estimates in the October Crop Production report. Without a change in the yield forecast, prospects for 2013-2014 marketing-year ending stocks below 1.5 billion bushels would require NASS to lower the harvested acreage estimate by more than 2 million acres. Such a large reduction seems unlikely."
    Uncertainty about the NASS October forecast and the final estimate of the U.S. average soybean yield also reflects late-season heat and dryness in a large portion of the production area and late maturity in some areas. Good said that some of the impact of adverse weather was likely reflected in the September yield forecast that was 1.4 bushels below the August forecast. "Most do not expect the October forecast to be above the September forecast, but there is little agreement on the possible magnitude of a smaller forecast," said Good.
    At this juncture, said Good, there is a high probability that the 2013 U.S. corn crop will be large enough to result in a meaningful increase in stocks by the end of the current marketing year. "Prospects of ample supplies point to an average marketing year farm price in the mid-$4 range," he said. "Cash prices would be expected to follow a typical large-crop pattern of establishing lows at harvest time followed by modest increases that would about cover the cost of storage."
    Good said that soybean prices are expected to remain high relative to corn prices with a marketing-year average farm price in the high-$12 range. "The price pattern for soybeans may follow more of a short-crop pattern, however, particularly if the production forecast declines in October," he said. "Such a pattern would point to the highest prices at harvest and declining prices as consumption adjusts and the South American crop advances."

Monday, September 2, 2013

Crop tour results in lowered forecasts for corn and soybean yields

    Chip Flory, editor, Pro Farmer, and crop analyst, presented the results of Pro Farmer's 21st annual crop tour during the Pro Farmer/WATT Grain & Meat Outlook webinar. He said that as a result of late planting caused by wet spring weather in the Corn Belt, much of the corn and the soybean crops are at immature stages for late August and will require several weeks of good growing conditions to reach their respective yield potentials. 
    Flory said that the current hot dry conditions in the Midwest are not going to help the crops and that an early frost would also damage the crops. Normally, the corn and soybean crops would be farther along in their development by late August and would not be impacted as significantly by weather conditions in September and early October. Flory said that the next six to seven weeks will be very important for the corn and the soybean crops, and that this increases the margin for error in estimating the average yields for the country.
    For the 2013-14 crop year in the U.S., Pro Farmer projects that the planted acres for corn will be 95.4 million acres, or 2 million less than what the USDA WASDE forecast on August 12. The harvested acres are projected to be 87.3 million acres by Pro Farmer, 1.8 million acres less than the USDA forecast. Pro Farmer forecast that the national corn yield will be 154.1 bushels per acre, or 0.3 bushels per acre less than the USDA forecast. This nets a total corn harvest forecast of 13.46 billion bushels, or three quarters of a percent less than the USDA forecast.
    The Pro Farmer forecast for the average price per bushel of corn for the 2013-14 crop year is $5.75, which is slightly higher than the USDA forecast range of $4.50-5.30.
    For the 2013-14 crop year, Pro Farmer forecast 76.5 million acres planted in soybeans, 0.7 million less than the August 12 USDA WASDE forecast. The expectation is that 75.6 million acres will be harvested and that the average yield will be 41.8 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushels per acre less than the USDA forecast. This produces a total soybean harvest forecast of 3.158 billion bushels, which is around 3 percent (or 97 million bushels) less than the USDA forecast. 
    ProFarmer's projected average price per bushel of soybeans is $13.50, which is substantially higher than the USDA WASDE report's projected range of $10.35-12.35 per bushel.

Monday, August 26, 2013

US corn market factors leading to production uncertainty

    The U.S. corn market is currently dealing with uncertainty across the board, including production stemming from acreage and yield considerations, acreage uncertainty as its own issue, and the pace of corn consumption, according to University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good.
    For acreage, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) currently estimates planted acreage at 97.379 million acres. The Farm Service Agency report of prevented acreage released the week of August 12 indicated prevented corn acreage of 3.411 million acres. The estimate exceeded expectations and resulted in speculation that the NASS estimate might eventually be reduced.
    However, there has not been a close relationship between prevented acres and the change in the NASS estimate of planted acres from June to the final estimate, according to Good. In 2010, for example, 2.1 million corn acres were reported as prevented, but the NASS final estimate of planted acres exceeded the June estimate by 320,000. In 2011, prevented acres totaled 3.01 million, yet the final NASS estimate of planted acres was only 346,000 less than the June estimate.
     Beyond planted acreage, there is some uncertainty about potential acreage harvested for grain. The difference between planted acreage and acreage harvested for grain averaged only 6.8 million acres in 2009 and 2010, about 400,000 less than the previous five-year average. The difference increased to 7.95 million in 2011 and 9.78 million in 2012 as poor weather resulted in more acres harvested for silage or abandoned. In 2013, NASS estimates the difference at 8.244 million acres. There is potential for the difference to vary from that estimate, depending on how the growing season ends, according to Good.
    The NASS August forecast of the U.S. average corn yield of 154.4 bushels per acre was three to four bushels less than expected. The initial reaction was that the forecast would be larger in subsequent reports. However, weather conditions have become less favorable as large areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois received less-than-average precipitation over the last 60 days and particularly over the past 30 days. While more seasonal temperatures in coming weeks will help advance maturity, the combination of warm and dry weather will likely result in declining crop condition ratings and yield expectations more in line with the USDA forecast, said Good.
    The pace of corn consumption has also accelerated as the 2012-2013 marketing year winds down. Based on weekly estimates of ethanol production, it appears that corn used for ethanol and co-product production during the last quarter of the marketing year will be 40 to 45 million bushels more than used during the summer quarter in 2011-2012. If so, use for the entire marketing year will exceed the previous USDA forecast by 30 to 35 million bushels.
    "Taken together, recent developments suggest that new crop corn prices may have established a low before harvest," said Good. "At least the extreme lows that have been reflected in some private forecasts now seem unlikely. The September 12, USDA Crop Production report looms as very important for price direction."

Monday, August 19, 2013

US corn, soybean production forecasts smaller than expected

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture's August Crop Production report forecast smaller-than-expected U.S. corn and soybean crops for 2013. The corn crop forecast is at 13.763 billion bushels, 242 million bushels smaller than the average trade guess, and the soybean crop forecast sits at 3.255 billion bushels, 81 million bushels smaller than the average trade guess.
    The forecast of corn area to be harvested for grain was unchanged from the June forecast of 89.135 million acres, but the average yield forecast of 154.4 bushels was 3.3 bushels lower than expected. Some of the larger yield forecast surprises were for Illinois and Indiana, where forecasts of 165 and 166 bushels, respectively, are well below the record yields anticipated based on generally favorable weather and high crop condition ratings, according to the University of Illinois. In contrast, the yield forecasts of 166 bushels for Minnesota and 163 bushels for Iowa are much higher than anticipated based on extensive planting delays and relatively low crop condition ratings.
    The inventory of old crop corn on hand at the beginning of the 2013-2014 marketing year on September 1 is forecast at 719 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from July's projection. Corn exports have staged a small late-summer rally and will be marginally larger than earlier forecast for the 2012-2013 marketing year. For the upcoming marketing year, the USDA lowered the projection of feed and residual use by 50 million bushels, reflecting expectations of less "residual" use with a smaller crop forecast. The projection of exports was reduced by 25 million bushels, reflecting larger production and export forecasts for the Ukraine.
    The projection of corn used for ethanol production was unchanged at 4.9 billion bushels, implying little growth in consumption of ethanol blends above 10 percent during the year ahead. Stocks at the end of the 2013-2014 marketing year are projected at 1.837 billion bushels, 122 million less than projected in July. The marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $4.50 to $5.30, $0.10 higher than projected in July.
    The estimate of area planted to soybeans was reduced by 550,000 acres from the June forecast, with most of the reduction coming in Kansas, Minnesota, North Carolina and South Dakota. The U.S average soybean yield is forecast at 42.6 bushels, about one bushel below the average trade guess. The yield forecast of 47 bushels for Illinois was surprisingly low while the forecast of 46 bushels for Iowa was larger than generally expected, according to the University of Illinois.
    The forecast of the inventory of old crop soybeans at the beginning of the 2013-2014 marketing year on September 1 was unchanged from July's projection of 125 million bushels. However, the forecast of the domestic crush during the year ending in August was increased by 25 million bushels, the forecast of imports was increased by 10 million bushels, and the forecast of exports was reduced by 15 million bushels. With just over three weeks left in the 2012-2013 marketing year, it appears that exports will be slightly larger than the revised forecast.
    For the upcoming marketing year, the forecast of the domestic soybean crush was reduced by 20 million bushels and the forecast of exports was reduced by 65 million bushels. The lower export forecast reflects anticipation of loss of market share to Argentina. Year-ending stocks of U.S. soybeans are projected at 220 million bushels, 75 million less than forecast in July. The marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $10.35 to $12.35, $0.60 above July's projection.
    For soybean oil, the forecast of consumption for biodiesel was increased by 200 million pounds, to a total of 5.7 billion pounds. That compares to expected consumption this year of only 4.6 billion pounds. The increase reflects the likely need to increase biodiesel production to meet the Renewable Fuels Standards for 2014, although the preliminary rules for 2014 have not yet been announced by the EPA. The forecast of domestic soybean oil consumption for other purposes was reduced by 200 million pounds.

USDA lowers corn production, corn yield forecasts for 2013

    The outlook for U.S. corn production in 2013 was reduced in August, largely based on anticipated lower corn yields. The USDA on August 11 released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which forecast the United States corn crop at 13.8 billion bushels.
    The August estimate for 2013 corn production was reduced from the July estimate, which was slightly more than 14 billion bushels.
    A decrease in expected corn yields was also reported in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. U.S. corn yields are forecast at 154.4 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels per acre from the July estimates. The August report was the first time in 2013 that corn production estimates were made using farmer surveys and field plot measurements. Previously in 2013, the corn production forecasts were made through the use of a statistical model for corn that predicts yield based on planting date, rainfall and temperature during the growing season.
    Although the report calls for a drop in corn yields and corn production, if the forecast of 13.8 billion bushels is realized, the 2013 U.S. corn crop will set a record, according to USDA economist, Joe Glauber. 

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

US feed gain supply outlook down on delayed plantings

    The outlook for 2013-2014 U.S. feed grain supplies has been lowered as delayed plantings reduce yield prospects for corn, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
    Corn production is projected 135 million bushels lower at 14 billion bushels, with the average yield projected at 156.5 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from May numbers. Forecast total use is down 70 million bushels to 12.9 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is lowered 125 million bushels to 5.2 billion bushels, but industrial use is raised 55 million bushels.
    According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service June 10 Crop Progress report, as of June 9, 95 percent of the corn crop had been planted, compared with 100 percent at the same point in the 2012 season and 98 percent for the 2008-2012 average. Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin were well behind the normal pace. Corn emergence statistics reveal more of the effects of cool, wet weather on the 2013 corn crop, with only 85 percent emerged as of June 9 compared with 99 percent in the previous season and 92 percent for the 2008-2012 average.
    As would be expected, emergence was well behind normal in the same states where planting was significantly delayed. Corn rated good or better comprised only 63 percent of the 18-state total, compared with 66 percent at the same point last season, according to the USDA.
    The projected 2013-2014 season average farm price for corn is raised $0.10 at both ends of the range to $5.20 to $4.40 per bushel, with a resulting midpoint of $4.80 per bushel. Prices are also raised for sorghum, barley and oats.
    For 2012-2013, corn imports and industrial use have been increased, but exports have been lowered, leaving forecast ending stocks up 10 million bushels. U.S. prices for old-crop corn are high compared with competitors, encouraging imports and discouraging exports. Brazil's 2012-2013 corn production is record large and raised again for June. The country's second-crop corn is just beginning to be harvested, and the Brazilian government increased area harvested for grain in its latest report. Recent showers across Mato Grosso came after the dry season had set in, providing a boost to corn in the grain-fill stage. Corn production is up 1 million tons in June to a record 77 million tons.

Friday, May 17, 2013

North, South American corn growers form international alliance


    The U.S. Grains Council, along with the National Corn Growers Association, MAIZAR, representing Argentina producers and the maize supply chain, and ABRAMILHO, the Brazilian Association of Corn Producers, have signed a memorandum of understanding to form an alliance of North and South American corn producers to collaborate on a global basis to address key issues concerning food security, biotechnology, stewardship, trade and producer image. The organizations will function under the name MAIZALL - The International Maize Alliance.
    The primary focus of the new alliance is to emphasize the need for better consumer understanding of production agriculture, including the benefits of biotechnology and advancing the global acceptance on the capacity to produce maize for feed, food and fuel. MAIZALL will also conduct outreach to governments and stakeholders on the need for trade-enabling biotechnology policies and regulatory procedures.
    Signatories to the memorandum representing the producer organizations included Don Fast, chairman, USGC; Pam Johnson, president, NCGA; Alberto Morelli, chairman, MAIZAR; and Sergio Luiz Bortolozzo, 2nd vice president, ABRAMILHO. The MAIZALL alliance was launched as part of the MAIZAR 2013 Congress meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
    "As both populations and economies continue to grow, the global middle class is expanding rapidly," said Fast. "The world population is expected to increase more than 30 percent in the next 40 years, from 7 billion in 2012 to more than 9 billion in 2050. The increase in population and buying power has led to an ever-growing demand for maize and other food and feed ingredients as diets are improving globally."
    As the world's population increases, farmers in exporting countries will be challenged to grow more with less while improving stewardship and sustainability. "In the three countries where it is embraced, biotechnology has boosted yields and grain quality, reduced the intensity of chemical and fertilizer application, conserved soil, organic content and moisture, and enhanced returns to producers," said Morelli. "Agricultural biotechnology is a critical component of the larger bio-economy that is necessary to sustainably provide for the needs of the growing global population and mitigate the impacts of climate change."

Friday, April 26, 2013

US Midwest flooding delays corn planting


    Heavy rainstorms the week of April 14 in the U.S. Midwest caused flooding as far south as Tennessee and have delayed the planting of corn crops, according to reports.
    Storms on April 17–18 in the northern Midwest dropped 5.4 inches of rain on Chicago and as much as 6 inches on parts of eastern Iowa, said AccuWeather. Corn planting in the largest U.S. producing states was 2 percent complete as of April 14, behind 2012’s pace of 16 percent, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. “The cold, rainy weather is of course reducing the sum of corn acreage that shall be planted each day of delay, while almost certainly increasing the sum of acreage to be planted to soybeans,” said economist Dennis Gartman.
    Corn futures for delivery in July fell 1.2 percent to $6.255 per bushel on April 22 on the Chicago Board of Trade, while soybeans for the same delivery month declined 0.7 percent to $13.7325 per bushel.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Kansas corn planting behind, topsoil moisture improving


    Kansas farmers have planted 3 percent of their planned corn crop, well behind both the 16 percent planted by mid-April in 2012 and the 10 percent average for this time frame, according to the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service.
    Topsoil moisture is improving in areas that have received significant rain or snow, but more precipitation is needed to have an impact on subsoil moisture, said the agency. Subsoil moisture is short to very short across 73 percent of the state, while topsoil moisture is short to very short in 40 percent of Kansas.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

US corn inventory may hit 26-year high on record output


    U.S. corn inventories are estimated to triple before the 2014 harvest, hitting a record 2.177 billion bushels from the 17-year low of 632 million bushels anticipated in 2013, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report. Yields could average 163.6 bushels per acre after falling to 123.4 bushels per acre in 2012, and corn production will rise 35 percent to a record 14.53 billion bushels as consumption increases 16 percent, said the report.
    Corn prices paid to farmers in the 12 months that begins September 1, will average $4.80 per bushel, down from a record $7.20 forecast in 2013. An increase in exports and use in domestic grain-based ethanol will be countered by declining gasoline consumption and increasing output in Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and India, said Peter Riley, an economist at the USDA's Farm Serve Agency. “The world market has changed as high U.S. prices have led to increased exports by other suppliers,” said Riley. “Falling U.S. gasoline consumption will restrain ethanol production. Brazil is shipping more to the U.S.”
    Through February 21, corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped 19 percent from a record $8.49 on August 10. The contract for May delivery rose 0.7 percent to $6.905 per bushel at 10:02 a.m.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

US corn surplus estimate up 5 percent on demand drop


    The U.S. corn surplus estimate is up 5 percent on slowing global demand, with current U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers at 632 million bushels on August 31, according to the latest reports. The inventory increase, up from January's 602 million bushel estimate, is still significantly less than 2012's 989 million bushels.
    The average estimate of 31 analysts in a Bloomberg survey was 616 million bushels. Corn futures have dropped 16 percent since reaching a record in August 2012 as global supplies improved and high prices slowed demand for U.S. exports and ethanol.
    U.S. exporters will sell 900 million bushels of corn in the year that ends August 31, down from 950 million forecast in January and the lowest since 1972, according to reports. In 2012, exporters shipped 1.543 billion bushels. Sales since September 1 are 52 percent behind a year earlier, say USDA data.
    An estimated 4.5 billion bushels of corn will be used to produce ethanol, unchanged from the January forecast and less than 5.011 billion in 2012, according to the USDA. Feed demand was forecast at 4.45 billion bushels, also unchanged from January and down from 4.548 billion bushels in 2012.
    World output in the crop year that began October 1, 2012, will be 854.38 million tons, up from 852.3 million tons forecast in January and down from 882.47 million in 2012. Global consumption is forecast to fall to 867.34 million tons from 879.39 million tons in 2012.
    Worldwide inventories at the end of the marketing year will be 118.04 million tons, up from 115.99 million predicted in January and down from 131.01 million tons in 2012, according to the USDA. 

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Food Price Index mostly unchanged in January


    The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index held steady at 210 points in January after three straight months of decline.
    Increases in oil and fats prices offset lower cereals and sugar quotations, while dairy and meat values remained basically unchanged.
    The pause in the index's decline tallies with a significant upward revision in the organization's latest forecast for 2012 world cereal production. This is now estimated at 2,302 million metric tons -- 20 million metric tons up on December 2012's forecast. The change mostly reflects adjustments to maize production estimates in China, North America and the European CIS countries. But even at the new level, global cereal output would still be 2 percent down on the 2011 record crop.
    Early prospects for 2013 cereal production point to increased world wheat output. Contributing largely to this prospect is an estimated 4 to 5 percent increase in the area under wheat in the European Union, where weather conditions have also been generally favorable so far. But in the United States, the outlook is not as good. Despite an estimated 1 percent increase in winter wheat plantings and prospects for spring wheat areas to expand, severe drought conditions continue to plague the southern Plains, where the condition of crops is reported to be very poor.
    The organization’s Meat Price Index averaged 176 in January, down only marginally from December. Quotations of all meat categories were generally stable, although a slight weakening in poultry and pork prices was evident.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Ag economist urging Congress to fix Renewable Fuel Standard


    The Renewable Fuel Standard is broken, but Congress can fix the rule by acting now and opening an inclusive, robust debate that leads to extensive reform, Dr. Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC, said at a media briefing on February 4.
    Elam presented his remarks on behalf of the National Chicken Council and National Turkey Federation.
    Congress in 2005 enacted the first Renewable Fuel Standard which mandated levels of ethanol to be blended with gasoline. In 2007 that ethanol mandate was expanded, and biodiesel was added. The Environmental Protection Agency on January 31 proposed new percentage standards for four fuel categories that are part of the agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard. The proposal is open for a 45-day public comment period, and the agency will consider feedback before the proposal is finalized.

    Renewable Fuel Standard challenge for industry
    Elam stated that 2007 was a game changer, referring to it as a "Hail Mary."
    "We did not then, and still do not today, have the volume of agricultural raw materials, or the required cellulosic ethanol technology, to meet the 2007 Renewable Fuel Standards goals," he said. "Nearly six years later, it's still not a commercial reality. The courts just a few weeks ago ruled this to be the case, as well."
    Corn production has declined while Renewable Fuel Standard mandates have increased, Elam said while discussing the past three years. Smaller supplies have resulted in more than doubling of the most important input cost to poultry production — feed.
    "Since Renewable Fuel Standard's enactment in 2005, annual feed costs for chicken producers have risen $8.8 billion, and turkey by $1.9 billion," he added. Cumulative additional costs for broilers and turkeys since 2006 total more than $42 billion.

    Price increases passed along to consumers
    Poultry producers are not the only ones being hit with added costs, though. Elam said these costs are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
    "USDA's average wholesale broiler meat prices leapt from 68 cents in 2005 to a record high 91 cents in December, 2012—a 35 percent increase. Turkey meat soared from 79 cents in 2005 to a record high of 120 cents a few months ago. And it's not just poultry that costs more. A variety of food products that depend heavily on corn feed are also more expensive. It's safe to say Renewable Fuel Standards is hitting consumers, poultry producers and farmers squarely in the pocketbook."
    Another unintended consequence from Renewable Fuel Standards is bankruptcy for some. Elam noted that since 2008, eight major poultry producers filed for bankruptcy, and last year, the poultry industry's contract farmers—this includes many small family farms that raise live birds — lost about $500 million in potential income. "This loss is attributable to chicken and turkey production that did not happen because of higher feed costs," he explained.
    "We need to inject a dose of reality into Renewable Fuel Standards, especially when corn supplies are limited due to historically low inventories," Elam continued. "Renewable Fuel Standards is a man-made crisis. The 2012 drought was not… As a witness to the devastating impact of Renewable Fuel Standards on the good people who work so hard to feed our country, I say, allow them to compete on a level playing field with fuel ethanol producers who have an unfair advantage thanks to the 2007 Renewable Fuel Standards rule changes.
    Another concern Elam shared was that the market for E85 ethanol blends is not as large as some may lead others to believe.
    “We’ve had E85 on the market for seven or eight years now, and consumers have not exactly flocked to E85, even though it’s been available. People don’t walk into a dealer buying a new car, saying ‘I’ve got to have a flex-fuel vehicle,’” Elam said. The fact is that ethanol is so expensive compared to gasoline on an energy basis, not a per gallon basis, that E85 is far from economical to put into your car on a cost-per-mile basis because of the reduction you see in your mileage.”

    Ethanol exports on the horizon
    Elam added that without a feasible market, the U.S. could end up exporting ethanol to other countries, “and I don’t think that was the intent of the law.”
    Other groups participating in the media briefing included ActionAid, Taxpayers for Common Sense, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, Environmental Working Group and National Marine Manufacturers Association.
    Kristin Sundell, who spoke on behalf of ActionAid, said her organization’s biggest concerns about the fuel standards “puts a strain on land and food supplies, contributing to hunger and political instability across the world.”
    Developing countries are still feeling the pinch of the U.S. drought and it’s impact on feed supplies, Sundell said, and that problem is magnified by the diversion of more than 40 percent of U.S. corn for ethanol production, in order to meet Renewable Fuel Standard mandates, Sundell added.
    Tom Faber, vice president of government affairs for the Environmental Working Group, said ethanol production has hurt the environment, as 23 million acres of grassland and wetlands have been converted for corn production. That is a land mass the size of Indiana, Faber added. That conversion of idle land is driving more carbon to be released into the atmosphere, creating more herbicide and pesticide runoff, and is reducing the amount of available wildlife habitat, he said.
    Elam and Steve Ellis, who moderated the media briefing and spoke on behalf of Taxpayers for Common Sense, said they will be participating in congressional briefings February 5 in Washington.
    The proposed 2013 overall volumes and standards are: Biomass-based diesel (1.28 billion gallons; 1.12 percent); Advanced biofuels (2.75 billion gallons; 1.60 percent); Cellulosic biofuels (14 million gallons; 0.008 percent); and Total renewable fuels (16.55 billion gallons; 9.63 percent.)

Friday, February 1, 2013

University of Arkansas releases corn production app


    The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture has developed a "Corn Advisor" app that turns a smartphone or tablet into an anytime, any place corn expert, according to developers.
    Corn Advisor consists of six different interactive features that give producers quick access to production information. It’s available at no cost through Google’s Play store, or by clicking http://alturl.com/buh5d. Once installed on the Android smartphone or tablet powered by Android 2.2 operating system or higher, the app does not require its user to be connected to the Internet in order to access any of the features.
    The app allows users to search for:
    • Recommendations on application of lime, plus nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, zinc and sulfur.
    • Becoming familiar with the symptoms of nutrient deficiency, plus information about corn diseases, pests and their control practices.
    App users will also be able to access the “Corn Production Handbook,” MP437, a mainstay for corn growers published by the Cooperative Extension Service. “With the number of cellphones and tablets we see out in the fields, this app was really a natural progression of how the Division of Agriculture serves its clients," said Jason Kelley, an associate professor and extension specialist for wheat and feed grains, and one of the specialists who collaborated in the development of app. "With the growth in corn acreage in Arkansas over the last few years, we believe our clients will find this useful."
    The funding for the app development was provided through Arkansas Corn Grower check-off funds through the Arkansas Corn and Grain Sorghum Promotion Board and the Cooperative Extension Service, University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.