US poultry production to increase in 2015, says USDA

U.S. poultry production is expected to increase in the first quarter of 2015, according to the USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on May 9. Offering its first glimpse into 2015, the USDA called for an increase in the production of both broilers and turkeys, citing lower forecast feed prices and record wholesale broiler prices in 2014 as incentives to increase production in 2015. 
U.S. broiler production for the first quarter of 2015 was forecast at nearly 9.5 billion pounds, up from the 9.3 billion pounds produced in the first quarter of 2014. U.S. turkey production was forecast at 1.4 billion pounds for the first quarter of 2015, up from the 1.3 billion pounds produced during the same quarter of 2014.
The May 9 WASDE report also forecast an increase in U.S. poultry supplies for 2015. The projected total 2015 supply for broilers is 39.6 billion pounds, while the projected total 2015 supply for turkey is 6.2 billion pounds. Exports of both broilers and turkeys are expected to see small increases in 2015. 

A period of sustainable confidence in the poultry industry?

One year ago the poultry industry was expressing confidence in its future. A subsequent drought then brought high grain prices. Optimism quickly faded.
Confidence has returned. However, unlike a year ago, the current fundamentals suggest a run of good fortunes rather than a momentary blip.
The Overall Index for the WATT/Rennier Poultry Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2013 now stands at 140.0 (1996=100), up from 113.1 last quarter. The Expectations Index rose to 144.2 from 107.0 while the Present Situation Index increased to 137.2 from 117.2.
Why are these PCI numbers so improved from a quarter ago? We can point to three factors:


First and foremost, most expect this year’s harvest to be big enough to lower and stabilize corn prices.
Second, small cattle herds contribute to high beef prices which simultaneously enhance and mask rising prices for poultry in the supermarket.
Finally, integrators cannot act on their natural tendency to expand production when costs go down and prices go up as the breeder stock is in short supply until 2014 (including the grandparent stock).

The result has been 10 percent higher Georgia dock prices for whole chickens versus a year ago. Prices for boneless breasts were recently 14 percent higher and rising.
These positive fundamentals –- declining input costs, high prices for poultry meat, growing consumer demand and constrained production –- are why Rabobank has flagged the poultry industry as “good profitability.” Validating this prediction was Sanderson Farms’ mention that “improved market conditions” were responsible for the company’s better-than-expected results.
All together, these findings strongly suggest that the poultry industry could be entering into a period of high and sustained profitability.

House of Raeford transition from turkey production going well

House of Raeford Farms' plan to phase out of the commodity turkey business to focus on its broiler sector and ready-to-cook chicken and turkey products is going smoothly, according to the company's managment.
On March 14 the company announced it would phase out House of Raeford Farms' commodity turkey growing and slaughter operations in eastern North Carolina,  which includes closing its Rose Hill hatchery and Raeford slaughter plant. It also means farmers raising turkeys for the operation would no longer have a secure place to sell their birds.
Turkey products will remain part of business
While House of Raeford will no longer be in the turkey growing business, it will continue to process turkey products. Ready-to-cook poultry products are growing in popularity with consumers, whether they are chicken or turkey meat.
"The recent changes we made were not only based on an increased emphasis on chicken production, but also on the expansion of our fully-cooked turkey and chicken product lines," said Robert C. Johnson, House of Raeford's chief executive officer.
Products that House of Raeford plans to expand processing of include ready-to-cook chicken, tray pack ground turkey and chicken, battered and breaded nuggets and patties, and fully-cooked turkey and chicken products.
The company envisions maintaining a successful and fully-operational turkey cook plant to process turkeys, but the birds will be grown and provided outside of the company. At the present time, House of Raeford does not have any plans to re-enter the turkey growing and slaughtering business, even if it becomes more financially viable.
Growth of chicken sector
The move to place more emphasis on chicken products was a direct reflection on the promising financial state of the broiler industry, versus the economic struggles of the turkey industry, according to Johnson.
"We have seen steady growth in our chicken operations over the past decade, and we have confidence that the broiler markets will continue to be profitable," he said.
At the time the changes were announced, the chicken business represented more than 90 percent of the company's sales. Within the past 10 years, growth in chicken operations helped House of Raeford transform into one of the nation's top-10 chicken producers and processors.
Meanwhile, the effect of high corn prices has had a harsh effect on the turkey industry. With multiple years of flat-to-declining per-capita turkey consumption, and falling turkey commodity prices, the company opted to no longer grow its own turkeys.
 "The increased emphasis on fully cooked, ready-to-eat turkey and chicken products as well as expanded broiler production will certainly affect our future marketing plans and the positioning of the company going forward," said Robert C. Johnson, House of Raeford's chief executive officer. "However, we will continue to preserve the benefits of a family-owned and operated company with a focus on producing safe, wholesome and great-tasting products. These are the qualities that have allowed us to be successful for more than 50 years."
Facilities undergoing changes
Johnson said the company is still in the early stages of the transition, but "everything seems to be on the original 4 to 6 month phase-out timing."
The Rose Hill hatchery will be closing in early May, while the processing plant in Raeford continues to work in all departments until the slaughtering process ends. That is projected to be sometime in May.
There are no current plans for establishing a new facility for the expanded processing of ready-to-cook chicken products, said Johnson. Nor will the company need to repurpose the closing turkey slaughter plant. The capacity in the existing plants over the next two to three years, Johnson said, will be sufficient.
The company will, however, continue to operate its Raeford cook plant, and will expand its production on value-added chicken and turkey products.
Working with growers, employees
House of Raeford's management would like to continue to work with many of the growers it has been associated with while in the commodity turkey business, if they are willing to transition their turkey operations into broiler operations.
"These discussions are in the early stages with each of our turkey growers, so only a few firm decisions have been made at this point. However, we expect many growers will make the decision to convert to broiler production as we expand our chicken production operations," Johnson said.
As for employees at the affected House of Raeford facilities, the company is doing what it can to see that as many as possible can maintain employment.
"We expect many employees from the hatchery operation in Rose Hill will transfer to one of our two chicken processing plants in the same county. Since the Raeford, turkey processing plant will not close for three or four months, we have not actually begun these specific discussions with our employees at that location," Johnson said.
The company has also contacted other meat processors in the area who are willing to employ Raeford processing plant employees for positions in their companies.

US turkey growth outpacing chicken

Sales of turkey, duck and other specialty birds in the U.S. grew by 6.5 percent in 2011–2012, reaching $7.1 billion and outpacing sales of chicken, according to the latest Mintel research on the U.S. poultry market.
This number makes up a significant part of the $30 billion poultry industry, and has increased from $6 billion in 2008. In comparison, sales of chicken parts grew 4.5 percent year-on-year, from $17.3 billion in 2011, and whole chickens reported sales of $5.5 billion in 2012, an increase of 0.6 percent over 2011.
“The growth of other poultry products over 2011 and 2012 is partly attributed to the increasing popularity of Heritage turkeys, which are bigger, take longer to reach maturity and sell for more than standard turkeys," said John N. Frank, category manager for Mintel Food and Drink. "However, if other poultry products, like turkey, want to continue their impressive growth and not just be seen as the festive centerpiece, they will need to provide the level of innovation that is being seen in the chicken parts segment.
"As for the poultry market as a whole, it’s not surprising that chicken parts make up the majority of sales — they represent an attractive option for shoppers who want a convenient and healthy choice for quick dinners, while whole chickens take a substantial amount of time to prepare and culinary know-how,” said Frank.
Poultry in general might also start pulling in some consumers from the red meat market, according to Mintel. Nearly four in 10 (38 percent) U.S. consumers say they have increased their consumption of poultry in the last year, peaking among younger adults, with 43 percent of those aged 18–24 eating more versus 36 percent of the most senior consumers (aged 65+). More than eight in 10 (84 percent) Americans say they eat turkey; chicken is eaten by 94 percent and other poultry, such as duck, goose and hen, are consumed by 23 percent of the population.

US ethanol mandate, feed costs constant challenge to poultry industry

The U.S. ethanol mandate and current feed costs were hot topics at the National Chicken Council's 58th Annual Conference industry outlook panel, with panelists focusing on the ongoing debate over the renewable fuel standard and "food versus fuel."
See the video from the panel here.
“In 2006, the ethanol mandate began to really take a bite against the protein complex, and since that time on a cumulative basis, we’ve seen about $31 billion in new costs that have come in to the chicken business," said panelist Paul Fox, CEO of O.K. Foods. "And I don’t know if it’s going to get better, honestly, because I think we’re at a point where we’re almost using 42 percent of our nation’s corn product and it sounds like that’s going to continue to grow and that’s a new source of demand.” According to Fox, the market balances supply and demand in theory, but now there are elements of volatility being dealt with causing the market to work independently of that theory.
“There are a lot of industries that have gone through downturns," said Fox. "But something that’s unique to the chicken industry at this particular juncture … we haven’t seen an actual consolidator of any significant size, at least domestically, step up and start to take advantage of the fact that there are cheap chicken companies that have been offered for sale. Consequently, today in North America two of the three largest chicken companies are under control by foreign capital. I think that that’s probably a consequence that wouldn’t have been intended by our national policy in the outset.”
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report, the corn harvest is at 10.7 billion bushels, down 21 million from the September estimate and 13.4 percent less than in 2011. This number has made the renewable fuel standard a hot-button issue for the agriculture industry and the U.S. government at large, but Dr. Clayton Yeutter, senior advisor for Hogan Lovells and panel moderator, said he thinks a decision on whether to renew the standard won't be made until after the November elections. After the elections, what happens will depend largely on how much pressure is applied to the Environmental Protection Agency, and from which parts of the government that pressure is applied, said Yeutter.
Overall, though, Yeutter said that while the agriculture industry may battle in the short term, the long term path is clear. “In the long pull, if and when this comes out to be a true food versus fuel decision, with global consequences of great significance, food is going to win over fuel,” he said. “We’re going to need as much food produced between now and the year 2050 as has been produced in the entire world during its history until now.”
See videos of the entire panel here.

Heat-damaged corn crops may raise poultry prices in Delmarva

Heat-damaged corn and soybean crops in the Delmarva Peninsula (an area that includes most of Delaware and some of Maryland and Virginia) could lead to higher poultry prices in the area as feed prices are affected, according to farmers.
Twenty-six percent of corn and soybean crops were poor or very poor in Maryland as of July 8, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Forty-nine percent of corn in Maryland is less than good quality. Soybeans still have time to improve, but corn is a little farther along, said Geno Lowe, the director of the United Soybean Board.
According to Buddy Hance, Maryland's secretary of agriculture, poultry hasn't been very profitable for the last three to four years and grain prices haven't been conducive to helping the economy. The U.S. average corn price in 2010 was $3.83 per bushel, according to the University of Illinois. In 2011, the price was $6.01 per bushel, and as of May 2012 it was $6.33 per bushel. “That’s not good for us in Delmarva,” said Hance.
Higher grain prices will put a strain on poultry farmers, which could cause some to lose their jobs, said Lee Richardson of the Wicomico County Farm Bureau. “There’ll be less employees that have to do more work,” said Richardson. “That’ll be the most direct effect on the area.” He said he also expects poultry prices, and meat prices in general, to increase.
According to Hance, early predictions indicate there will be a 7 percent price increase for poultry in the Delmarva area, but others believe the increase won't be as big.
“All our corn and soybeans go into chicken feed, but I don’t think it’s going to affect the supply here,” said Richard Nottingham, the agriculture agent at the University of Maryland Extension. “Farmers are going to see a reduction in what they can harvest, but I don’t see it being that severe.”

2012 US poultry production forecast revised up

The 2012 forecast of total U.S. poultry production has been raised from March numbers, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The broiler production forecast has been raised for the first half of 2012 based on production data to date and stronger forecast first-half prices. Turkey production has been forecast higher as turkey price forecasts have been raised on current strong prices, and the egg production forecast has also been raised slightly, according to the report. Egg price forecasts have been raised on stronger expected midyear prices.
The broiler export forecast has been reduced slightly from March numbers on higher prices.
For more poultry information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.  

US poultry production forecasts up for 2012

The 2012 forecast for total poultry and red meat production has been raised from February estimates as higher broiler and turkey production is expected to more than offset lower forecast beef production, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Broiler production forecast is raised (to 36.3 billion pounds compared to February's estimate of 36.1 billion pounds) based on January production data and stronger forecast prices. Turkey production is forecast higher for 2012 (5.915 billion pounds as opposed to 5.855 billion pounds) as higher prices are expected to encourage a more rapid expansion, but egg production is lowered slightly (7.655 billion pounds compared to 7.675 billion pounds) as prices are forecast lower.
For more poultry information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.  

US poultry certified wholesome down in December 2011

U.S. poultry certified wholesome during December 2011 (ready-to-cook weight) totaled 3.37 billion pounds, down 9 percent from the amount certified in December 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
The preliminary total live weight of all federally inspected poultry during December 2011 was 4.46 billion pounds, down 9 percent from the 4.9 billion pounds during the same time in 2010. Young chickens inspected totaled 3.81 billion pounds, down 10 percent from December 2010, and mature chickens, at 64.6 million pounds, were down 8 percent. Turkey inspections totaled 575 million pounds, down 1 percent from 2010 numbers, and ducks totaled 15.2 million pounds, up 1 percent. Young chickens slaughtered during December 2011 averaged 5.78 pounds per bird, down 1 percent from December 2010. The average live weight of mature chickens was 5.59 pounds per bird, down 4 percent from 2010 numbers. Turkeys slaughtered during December 2011 averaged 30.3 pounds per bird, up 1 percent from December 2010.
For more poultry statistics and information, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.  

Six US poultry farms receive environmental excellence award

The six poultry farm winners of the Family Farm Environmental Excellence Award pose at the 2012 International Poultry Expo.

Six U.S. poultry farms received the annual Family Farm Environmental Excellence Award on January 24 at the 2012 International Poultry Expo. 

The award, sponsored by the U.S. Poultry & Egg Association, is given in acknowledgment of exemplary environmental stewardship by family farmers engaged in poultry and egg production.

Winners were chosen from six geographical regions from throughout the U.S.:

• Hack Farms (West)
• Cooley Farms (Southeast)
• Hillview Farms (Southwest)
• Pine Draft Farm (Northeast)
• Flintrock Farms (North Central)
• Hesse Farm (Central)

Applicants were rated in several categories, including dry litter or liquid manure management, nutrient management planning, community involvement, wildlife enhancement techniques, innovative nutrient management techniques, and participation in education or outreach programs. 

US poultry live weight down in October

The preliminary total live weight of all federally inspected poultry during October 2011 was 4.86 billion pounds, down 3% from 4.99 billion pounds in 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
Young chickens inspected totaled 4.12 billion pounds, down 3% from October 2010. Mature chickens were up 6%, at 68.6 million pounds, and turkeys were up slightly, at 659 million pounds. Ducks totaled 14 million pounds, up 4% from 2010 numbers.
Poultry certified wholesome during October 2011 (ready-to-cook weight) totaled 3.67 billion pounds, down 2% from the amount certified in October 2010. The September 2011 revised certified total, at 3.71 billion pounds, was down 1% from September 2010. The September revision represented an increase of 0.33 million pounds from the preliminary pounds certified.
Young chickens slaughtered during October 2011 averaged 5.88 pounds per bird, up slightly from October 2010. The average live weight of mature chickens was 5.72 pounds per bird, down 3% from 2010 numbers. Turkeys slaughtered during October 2011 averaged 28.3 pounds per bird, down slightly from October 2010.

US broiler production to decrease in fourth quarter 2011

Fourth-quarter 2011 broiler meat production is forecast at 9 billion pounds, 5.1% below 2010 production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
The lower fourth-quarter production is expected to be driven by sharp declines in the number of birds slaughtered, but these declines are expected to be somewhat offset by an increase in average live weights. Preliminary slaughter data show a lower overall number of broilers slaughtered driven by reduced numbers of lighter birds, pointing toward higher average weights.
Broiler meat production in third-quarter 2011 was 9.53 billion pounds, 0.3% percent above the same period in 2010. This increase was the result of a 3% rise in average live weights, to 5.8 pounds. The increase offsets a decline of 2.9% in the number of broilers slaughtered. Broiler meat production in 2012 is forecast at 36.7 billion pounds, a decrease of 1.7% from 2011.
The decline in broiler meat production is expected to come mainly from a lower number of birds slaughtered, as bird weights are expected to be close to or slightly higher than in 2011. Broiler integrators are not expected to have any strong incentive to expand production, due to the combination of continued high prices for corn and soybean meal and relatively low broiler product prices at the wholesale level.

US turkey poults up 8% in September

Net poult placements were up from 2010 and down slightly from August 2011.

U.S. turkey poults hatched during September 2011 totaled 23.8 million, up 8% from September 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
Poults hatched were down slightly from the August 2011 total of 23.9 million poults. The 23.5 million net poults placed during September 2011 in the U.S. were up 8% from the number placed during the same month in 2010, while net placements were down 2% from the August 2011 total of 23.9 million. Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2011, totaled 27.5 million, up 5% from October 1, 2010. Eggs in incubators were down 2% from the September 1, 2011, total of 28.1 million eggs.

US poultry production forecast up for 2011

The 2011 forecast of total poultry and red meat production has been raised, reflecting higher turkey, beef and pork production, but lower broiler production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest world agricultural supply and demand estimates.
Broiler production estimates have been reduced as lower egg sets point to a sharp reduction in later-year bird slaughter. However, continued relatively heavy bird weights have resulted in an increase in expected third-quarter production. Table egg production estimates have increased but have been partly offset by lower expected broiler hatching egg production. For 2012, broiler production has been reduced from September estimates, specifically in the first quarter, as broiler price forecasts have been weakened.
Broiler exports have been raised slightly for 2011, but remain the same for 2012.

Rabobank: meat, poultry production to drop in 2012

U.S. meat and poultry production is headed for what researchers at the Rabobank International Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory group anticipate to be a “precipitous fall” by mid-2012, according to a recently released report.
The group’s “Where’s the Beef?” report notes that drought in the U.S. is a major contributor to the production decline, but finds that global meat and poultry production is in the midst of a multi-year process of adjusting to higher and more volatile feed costs. Since the U.S. is a significant exporter of meat protein, the decline will also affect world markets as well as demand for feed, including corn. “The drastic decline in protein production we anticipate will be felt in a number of industries,” said David Nelson, global strategist with the Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory team. “We expect the decline will create concerns for everyone from foodservice operators to corn producers.”
The report delves into domestic and global consumption trends. Per-capita meat consumption in the U.S. appears to have peaked. The poultry industry, in particular, should no longer count on rising domestic demand as a means of growing its way out of over-production situations, according to the report. However, a rising GDP in the developing world is contributing to an increasing global for meat protein. “The greater global demand for meat protein is the key driver to rising feed costs, which in turn drive up the cost of raising animal protein,” said Nelson. “Global meat and poultry production continues to significantly lag GDP growth, which is, of course, the key factor behind rising prices.”
The report notes the U.S. broiler industry is suffering some of its worst-ever financial losses. The industry has expanded breast meat output at a time when demand has been softening due to the weak economy. Despite some cutbacks in bird production, the report predicts profits will remain under pressure into early 2012 as bird weights have provided a significant offset, and due to a large increase in breast meat inventory. Barring further market dislocation, the report authors believe that the industry can return to profitability some time next spring, but only if the more aggressive cutbacks that the researchers expect actually take place.
Swine is the bright spot in the report, according to the researchers. The report suggests that in 2012 hog prices could end up on average 10% higher than even the record levels seen in 2011. The current supply and demand situation for the U.S. pork industry is much more stable than for beef or poultry. Strong export demand (currently accounting for roughly 25% of output) coupled with solid domestic pricing has allowed producers and packers to weather the storm of rising feed costs. That said, the deterioration in U.S. crop conditions — leading to higher corn prices — has dampened the outlook a bit.

US egg-type chicks hatched up in August

U.S. egg-type chicks hatched during August totaled 41.6 million, up 12% from August 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Eggs in incubators totaled 39.1 million on Sept. 1, up 5% from the same time in 2010. Domestic placements of egg-type pullet chicks for future hatchery supply flocks by leading breeders totaled 311 thousand during August, up 23% from August 2010.
Broiler-type chicks hatched during August 2011 totaled 761 million, down 5% from August 2010. Eggs in incubators totaled 601 million on Sept. 1, down 6% from the same time in 2010. Leading breeders placed 7.23 million broiler-type pullet chicks for future domestic hatchery supply flocks during August 2011, down 1% from August 2010.
For more poultry statistics, please visit www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.  

Poultry top-grossing Kentucky product in 2010

Poultry was Kentucky's top-grossing product for the second year in 2010, with cash receipts coming in at $953 million, according to statistics released to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The number beat 2009's total of $912 million, and both numbers have outgrown Kentucky's now second-largest industry, horses. Cattle and calves came in third, at $616 million for 2010, while corn and soybeans took the fourth and fifth spots with $604 million and $583 million, respectively. They were the highest-grossing planted crops for 2010.
Overall, the state's 2010 cash receipts came in at $4.4 billion, topping 2009's $4.3 billion.

US broiler eggs, chicks down for end of August

U.S. commercial hatcheries in the 19-state weekly program set 192 million eggs in incubators during the week ending Aug. 27, 2011, down 7% from the eggs set the corresponding week in 2010 (see chart).
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, average hatchability for chicks hatched during the week was 85%.
Broiler growers in the program placed 164 million chicks for meat production during the week, down 4% from the comparable week in 2010. Cumulative placements from Jan. 2, 2011, through Aug. 27, 2011, were 5.75 billion, down 1% from 2010 numbers (see chart). 

US poultry certified wholesome up in June

Mature chickens slaughtered in June averaged 6.03 pounds per bird.

Poultry certified wholesome during June 2011 (ready-to-cook weight) totaled 3.86 billion pounds, up 5% from the amount certified in June 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
The May 2011 revised certified total at 3.79 billion pounds, was up 8% from May 2010. The May revision represented an increase of 10.0 million pounds from the previous month's preliminary pounds
certified.
The preliminary total live weight of all federally inspected poultry during June 2011 was 5.11 billion pounds, up 5% from 4.88 billion pounds in 2010. Young chickens inspected totaled 4.37 billion pounds, up 4% from June 2010. Mature chickens, at 79.0 million pounds, were up 12% from 2010 numbers. Turkey inspections totaled 650 million pounds, up 7%. Ducks totaled 14.0 million pounds, up 3% from 2010.
Young chickens slaughtered during June 2011 averaged 5.81 pounds per bird, up 3% from June 2010. The average live weight of mature chickens was 6.03 pounds per bird, up 5% compared to 2010 numbers. Turkeys slaughtered during June 2011 averaged 29.3 pounds per bird, up 1% from June 2010.

US broiler meat production slowing through 2012

2012 broiler production is estimated to be up just 1.1% from anticipated 2011 numbers.

U.S. broiler meat production for the first 5 months of 2011 was 15.5 billion pounds, up 4.8% from the same period in 2010, due to a greater number of birds being slaughtered and higher average weights at slaughter, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report. However, starting in late May and continuing through the most recent data, the number of eggs placed in incubators and the number of chicks placed for growout has turned sharply lower than in 2010, and broiler meat production in third-quarter 2011 is expected to be below that of the same time in 2010.
The falling year-over-year production is expected to continue in fourth-quarter 2011, and the fourth-quarter production estimate was lowered to 9.3 billion pounds, down 75 million from the earlier estimate. Production for all of 2011 is estimated at 38.4 billion pounds.
The relatively higher grain prices and the sluggish economy are expected to influence broiler production through 2012. Production in 2012 was reduced by 230 million pounds to 37.8 billion pounds, up only 1.1% from the 2011 total. Most of the reduction was attributed to changes in the second half of 2012, as the expected production increase in that period is now expected to be more modest than originally forecast.
At the beginning of June the number of birds in the broiler breeder flock was estimated at 54.8 million, down just less than 1% from a year earlier. If the size of the broiler breeder flock remains below the previous year over the next several months, the number of eggs placed in incubators and chicks hatched are expected to continue to be significantly lower compared with 2010, and this will reduce the number of birds available for slaughter.