Brazil corn, soybean forecasts reduced

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  Brazil has reduced its forecast for corn and soybean harvests this year.

  From WATTAgNet:
  Brazil has reduced its forecast for corn and soybean harvests this year, citing too much rain in some areas and too little rain in others.
  Officials cut the soybean estimate by 1.32 million tons to 93.26 million tons. Evidence from the first 20 percent of the harvest shows some signs of damage to yields.
  The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to reduce its forecast for Brazilian soybeans by 500,000 tons to 94 million tons, and its corn forecast by 380,000 tons to 74.62 million tons.
  “Rainfall irregularities” in Mato Grasso do Sul caused that region’s forecast by 385,000 tons to 3.45 million tons. Dry conditions in Parana lowered the forecast there, and “excess rainfall” in Rio Grande do Sul has “compromised” crop conditions by encouraging fungal disease Asian rust.
  In Minas Gerais, “absence of rains in January” caused a “substantial reduction” in production expectations, although recent rainfall has been encouraging. In Goias, rains in February were “not sufficient to mitigate the effects of the long period of drought” that came before the precipitation.
  Rainfall has been especially heavy in Santa Catarina, which means farmers will need to spend more to dry their grain, or crops will be damaged by the weather.

Register for WATT crop forecast and meat supply webinar

Tim Brusnahan, Richard A. Brock & Associates, and Dr. Paul Aho, Poultry Perspective, will provide an analysis of supply and demand issues for corn, soybeans, poultry, meat and eggs during a WATT crop forecast and meat supply and price outlook webinar.
The webinar will take place at 10 a.m. Central time on May 14. To register for the webinar, go to WattAgNet.com.
Participants will learn the most current information regarding the U.S. feed market for 2013, key observations about whether the U.S. crop production will get back into a trend line yield in 2013, strategies for feed users and wholesale meat and poultry supply and pricing for 2013.
Current weather trends and planting progress will be factored into their projections for corn and soybean meal prices for the rest of this crop year and into the next. Markets for meats will be evaluated based on forecasted grain prices and availabilities and on supply situations for poultry and red meats.
This webinar is sponsored by VALCO and Merck Animal Health. It is part of the 2013 WATT AgNet Webinar Series. 

WATTAgNet, Farm Journal to host ‘Grain & Meat Outlook’ webinar March 26

WATTAgNet and Farm Journal Media will present the first webinar in a three-part “Grain & Meat Outlook” series on March 26 at 10 a.m. CDT.
This first “Grain & Meat Outlook” webinar will focus on March U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports, prospects for the spring planting season, and the effects of the current grain supply on protein production, specifically poultry production.
The webinar will feature expert speakers Chip Flory, ProFarmer editor, and Dr. Thomas Elam, president of FarmEconLLC.
Register for the “Grain & Meat Outlook” webinar online.
What you’ll learn:
• The most current information regarding the U.S. feed market for 2013
• Key observations about whether the U.S. crop production will get back to a trend line yield in 2013
• Strategies for feed users
• Wholesale meat and poultry supply and pricing for 2013
More information about this webinar and other upcoming webinars is available at www.wattagnet.com/Upcoming_Webinars.aspx.

Iowa drought expected to continue through winter

The U.S. drought that ruined crops over the summer and has caused significant problems for farmers is expected to continue in Iowa through the winter and into 2013, according to government weather reports.
Currently, 69 percent of Iowa is in severe to exceptional drought, an improvement over the 100 percent reported in August. During the winter months, conditions are expected to improve in the eastern part of Iowa but persist or intensify in the western two-thirds of the state, where conditions already are the worst, according to reports. “We’re expecting persistence of that drought through the winter months and through early spring, and with the climate signals being relatively weak ... it’s very difficult to really say how the spring will materialize with regard to the drought outlook,” said Jon Gottschalck, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
Since farmers plant the majority of their corn between mid-April and mid-May, and their soybeans between mid-May and early June, they are concerned that a poor winter could affect their sowing. “We are still very short of subsoil moisture or reserve moisture that our crop will be able to tap into unless we get normal or above-normal snowfall during the winter,” said Justin Dammann, a southwest Iowa corn and cattle farmer. “I’m concerned also as far as next year because we seem to be in a pattern of weather extremes, and they are hard to manage from a crop production standpoint.”

USDA revises corn production down further on drought damage

U.S. corn production is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 13 percent from 2011 and the lowest production since 2006 as conditions continue to worsen due to drought, according to the USDA's latest report.
Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 23.8 bushels from 2011. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.
August 13 webinar to address crop report
In a webinar August 13, Tim Brusnahan, Richard A. Brock & Associates, and Chris Hurt, Purdue University, will analyze and discuss the August crop report.
There is still time to sign up for the webinar, sponsored by Pfizer Animal Health Global Poultry and part of the 2012 WattAgNet Webinar Series.
Following their presentations, Brusnahan and Hurt will answer questions posed by the moderator and the live webinar audience.
Learn more about this webinar and sign up to attend: http://www.wattagnet.com/More_Info_webinar.aspx?taxonomyid=6898&menuparentId=6897&id=153491
Corn prices continue to soar
Corn prices, which reached record levels above $8 per bushel in July, could go as high as $8.90 per bushel, far above the initial $4.80 per bushel projected in April at planting time. On the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures sold for $8.43 a bushel shortly after the report was issued on Aug. 10, as traders already factored lower production into their numbers.
Soybean production has also been reduced, to 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from 2011 numbers. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from 2011. If realized, the average yield will be the lowest since 2003, according to the USDA. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June but up 1 percent from 2011.
Surplus corn stocks going into 2013 are projected at 650 million bushels, down significantly from 1.18 billion bushels forecast in July and the smallest carryout since 1995–1996. Global corn ending stocks are also estimated down, at 123.33 million metric tons compared to the 134.09 metric tons forecast by the USDA in July. Total corn use is projected 1.5 billion bushels lower, and at 11.2 billion would be a six-year low. The biggest reduction is for feed and residual disappearance, projected down 725 million bushels. Feed grain supplies will be 2.2 billion bushels lower than earlier projections, as livestock producers reduce their herds due to higher feed costs.

Ukraine may decrease corn planting, increase barley in 2012

Ukraine may decrease corn plantings in 2012 and grow more barley, according to agricultural researcher ProAgro.
A large current supply of corn, which has led to lower prices, may push farmers to look to other crops. “I am more than confident that corn planting will decline,” said Nikolay Vernitsky, director of ProAgro. “Corn supply is big now and prices are not very attractive.” Barley plantings may be increased in the spring, said Vernitsky, when farmers choose their crops based on the condition of winter grain plants and how exports and prices for corn develop.
Ukraine’s winter grains sprouted on 5.7 million hectares, 71% of planted areas, according to Agriculture Ministry data. Winter grains may be lost on more than 2 million hectares, according to the data. 

England wheat production down, but better than predicted

England's wheat harvest has not been as bad as first feared, despite the extremely dry weather, according to results of an NFU members’ survey.
Preliminary results from the NFU’s 2011 harvest survey have revealed yields are below average despite a cropping area up around 3% to 1.822 million hectares. English wheat production for the current year is estimated at around 13.636 million metric tons, down on the five-year average by 1.5%. “I believe this year’s yield decrease was largely due to tough growing conditions last spring, including one of the lowest ever rainfall levels recorded for the first half of the year across the majority of England," said NFU combinable crops chairman Ian Backhouse. “Despite higher plantings, production this year is expected to be lower compared to last year due to lower yields. Production will be down on the five-year average by around 189,000 metric tons."
Survey responses have pointed to a large variability in yields often linked to soil type and capacity to hold water where a fortunate few benefited from showers of rain this spring. Where sufficient rain fell in June and July onto later maturing crops, yields have been exceptional. However, towards the latter part of harvest there was more variability in quality, with summer rains preventing many farmers keeping up with ripening crops. Fortunately, much of the quality milling crop was already harvested and dried before exposure to prolonged rainfall.
Many farmers invested in drying to preserve grain quality, and the Home Grown Cereals Authority reported that wheat quality is very good this year, with a higher proportion expected to achieve full milling specification than for a number of years. Farmers are reporting crops weighing heavier and high bushel weights that are partly compensating for lower volume harvested. “Following a very dry spring and rains disrupting summer harvest in 2011, farmers invested in grain drying to protect quality and overcame a challenging season,” said Backhouse. 

Global feed crops production down while prices, demand continue to rise

World output of crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat is expected to drop 2.1% due to droughts in parts of Europe and excessive rains in the U.S., Canada and Australia, according to analysts.
The decrease in output coupled with a rise in demand is causing prices to rise significantly. The price of corn, for example, jumped 89% in the last year, reaching a 30-month high on Feb. 7. Soybeans are up 54% from a year ago and wheat has hit its highest price since August 2008. "There is not one crop you can point to that is without supply problems," said Steve Nicholson, a commodity procurement specialist for International Food Products Corp. "Production is not keeping up with demand, exacerbating the global food crisis."
The global production of corn, soybeans and wheat is forecast at 1.717 billion metric tons, down from 1.755 billion metric tons in 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The forecast for U.S. corn reserves will likely be adjusted down 2.1% to 729 million bushels, the lowest since 1995 and down 57% from a year earlier. World corn inventories may be cut to 125.4 million tons prior to the Northern Hemisphere harvests, the lowest number since 2007.

El Nino drought hits Central American crops

A drought caused by El Nino has hurt agricultural production in much of Central America, according to NotiCen. Southeastern Guatemala appears to be the worst affected, since it came into the season with a rainfall deficit. The corn and bean harvests in October and November 2009 were far below average, leading to acute malnutrition in more than 10% of women and children.
Honduras has issues a drought warning for its entire southern half into June, while thousands of farmers in northern Nicaragua have lost crops. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reporting February crop losses of more than 50% in 23 Nicaraguan municipalities.

Corn, soybean prices edge up

According to reports, U.S. corn and soybeans prices are up, with concerns that above average rainfall will impact yield in the four states that are the biggest growers of the crops.
Continued rainfall has been predicted in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Indiana from November 21-25, as reported by U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
Corn to be delivered in March added 0.9% a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade in after-hours electronic trading. January delivered soybeans were up as much a 1.4%. Some analysts and traders believe crop prices will continue to rise as the USDA yield forecast is reduced.

Philippines increases agricultural production

Reports say the Philippines saw an increase of 1.5% in agricultural production for the first nine months of the year over last year.
The Department of Agriculture said rough rice production increased 2.9% and corn jumped 0.8% over last year. Hog production also saw a 2% growth.
The growth is predicted to slow for the remainder of the year given the storm damage to crops.

USDA updates crop forecast

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate reports lowered corn harvest by 1.3 bushels per acre and adjusted prices for both this commodity and soybeans to reflect domestic and export demand for October 2009. The latest values for the U.S. 2009-10 season are shown in this table.
The values should, however, be interpreted in the light of prolonged unseasonable rains during late October and early November that have impeded harvest in many parts of the Midwest and Southeast. Delays in harvest have resulted in yield loses for soybeans.
The rainfall from Hurricane Ida has apparently destroyed 40% of the soybean crop in Mississippi. The quality of the 2009 corn crop is now in question, as high moisture content will result in low bushel weight from Diplodia and possible mycotoxin contamination.
The delays in harvesting have resulted in firming of prices with CBOT corn futures up 15% and soybeans by 8% since October 1. As of November 15, the USDA estimates 54% of corn (77% in 2008) and 89% of soybeans (95% in 2008) has been harvested.
According to industry observers, the actual harvest will not be known until early January 2010. In the interim there will be uncertainty as to volume and quality complicated by activity in the export market resulting in price fluctuations.

Australia readies for strong winter crop

Australia, a large exporter of wheat, is expecting a bountiful winter crop of wheat, barley and canola given the recent rain, according to reports. Parts of the country have received more than half an inch to nearly two inches of precipitation.
September rains are key for Australian farmers to boost the fall harvest, which may total as much as 36 million metric tons.