EU pig production and income predictions for 2012-2020

The contraction in the pig herd in 2011 compared to 2010 (-1.7 percent), and more markedly in breeding sows (-3.2 percent), generates a marginal decline in EU pig meat production in 2012 (-0.4 percent), according to a recent study “Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU 2012-2022.”
In 2013, the decrease is expected to be even larger (-3.2 percent), as it will cumulate with the impact of mandatory welfare standards coming into force as of January 2013 and of higher feed costs incurred due to the United States drought.
After its fall in 2012 and 2013, pig meat production is projected to resume its growth from the second half of 2014, as production is expected to respond to high prices, with farmers progressively adjusting to the new welfare requirements. By 2022 pig meat production would roughly settle at the level of 2011, i.e. approximately 23 million tons.

Feed prices, inventory
Increased feed prices as a result of the drought in the US during the first half of 2012 were compensated by high pig meat prices which led to stable pig producers' margins. After reaching the historical high of 1 900 EUR/t in September 2012 (31 percent more than the 2007-2011 average), prices fell slightly in October (-0.5 percent against the previous month). Piglet prices have so far followed the seasonal trend and are situated around 470 EUR/t.
As regards trade, January-August 2012 data confirm stronger EU exports, 5 percent higher than the same period last year, mainly due to the weak Euro and the strong global demand, particularly from China, Russia, Ukraine and Japan. Overall, 2012 is projected to end with an estimated 1% increase in exports compared to the already very high level registered in 2011.
Lower availabilities in 2013 would trigger a projected decline of 15 percent in EU exports, followed by a rebound in 2014, when production is expected to recover; this trend would be of short duration as exports would then start decreasing again (-9 percent on aggregate over 2011-2022).

Pig meat consumption
Overall EU pig meat consumption is expected to increase by 4.3 percent (+3 percent and +10 percent in the EU-15 and EU-N12 respectively). Although EU per capita consumption would decrease by 1.6 percent between 2011 and 2022, pig meat would continue to represent half of EU total meat consumption. It is worth observing that, at world level, poultry meat would represent the most consumed meat overtaking pig meat (on average 14.5 kg/capita versus 12.7 kg/capita).
The EU is more than self-sufficient in pig meat, producing about 110 percent of its domestic consumption and this trend is expected to continue throughout the outlook period. However, increased competition from other producing countries (for example, China) would see the EU production share in global production slowly decline.
This medium term outlook provides a projection for major EU agricultural commodity markets and agricultural income until the year 2022, based on a set of coherent assumptions. Under these assumptions agricultural commodity prices are expected to stay firm over the medium term, supported by factors such as the growth in global food demand, the development of the biofuel sector and a prolongation of the long term decline in food crop productivity growth.

Scotland red meat industry makes £2.1 billion in 2011

Scotland's red meat industry contributed £2.1 billion (US$3.3 billion) to the country's economy in 2011, according to Quality Meat Scotland's Scottish Meat Industry Profile, a 10 percent increase over 2010 numbers.
While beef and lamb producers benefitted from stronger prices, pig farmers saw production costs rise more than their returns and processors felt increased pressure on their margins, said the report. It may be another year before increased confidence is reflected in breeding stock populations, according to Stuart Ashworth, head of Quality Meat Scotland's economic services. There was further consolidation in the pig sector in 2011 where, although prices improved over 2010, they still averaged below 2009 levels and input costs remained high. The sow herd contracted sharply and returned to its downward trend of the past decade, declining by nearly 14 percent to 32,200 head.
“In the throes of a weak economy, generally the processing sector struggled to pass on the increased cost of sourcing livestock," said Ashworth. "While strong demand for beef and pork facilitated an upwards movement in retail prices during the summer months, consumption fell back towards the end of the year as prices were perceived by many consumers to have reached prohibitive levels.
“However, on the upside, the export trade was buoyant and presented some new opportunities to achieve improved carcass balance, while input costs began to ease towards the end of the year."

McDonald's to phase out pig meat from gestation stalls

McDonald's has announced that by 2022 it will no longer by pig meat from any supplier that uses gestation stalls for pregnant sows, following up on its February announcement that its suppliers must begin to phase out the stalls' use.
Within five years, McDonald's will only buy pig meat from suppliers who have committed to phasing out sow stalls' use, and those suppliers will have another five years to make good on that commitment, according to the company. "We value our relationship with our suppliers and our shared commitment to animal welfare," said Dan Gorsky, senior vice president of McDonald's North America Supply Chain Management. "Our approach seeks to build on the work already in place, and we are also sensitive to the needs of the smaller, independent pork producers in phasing out of gestation stalls."
According to McDonald's, it purchases about 1 percent of the total pig meat produced in the U.S.

US swine production, exports to increase in 2013

In 2013, moderate increases in farrowings and continued strong productivity gains are expected to yield an annual U.S. pig meat production level that is about 2.3 percent above 2012 numbers, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report.
Commercial pig meat production is expected to be 23.8 billion pounds. Higher estimates for average dressed weights as a result of lower feed costs contribute to the higher production forecast, according to the USDA. Hog prices in 2013 are expected to be $57–$61 per cwt, about 2.7 percent below 2012 numbers.
Foreign demand for U.S. pig meat products will continue to be an important market focus in 2013. Lower U.S. pig meat prices, together with continued global economic growth will, in all likelihood, support continued strong exports. Next year the USDA anticipates that 22.7 percent of commercial pig meat production will be exported, versus almost 23 percent in 2012. Total U.S. pig meat exports for 2013 are forecast at 5.4 billion pounds, about unchanged from expected 2012 numbers.
As is almost always the case, over two-thirds of U.S. exports in 2013 are expected to go to U.S. North American Free Trade Agreement partners, Canada and Mexico, and to Japan. Japan is expected to remain the number one foreign destination for U.S. pig meat exports in 2013.

Pig meat producer Danish Crown to close slaughterhouse

The pig meat producer committee at international food producer Danish Crown has recommended that its slaughterhouse in Esbjerg, Denmark be closed at the end of August this year.
At the same time, Danish Crown said it plans to invest in building up capacity at some of its other facilities in Denmark to ensure optimum capacity utilization. “We have seen a slight decline in the supply of pigs for slaughter to our Danish abattoirs and we are reacting accordingly," said the company’s production director Søren F. Eriksen. "Making difficult decisions such as this is part of being financially responsible. We monitor developments in the competitive situation on the global market closely, and if we are to retain slaughterhouse jobs in Denmark, where production costs are far higher than in our neighboring countries, we must ensure that our capacity is tailored accordingly and that we are continually optimizing and streamlining production."
The supply of pigs for slaughter has fallen by a few percent, so concurrently with the closure investments in capacity are being made at a number of other Danish Crown departments in Denmark, according to Eriksen.

Pig industry must address capacity, relationships to meet demand

The international pig industry will be able to meet the global food demands of the growing population over the next 28 years and beyond, but it must address the issue of slaughtering capacity and look to transforming relationships between pig meat suppliers and retailers, according to former Pig International editor and respected industry observer Peter Best.
Best presented the Royal Agricultural College 100 Club's annual fellowship in pig research report, "Is the pig industry capable of meeting global food demands 2020/2030." He said world pig meat demand could grow by nearly 50 million metric tons in the next two decades, and international agencies see pig meat accounting for almost 155 metric tons of the 410 million metric tons of all meats required worldwide by 2030. Right now, three quarters of pig meat consumed worldwide is produced in China, Europe and the U.S.
“They are the top consumers and also the largest producers; each of them is virtually self-sufficient, or even a net exporter," said Best. "By 2020, the combined pig meat output of the Big Three could reach 100 million metric tons for the first time. “For the global pig industry to produce another 50 million metric tons by 2030 is achievable when judged entirely on technical considerations at pig-unit level, given the industry’s resources of genetics, feeds and management."
Best said he discovered "real optimism" in the pig industry, which he believes is more than ready to face up to the challenges of the future, but for world production to progress substantially, national pig industries that still include a large backyard portion must find a way of replacing those animal number quickly as the backyard disappear. Insufficient slaughter capacity could slow the rate at which pig production expands and will depress prices, he said. In addition, the relationship between pig meat suppliers and food retailers could be transformed as both segments consolidate and integrate, with producers and processors taking control of the retailing of their pig meat.
Overall, Best said the pig industry must strengthen its voice so that it can be heard at the highest levels when new international regulations or initiatives are discussed and, more locally, whenever there is an opportunity for constructive dialogue with consumers.
Full copies of the report (£20 including postage and packaging) are available from info@rac100club.com. 

China meat sales gain new avenue through online marketing

With life getting faster and online shopping boosting in recent years, China's meat products have gained new opportunities for sales through non-traditional avenues like the Internet, according to reports, and many Chinese companies are taking advantage of this new marketing mode.
Hunan New Wellful Co. Ltd. launched a new series of cold and fresh meat products at the end of 2009 for which telephone and online orders, as well as cold chain home delivery, were accepted. At the end of 2011, Yurun Group promoted its pig meat products at Taobao.com, the biggest E-commerce platform in China, allowing group purchase at a lower price. In March 2012 the company offered cold and fresh meat coupon at Taobao Mall (a branch of Taobao.com) and began an online-to-offline marketing mode, which means customers can pay for the meat online, buy it offline and enjoy after-sale service offline.
As the consumption structure of meat is changing, sales channels will vary accordingly in the future, say the companies.

US pig breeding inventory, litter rate up first quarter 2012

The March 1 U.S. inventory of breeding pigs came in at 5.82 million head, 0.55 percent greater than 2011 numbers and the fifth consecutive quarterly increase since March 2011, according to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The modest size of the increase may suggest the extent to which expansion optimism in the sector continues to be tempered by risks surrounding feed costs and prices, said the USDA. The report also showed that breeding herd productivity continues to climb. The litter rate for the December 2011–February 2012 quarter was measured at 9.97 pigs per litter, an increase of 1.73 percent over the same period in 2011. Although a bit smaller than the 2011/2010 increase (1.98 percent), the steady string of consecutive litter rate increases since 2003 suggest that producer adoption of innovations in genetics and nutrition, together with enhanced management skills in animal care, can boost hog sector productivity, according to the USDA.
The data is forecasting a 2.1 percent increase in commercial pig meat production for the second half of 2012. Part of this change in expected production is premised on assumptions of the higher second-half dressed weights that forecast lower feed costs will likely bring about. Total commercial pig meat production for 2012 is expected to be 23.3 billion pounds, an increase of 2.2 percent above 2011.

JSR Genetics uses imaging software to increase pig meat flavor

JSR Genetics is using new image analysis software, BioSoft ToolBox II, to analyze ultrasound scans from live animals in order to determine intra muscular fat levels, the trait that determined flavor, tenderness and succulence in pig meat, according to the company. This technology will allow for meat with more marbling without adding back fat, an ideal situation for producers.
The new scanner software, developed by Biotronics Inc. of Iowa in conjunction with Iowa State University, uses texture analysis technology enabling it to accurately measure intra muscular fat in the loin muscle of living animals. “In genetic terms, being able to scan live animals, and therefore actively select for IMF without excess back fat, is far quicker than having to wait until slaughter to score animals," said Dr. Grant Walling, JSR's managing director. "It means boars go into our AI studs with IMF measurement on both them and their relatives."
New applications for Biotronic’s software are also being investigated.  “Developments are already underway, for example, looking at how this IMF software can be integrated into the slaughterhouse line,” said Stephen Waite, JSR's head of science. “By quickly identifying specific levels of loin marbling in carcasses, the scanner will enable carcasses to be directed towards high meat eating quality lines. That way both processors and producers will benefit from the sale of higher quality pigs.”

Pig meat most consumed red meat in UK

Pig meat, including pork, bacon, sausages and ham, is the most consumed red meat in the UK out-of-home market with 68.7 percent of all red meat servings, according to new figures from NPD Group/Crest.
Pig meat also experienced the greatest increase in servings in 2011 compared with 2010 numbers, according to the data. The figures show total pig meat servings increased by 8.1. In the main this growth was driven by bacon, which saw servings grow by 29.5 percent, and sausages, which grew by 21.3 percent. Ham has also moved up the charts, by 11.7 percent, and pork saw an increase of 4.6 percent.
“Quality-assured bacon is a fantastic ingredient for all types of menus," said British Pig Exchange foodservice trade manager Tony Goodger. "It’s hugely versatile and delivers a punch of flavor to dishes. Sausages made from quality-assured pork also continue to be one of the most popular foods eaten out of home, appealing to both adults and children alike. Both are relatively low-cost proteins and, in the current climate when every penny counts, chefs are clearly recognizing their profit potential."
The industry is starting to see more chefs buying whole pig carcasses and experimenting with a wider range of cuts due to the meat's cost-effectiveness, according to Goodger.

US pig meat production up 6 percent in February

U.S. pig meat production totaled 1.88 billion pounds, up 6 percent from 2011 numbers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report. The number was down from January, which came in at 1.99 billion pounds.
Hog slaughter totaled 9.04 million head, up 6 percent from February 2011, and the average live weight was up 1 pound, at 278 pounds. So far, Iowa has slaughtered the largest number of hogs, at 2.37 million head. North Carolina (942,900 head), Minnesota (878,000 head), Illinois (858,400 head) and Indiana (686,200 head) round out the top five producers.  
Overall, commercial meat production (which includes pig meat, beef, veal, lamb and mutton) came in at 3.91 billion pounds for February, up from February 2011's 3.81 billion pounds but down from January's 4.12 billion pounds. Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas make up the top three producing states, at 572.4 million pounds, 532.1 million pounds and 398.1 million pounds, respectively. 

Hog futures decline on waning demand for US pig meat

Hog futures have dropped for the fifth straight session, approaching the longest slump since October 2011, on decreased demand for U.S. pig meat, according to reports.
Wholesale pig meat fell to 82.29 cents per pound on March 19, the lowest since January 2011, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Stockpiles totaled 584.4 million pounds at the end of January, 8.5 percent more than the same time in 2011.
Hog futures for June dropped 0.7 percent to 92.775 cents per pound at 10:04 a.m. on March 20 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange — the last time prices posted a five-session slide was on Oct. 27, 2011.

US maintains solid pig meat demand in early March

Through early March, production and most price data suggest that solid pig meat demand continues, even in the face of increases in hog slaughter and pig meat production in January and February, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Solid domestic pig meat demand is further reflected in quarterly disappearance estimates. USDA supply forecasts for the first quarter of 2012 point to a 2-percent increase in total pig meat supply. Accounting for estimates of first-quarter exports and ending stocks leaves total domestic pig meat disappearance 1.4 percent ahead of the first quarter of 2011. So far in the first quarter of 2012, U.S. consumers appear to be paying more for larger quantities of pig meat. First-quarter per capita pig meat disappearance is forecast at 11.5 pounds per capita, 0.49 percent larger than in 2011.
As a counterbalance to higher hog prices and indications of continued strong domestic pig meat demand, USDA data shows that pig meat stocks are building ahead of 2011 levels and that wholesale values of most pig meat cuts have traded at below 2011 levels since late January. Stocks of pig meat at the end of January were 584 million pounds. While significantly higher than in December 2011, the year-over-year increase in total pig meat stocks was about the same as in January 2011.
The February wholesale value of the pig meat carcass — $84.44 per cwt — was almost 5 percent below 2011 numbers. However, good availability of pig meat cuts and relatively low prices are expected to attract buyers’ attention, given that both beef and broiler production and domestic disappearance are expected to be year-over-year lower for most of 2012.

Brasil Foods starts pig meat exports to China

Brasil Foods has sent its first shipment of pig meat to China, processed in the company’s Rio Verde plant, one of only three pig meat processing sites in Brazil permitted to export to the Asian country. The meat will be sold via the joint venture that was established by Brasil Foods with Chinese company Dah Chong Hong Ltd. The joint venture was set up to distribute products in the local market, process meat locally, develop the brand Sadia and act in the food service channels in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau. Currently, Brasil Foods is only allowed to export deboned pig meat to China; however, the company is working towards exporting meat on the bone.  

US pig meat production up in December 2011

U.S. pig meat production totaled 2.07 billion pounds in December 2011, up 1 percent from the same time in 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
Hog slaughter in December 2011 totaled 9.94 million head, up slightly from December 2010. The average live weight was up one pound from 2010, at 278 pounds. Numbers slaughtered in Iowa, the top state in December 2011, were up from 2.659 million head in December 2010 to 2.675 million head in December 2011. While numbers were down in the second-highest state, North Carolina (952,000 head in December 2011 compared to 1.01 million head in December 2010), they were up significantly in both Illinois (946,200 head compared to 832,500) and Minnesota (940,900 head compared to 926,300). Overall, 106.6 million head of hogs slaughtered in 2011 were barrows and gilts, 3.03 million head were sows and 329,000 head were boars — roughly 110 million total hogs.

Russia drops Brasil Foods, Marfrig pig meat import bans

Russia has dropped its ban on pig meat imports from three Brazilian plants owned by Brasil Foods and Marfrig Alimentos SA, according to reports. Brasil Foods' pork and poultry plants in Rio Verde and Uberlandia, and a Marfrig pork plant in Amparo, can resume exports to Russia, said the Russian sanitary authority.

China food processor begins production at pig meat facilities

China meat and food processor Zhongpin Inc. has begun trial production at its two newest child and frozen pig meat product plants, in Jiangsu and Jilin provinces, according to company reports. Phase 1 of the Jiangsu plant involves an annual production capacity of roughly 80,000 metric tons for chilled and easy-to-cook pork products and 20,000 metric tons for frozen pork. It includes a production facility, warehouse and distribution center. Phase 2, a production facility for prepared pork products with an annual capacity of 30,000 metric tons, is expected to open in the third quarter of 2012. Jilin's Phase 1 plant has an annual production capacity of 70,000 metric tons for chilled pork and 25,000 metric tons for frozen pork. It includes a slaughtering and processing plant, a low-temperature prepared pork plant, a logistics center and a research and development center. Phase 2 will include an annual production capacity of 30,000 metric tons of prepared pork products and a second research and development center, expected to open in the third quarter of 2012. "With our two newest plants for chilled and frozen pork opening, we have increased our annual capacity for chilled and frozen pork by 29.3% and our total annual production capacity for all products by 26.4%," said Xianfu Zhu, chairman and CEO of Zhongpin.

Russia approves pig meat import quotas for 2012

Russia has approved its import quotas for pig meat and other meat for 2012, including allotments set for the U.S. and European Union, according to a government report. Limits have been set at 400,000 metric tons for pork and 30,000 metric tons for pork trimmings. Chilled beef imports have been set at 30,000 metric tons, of which 29,000 metric tons have been allotted to the EU. Frozen beef is fixed at 530,000 metric tons, with the EU and U.S. allocated 60,000 metric tons each, according to the report.

China to import 1.4 million tons pig meat in 2012

China will import an estimated 1.4 million tons of pig meat in 2012, according to the latest Rabobank report, up from a projected 1.1 million tons in 2011. In the first nine months of 2011, China imported 870,000 tons of pork – the 1.1-million-ton estimate is equal to 2% of nationwide pork consumption in 2010, according to Wang Jimin, a professor from the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science.  Outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome have reduced China's swine supply in recent years, and since 2007 China's pork imports have increased dramatically. Pork import volume in 2007 was 47,300 tons, up 115% from 2006, while remaining stable at 20,000 tons to 30,000 tons between 2000 and 2006. 2008 saw an increase of 93%, followed by a decline in 2009, and 2010 saw a 70.8% increase from 2009.

Philippines may begin pig meat exports to Malaysia in 2012

The Philippines may begin exporting pig meat to Malaysia in early 2012, pending the approval of a triple A slaughterhouse facility by Malaysian regulators, according to agriculture officials.
The owners of the slaughterhouse filed for accreditation in October, and a team from Malaysia's Department of Veterinary Services must visit the facility before it can give the approval to begin shipments. “Our target is to start shipping 100 tons of pork per month there,” said Jane C. Bacayo, executive director of the Philippines' National Meat Inspection Service. "[Malaysia's] requirement is 1,000 heads per day." According to Bacayo, Malaysia wants to buy pork from the Philippines so they will have an available supply for tourists.
In December 2009, the Philippines voluntarily suspended a shipment of pork to Singapore after detecting the Ebola Reston virus in a farm in Luzon. In May, the country received certification from the World Organization for Animal Health that it was completely free of foot-and-mouth disease without the need for vaccination.
The Philippines also has plans for expansion, and has earmarked P180 million (US$4.16 million) for the construction of five triple A slaughterhouses in 2012.