IGC: World grain stocks to end season at 30-year high

The International Grains Council (IGC) expects world grain stocks to hit their highest level in some 30 years, deviating from an earlier forecast of a drop in world grains output for the year.
The upgraded inventory figure represents a gain of 30 million metric tons year-on-year, and the most since the mid-1980s, the council said.
The raised forecast for global grain inventories, comprising of stocks of wheat and coarse grains, reflected an upgrade of 12 million metric tons to 2.002 billion metric tons. The largest factor in the changed forecast was due to an upgrade to a record high in its corn harvest estimate, Agrimoney reported.
The estimate for world corn output in 2014-15 was hiked by 10 million metric tons to 992 million metric tons, which would make it the largest harvest on record. The IGC highlighted "bigger-than-previously-forecast corn crops in Argentina, Brazil, the European Union and Ukraine."


IGC, USDA figures differ
The revised IGC data for corn in slightly shows a divergence on estimates for world corn inventories between the IGC and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The USDA's estimate for corn stocks is, at 189.2 million metric tons, approximately 3 million metric tons lower than the IGC estimate.
USDA and IGC agree on wheat inventories, with both anticipating a harvest reaching 196 million metric tons.
On soybeans, the IGC’s year-end stocks were projected at 42 million metric tons, significantly less upbeat than the USDA, which sees inventories finishing the season at 90.8 million metric tons.

Global grain production to hit record 2.4 billion tons

Global grain production is expected to hit a record 2.4 billion tons in 2012, up 1 percent from 2011 numbers, according to a new report from the Worldwatch Institute's Nourishing the Planet project.
Grain production for animal feed is growing the fastest, a 2.1 percent increase from 2011, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Grain for direct human consumption grew 1.1 percent. In 2011, the amount of grain used for food totaled 571 million tons, with India consuming 89 million tons, China 87 million tons and the U.S. 28 million tons, according to the International Grains Council.
U.S. corn yields are expected to decrease 13 percent from 2011 numbers due to the worst drought in 50 years, to 274.3 million tons, but global production will still be up 4.1 percent, to 916 million tons in 2012, according to the FAO. Global rice production hit an all-time high of 480 million tons in 2011, a 2.6 percent increase from 2010 numbers. Wheat production, however, is projected to drop to 675.1 million tons in 2012, down 3.6 percent from 2011, according to the report.
"The relationship between food security, grain production and climate change is especially important in 2012," said report co-author Danielle Nierenberg, a Worldwatch senior researcher and Nourishing the Planet project director. "The recent drought affecting the United States and the rest of the world show the need to reduce price volatility, move away from fossil fuel-based agriculture and recognize the importance of women farmers to increase resilience to climate change."

Global coarse grain production up for 2012-2013

Global coarse grain production in 2012–2013 has been projected up 3.6 million tons in June to 1.23 billion tons, mostly based on increased area prospects in some countries, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest international outlook. World corn production has been increased 4.2 million tons to 949.9 million tons, but barley has been cut 0.7 million tons to 134.7 million tons.
The 2012–2013 corn area forecast for China has been raised 300,000 hectares to 34.3 million hectares as net returns per hectare for corn continue to be more favorable compared with soybeans (soybean area is also forecast lower by 300,000 hectares). This 2 million-ton increase brings China’s total corn production in 2012–2013 to a record 195 million tons, according to the USDA.
EU 2012–2013 corn production has been increased 1.1 million tons in June to 64.2 million tons, based mostly on increased area reported for Hungary and Poland. Dryness and cold winter temperatures hurt some winter rapeseed and wheat, causing winter-kill that has increased area sown to spring-planted crops. EU barley prospects are nearly the same as predicted in May as a significant area-based increase for Germany, and smaller increases for Poland, Hungary and Italy have been offset by a significant reduction for Spain and a small decline for Bulgaria, countries where reduced area and yield are confirmed by preliminary harvest reports.
Russia’s corn production has been raised 0.8 million tons to a record 7.8 million as planting reports indicate producers have sown more than 100 percent of planting intentions. The 2011–2012 corn crop was profitable compared to most other crops, and this year, area is forecast up 23 percent. Russia’s barley area has also been raised, but winter barley yields have come in below expectations, offsetting the area increase. Sowing progress reports from Belarus indicate a sharp increase in corn plantings, boosting production prospects 0.3 million tons to a record 1.3 million. 

International Grains Council predicts strong production

The latest market report from the International Grains Council estimates that world grains production in the 2009–2010 crop year will total 1.768 billion metric tons, thanks to strong production of wheat, corn and barley in North America and the Russia-Eastern Europe region. This would be 25 million metric tons below last year’s record. Total consumption is projected at 1.744 billion metric tons.
According to the council, the output of wheat will total 674 million metric tons, compared with 686 million tons last year. The forecast global consumption of 642 million metric tons would be only 3 million metric tons more than in 2008–2009. The world wheat harvest in 2010 is expected to come from 221 million hectares, down 1% from 2009, but the upward trend in yield per hectare should still give the current calendar year the third-largest crop on record at 653 million metric tons.
The International Grains Council’s corn production forecast for 2009–2010 has been raised to 791 million metric tons, matching last year's total, although it says that some doubts remain about quality. Uptake for all uses is put at 803 million tons. The use of corn for animal feeds is predicted to rise by 1.5%.