US winter wheat worst quality in 17 years

Some of the first wheat harvested by U.S. farmers in 2015 is the worst in at least 17 years, according to U.S. Wheat Associates.
Heavy rainfall across parts of the Midwest is partially to blame for the poor conditions.
“It was the worst crop we’ve ever had because of the rain,” Kim Holsapple, grain manager for Total Grain Marketing in Effingham, Illinois, which operates about 30 elevators in the state, said in a report. “The wheat we’re getting in now is just nothing but feed quality.”
Farmers will produce 393 million bushels of the soft-red winter variety of wheat this year, down 14 percent from 2014, according to government forecasts.
Heavy rains – about three times the normal amount – across parts of the eastern U.S. and Mississippi River region have prolonged harvests and increased sprout and mold damage.
Farmers are getting discounts of up to $3 per bushel for wheat with quality problems. The soft-red winter wheat is usually used for flour milling for products like cookies and crackers. However, because of the poor quality, much of the grain will be used for animal feed.
In wet weather, there is a higher chance of vomitoxin fungus to develop.

Peruvian wheat buyers to learn about US wheat marketing

Peru is one the few countries in South America that purchases almost all classes of U.S. wheat, which is one reason why three Peruvian wheat buyers are visiting the United States July 19 to 25. They are connecting with U.S. grain traders to learn more about the advantages of the U.S. wheat marketing system. The team’s visit focuses specifically on hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW) production in Maryland, Virginia, Colorado and Kansas. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) worked with the Maryland Grain Producers Utilization Board (MGPUB), the Virginia Small Grains Board, the Colorado Wheat Commission and the Kansas Wheat Commission to organize this team.
“Our goal for this trade team is to encourage the practice of blending different wheat classes or protein levels to minimize input costs, so we can compete better with wheat from other sources,” said USW South American Regional Vice President Alvaro de la Fuente, who is traveling with the team. “On this tour, they have the opportunity to see the quality of the new U.S. wheat crop and how its versatility can meet their multiple end-use needs.”
Peru produces an average of 240,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat per year, most of which is a soft variety that is not properly suited for baking, meaning only an average of 10,000 MT of their wheat is purchased by the milling industry. In 2014, U.S. wheat represented 20.9 percent of Peru’s total wheat imports with 1.95 million metric tons (MMT) led by HRW (193,000 MT) and SRW (139,000 MT). The team members represent Peru’s major wheat importing groups, accounting for more than 40 percent of the country’s annual wheat purchases and are directly responsible for evaluating and importing wheat for their companies.
The trip began with a visit to the USW Headquarters Office in Arlington, Virginia, for a briefing with President Alan Tracy and Vice President of Overseas Operations Vince Peterson. They also visited USW Vice Chairman and MGPUB Commissioner Jason Scott at his farm in Hurlock, Maryland, and toured Perdue’s export grain terminal and Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) office in Norfolk, Virginia. The team then traveled to Colorado and Kansas for visits to Ardent Mills, a Cargill-Byers unit train loading facility, Progressive Farms, Best Harvest Bakery, CHS and the FGIS Technical Center, as well as a meeting with Louis Dreyfus. Throughout the tour the hosting state wheat commissions will provide their state’s crop quality outlook.
USW is the industry’s market development organization working in more than 100 countries. Its mission is to “develop, maintain, and expand international markets to enhance the profitability of U.S. wheat producers and their customers.” USW activities are made possible through producer checkoff dollars managed by 19 state wheat commissions and cost-share funding provided by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. USW maintains 17 offices strategically located around the world to help wheat buyers, millers, bakers, wheat food processors and government officials understand the quality, value and reliability of all six classes of U.S. wheat.

India unlikely to import more wheat

India is unlikely to import more wheat in the coming weeks, according to a report, as global prices surge and concerns about a potential 10 percent import duty grow.
In June, India’s government said it was considering imposing a 10 percent import duty on wheat to curb shipments and liquidate poor-quality grains. Before the import duty would be imposed, the concerned ministry and departments must be consulted. If the duty is approved, it will help the domestic industry, which has been facing challenges associated with the excess stocks.
Despite surplus stocks, Indian flour millers and global trading companies closed deals to import 500,000 tons of Australian wheat since March. This is the biggest amount in more than a decade, despite surplus stocks in India. The imports were made because of damage to high-protein wheat crops after unseasonal rains and hailstorms this year in wheat-growing states Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra.
Wheat production in India, the world’s second-biggest grower, is estimated to have declined to 90.78 million tons in 2014-15, compared with the record production of 95.85 million tons in 2013-14.

India closes biggest wheat import deals in a decade

Indian flour millers and global trading companies have closed deals to import 500,000 tons of Australian wheat since March, according to a report. This is the biggest amount in more than a decade, despite surplus stocks in India.
Millers first placed the orders in India’s southern ports over concerns that February and March rains could cut wheat output, especially the high-protein varieties used to make pizzas and pasta. Attractive prices -- $255 to $275 per ton -- then prompted Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Glencore to follow.
Indian traders and millers could import another 500,000 tons from France and Russia, pushing up benchmark prices that have risen recently on concerns over crop quality in the U.S. On a free-on-board basis, French and Russian wheat is priced between $185 and $190 per ton.
High-protein wheat in India costs more than $300 per ton, and imports could slow if prices drop below $285.
India, the world’s second-largest producer and consumer of wheat, has large stockpiles of the grain after eight consecutive years of bumper harvests. This year’s wheat output for India is estimated at about 90 million tons, which is 5 percent lower than in 2014, but still exceeding domestic demand of 72 million tons.

Food Corporation of India to sell wheat in open market

State-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) has decided to sell wheat to bulk customers in June in Punjab and Haryana, and in July in other states such as Madhya Pradesh.
The move was made to liquidate surplus stocks and improve supply in the open market, according to a report.
Starting April 1, FCI began offloading wheat under the open market sale scheme (OMSS) to non-wheat-producing states.
A government official said FCI has only been able to sell 400 tons of wheat to non-wheat-growing states as of May 28.
“In major wheat surplus states -- Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh -- FCI will ensure conduct of weekly e-auctions for sale of wheat," the official said.
"Besides continuing sale of wheat in non-wheat-producing states, FCI will take action to liquidate surplus stock of wheat from its depots located in Punjab and Haryana during the period of June 2015 to March 2016," the Food Ministry said.
As of May 1, FCI had stocks of 34.1 million tons of wheat. The requirement is 21 million tons.
In 2014-15, FCI sold 4.5 million tons of wheat vs. the target of 10 million tons. In 2013-14, it sold 6.1 million tons.
India is the world’s second-biggest producer of wheat.

French silo operator Senalia suspends wheat deliveries

French silo operator Senalia said it would stop taking wheat deliveries beginning the week of May 4 until further notice because of lack of demand, according to a report.
Senalia, the main silo operator at the port of Rouen in northern France and one of the delivery silos for Euronext’s milling wheat futures, said the suspension is due to a decrease in milling wheat loading requests. The company noted that there was a strong demand for delivery.
Shipments have significantly decreased after heavy volumes were recorded in April, with only two cargoes of wheat loading at the port on April 30.
Senalia took similar measures in September 2014 due to a weak export outlook linked to a poor-quality crop. That was followed by Socomac, the other delivery point for the Euronext wheat market.

Rains expected to cut short India’s wheat production

India Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said the country’s wheat production is expected to fall 4-5 percent short of the estimated 95.76 million tons, due to unseasonal rains that hit the crop when it was ready to harvest.
Estimates say 11.3 million hectares (xx acres) of rabi, or winter, wheat crop was damaged in recent days. The total rabi acreage is estimated at 60 million acres.
Analysts say the drop in production is unlikely to affect the price of wheat and wheat products because of the large stocks left from the previous year.
"We have a carryover stock of 18 million tonnes from the previous year ... With such huge stock, prices are expected to be stable,” said analyst Tejinder Narang.
India produced 95.85 million tons of wheat in 2013-14.
Singh has asked states to utilize the State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF) for financial assistance for farmers affected by the rains. An informal group of ministers has been set up to examine the possibility of raising the cap on financial assistance provided to farmers under such circumstances.
"The Centre is ready to give additional funds to states once they utilize those available with them under SDRF. A central team has already visited seven states to assess the crop loss," Singh said.
The worst damage has been reported in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. 

Asia’s growing middle class boosts wheat demand

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  freeimages.com

  Asia’s growing middle class, and its changing tastes and diets, is increasing demand for grains, especially wheat.

  From WATTAgNet:
  Asia’s growing middle class, and its changing tastes and diets, is increasing demand for grains, especially wheat, marking a boon for Australia and the United States.
  The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says that, by 2030, two-thirds of the global middle class, or 3.3 billion people, will be living in Asia, with China accounting for the largest share from just 1.8 billion now.
  Higher incomes throughout Asia mean more people can veer from traditional food choices, such as rice, and as wheat demand increases, rice demand appears to be flattening.
  “You have a growing middle class population with high disposable income [driving] the demand for grain-based food products, more red meat protein and dairy products growth," said Greg Harvey, managing director of Singapore-based flour miller, Interflour Group. "The middle class in Asia estimated to grow six times over the next 20 years and Africa, Middle East is to grow one and half to two times over the next 20 years.”
  In the Asian milled flour market, bread is the fastest-growing segment, followed by pasta. Feed grain sales to China are increasing for the meat industry. Also in China, more coarse grain imports are targeting the rise in demand for malting barley for beer production.

India wheat production expected to break record

India’s wheat production is expected to beat the 2013-14 record of 95.85 million tons, Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain said.
“My own assessment is that wheat production this year is going to be very good, may be more than last year,” he said.
India is the world’s second largest wheat grower, and if low temperatures continue and there are no more rains this month, productivity will soar, despite reports of damage in some areas.
Wheat crops in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan and West Bengal were damaged during recent unseasonal rains.
Indian Agricultural Research Institute Joint Director of Research D.V. Prabhu agreed with the crop projections, saying, “The recent rains have rather been beneficial to wheat crop. We expect wheat production to be a record 97-98 million tons. Total production could even touch 100 million tons if good weather prevails till harvesting.”
Hussain said the Indian government also is focusing on raising the productivity of pulses and oilseeds. He called upon farm scientists to develop varieties to achieve self-sufficiency in production of pulses and oilseeds.
Hussain also said the government would set up a common national market to ensure better prices for farmers, and allow farmers to sell their produce anywhere in the country.

Nutriad Mycotoxin Survey: Poland’s wheat crop unsafe for feed

Nutriad conducted its Mycotoxin Survey on 78 samples of wheat from all over Poland, and concluded that the country’s crop should not be considered safe for inclusion into finished feed.
More than 460 analyses were conducted to test for the occurrence of the six mycotoxins most frequently found in agricultural commodities intended for animal production. The survey provides an insight into the incidences of aflatoxins (Afla), zearalenone (ZEN), deoxynivalenol (DON), T-2 toxin, fumonisin B1 (FB1) and ochratoxin A (OTA) across all regions of Poland. All analyzed samples were wheat. All samples were collected almost immediately after the harvest and the probability that some storage mycotoxins will have developed (OTA) was low. Wheat samples were sampled directly from farms or animal feed production sites.
The Nutriad wheat mycotoxin survey concludes that this year’s harvest of wheat in Poland is of medium quality in terms of mycotoxin contamination.
Based on the results of this survey conducted immediately after the 2014 harvest Nutriad CEO Erik Visser indicates: “This year’s wheat crop in Poland should not be considered safe for inclusion into finished feed rations for all animal species. According to our experts, special attention should be paid to contamination of wheat by DON and ZEN and appropriate measures taken to mitigate against the effects of their presence in animal feeds.”
All six mycotoxins were analyzed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC MS/MS). For the purpose of data analysis, non-detection levels were based on the limits of quantification (LOQ) of the test method for each mycotoxin: AfB1 < 0.5 μg/kg; ZEN < 10 μg/kg; DON < 75 μg/kg; FB1 < 125 μg/kg; OTA < 1 μg/kg and T-2 toxin < 4 μg/kg.
The results show that 62 percent of wheat samples were contaminated with DON and none of the samples contained AfB1 and fumonisin B1. Only 3 percent of samples contained OTA but this result was expected as it is well known that OTA is a typical storage mycotoxin. The average concentrations of all recovered mycotoxins were medium while the highest concentration of DON found in one of the samples reached 2500 μg/kg. Although 8 percent of the samples contained T-2 toxin, a mycotoxin extremely toxic for poultry, its maximum concentration reached only 33 μg/kg and this level is negligible. Of more interest was contamination by zearalenone; only 10 percent of samples were contaminated but the highest analyzed concentration was 250 μg/kg. The average ZEN contamination was 94 μg/kg and this level can be considered low for most animal species.

Air pollution found to affect wheat, rice yields in India

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  From WATTAgNet:
  A new research paper, “Recent Climate and Air Pollution Impacts on Indian Agriculture” has found that air pollution in India is affecting the productivity of wheat crops. The pollution has been found to reduce the crop’s yields by almost half.
  Two air pollutants, black carbon and ground-level ozone, are believed to be the main culprits in decreasing wheat yields. The paper said up to 90 percent of losses were due to the effects of short-lived climate pollutants like smog. It said tropospheric ozone and black carbon have direct effects on crop yields beyond their indirect effects through climate.
  "Emissions of black carbon and ozone precursors have risen dramatically in India over the past three decades," the paper said.
  The research paper analyzed yields of wheat and rice crops for 30 years, and found that air pollution caused wheat yields in densely populated areas to be 50 percent lower than 2010. Scientists examined historical data on crop yields, emissions and precipitation.
  Because India is a major rice exporter, the findings could have implications on global food security. 

Canada to fund farmer-led research into new feed wheat varieties

Farmer-led research to find new feed wheat varieties will receive $400,000 as part of a commitment to innovation under Growing Forward 2, Canada’s Federal Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz and Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development Minister Ron Kostyshyn announced.
"Advanced research is key to developing new wheat varieties to help satisfy global demand for high-quality Canadian wheat. This investment will create more opportunities for farmers to generate revenue and grow their business," Ritz said.
The focus of this four-year project is to develop new feed wheat varieties that have characteristics such as high yield, flood tolerance, fusarium resistance and tolerance for Manitoba soils with high salinity. It will use traditional plant breeding techniques, so any resulting varieties will not be considered genetically modified and could be used in all livestock operations.
"It’s important for Manitoba farmers and the biofuels sector to have access to feed wheat varieties tailored to our growing conditions. This research is based on the priorities of Manitoba’s farmers. Growing more of our own animal feed within the province will lead to economic benefits for grain farmers, livestock producers and rural communities," Kostyshyn said.
The research will be led by the Western Feed Grain Development (WFGD) Co-op, which was established in 2005 to find new wheat varieties suitable for livestock feed and the ethanol industry. WFGD and its farmer-members are also contributing $1.8 million toward this research.
"The WFGD Co-op is unique because farmers can invest and participate in the development of varieties they can use on their own farm and we’re pleased to receive funding from Growing Forward 2. We are looking forward to applying these funds to our breeding program and addressing major areas of concern for Prairie producers, including post-seeding excess moisture, salinity, and aster yellows. WFGD Co-op is developing wheat varieties that will help to minimize the economic losses that result from these crop production challenges," said David Rourke, WFGD Co-op director.
Research into new feed wheat varieties supports the goals of the Grain Innovation Hub, a framework announced by ministers in May 2014 to establish Manitoba as a leader in the grain industry through strategic investments in grain production, research and processing.
This project is one of 32 funded this year through Growing Innovation – Agri-Food Research and Development Initiative (GI-ARDI) under Growing Forward 2. In total, more than $3.2 million will be invested in industry-led research for the crops, livestock, agri-environment and food sectors. The next intake date for GI-ARDI projects is October 2, 2014.
The federal and provincial governments are investing $176 million in Manitoba under Growing Forward 2, a five-year, federal-provincial-territorial policy framework to advance the agriculture industry, helping producers and processors become more innovative and competitive in world markets.

UK wheat area estimated up 22 percent for 2014 harvest

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)/HGCA (Home Grown Cereals Authority)'s Early Bird Survey of UK farmers' planting intentions shows a sharp rise in the total area of wheat and winter barley for harvest 2014 compared to 2013.
The team of agronomists assessing 280,000 hectares of arable land across Great Britain forecast that the total wheat area, including spring wheat, will increase by 22 percent to 1.98 million hectares at the UK level.
In this annual autumn survey, which provides the industry with a first snapshot of national planting decisions, cropping changes on individual farms in Great Britain were taken as a representation of national UK changes, assessing crops already drilled and growers' planting intentions. "This autumn we've had good drilling conditions across the UK and, as a consequence, we are looking at a return to a more normal cropping mix for harvest 2014 following a large shift to spring cropping in 2013," said Jack Watts, AHDB/HGCA lead analyst. "The return of a more normal UK wheat area is the first step to the UK returning to the export market, although yields and quality remain weather dependent. History shows that when farmers are able to turn intentions into reality, the Early Bird Survey gives a good indication of areas for key autumn sown crops in the UK."
Winter barley is also set to increase 55 percent to 484,000 hectares compared with 2013, and is the highest UK winter barley area seen in a decade. Additionally, the survey predicts the second-highest oilseed rape area ever cropped, behind 2012, at 740,000 hectares; an increase of 3 percent against the estimated harvest area of 2013. Due to the good autumn planting conditions compared with 2012, areas of spring barley, pulses and fallow land are expected to fall to pre-2013 levels. The spring barley area is forecast to drop 40 percent to 534,000 hectares and, although the oat area looks set to decrease by 26 percent to 130,000 hectares, this still represents a relatively large area of oats.
"The conditions in 2012/2013 led many farmers to change their usual crop rotations, and some farmers will still be dealing with the consequences of this," said Watts.

US, EU wheat sales diminishing inventory

The U.S. and European Union are selling wheat at the fastest pace in at least six years, diminishing stockpiles even as farmers reap a record crop, according to reports.
Sales from the U.S. in the past three months have grown 38 percent from 2012 and export licenses issued by the EU have more than doubled, government data show. World inventories will drop to a five-year low by June 30 as farmers harvest 705.4 million metric tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Futures will rise 15 percent to $7.40 a bushel by the start of the next season on July 1, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
China, set to overtake Egypt as the biggest wheat buyer, may import three times more this season. Brazil already bought 41 times more from the U.S. since June 1, USDA data show. Demand increased as futures tumbled 32 percent from a four-year high in July 2012, as drought eased in the U.S., the biggest shipper. The EU is the second-largest exporter.
Wheat, 2012's best-performing commodity, has dropped 17 percent to $6.4575 on the Chicago Board of Trade since the start of January. The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 0.3 percent and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 11 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index lost 3.9 percent.
Global wheat consumption of 706.81 million tons will outpace production for a second consecutive year, leaving inventories of 172.99 million tons, the lowest since the 2008-2009 season, the USDA predicts. The agency will cut its forecast to 172.75 million tons when it releases new estimates at noon in Washington on September 12, according to the average of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
U.S. exporters have sold 15.82 million tons of wheat since the marketing year began June 1, from 11.48 million tons at this time in 2012 and the fastest pace since 2007, according to USDA data. EU export licenses since July 1 climbed to 4.47 million tons, from 2.13 million a year earlier and the most since at least 2004.

South Africa lowers corn output estimate

South Africa will likely lower its estimated corn output by 2.5. percent from March numbers, according to the country's latest survey, while keeping its wheat numbers unchanged.
Farmers may harvest 11.5 million metric tons of corn, according to a median estimate, compared to the 11.8 million metric ton prediction made in March. The range was 11.1 million metric tons to 11.8 million metric tons.
Producers will probably plant 551,200 hectares (1.36 million acres) of land with wheat in South Africa's coming season, the same area as the current season, according to the median of five analysts’ estimates. The range was for 500,000 hectares to 550,000 tons.

Ukraine wheat, corn down from 2012 numbers

Ukraine's wheat and corn inventories are down from 2012 numbers, according to the country's Agriculture Ministry, with wheat at 6.5 million metric tons and corn at 9.5 million metric tons as of early March.
Current wheat numbers are compared to 8.1 million metric tons as of March 1, 2012, according to government statistics. Ukraine needs 3.5 million metric tons of wheat for domestic needs through the end of the marketing year on June 30, said the ministry. Corn stockpiles were at 9.7 million metric tons on March 1, 2012.
Total grain stocks are still up over 2012 numbers, at 22 million metric tons as of early March compared to 21 million metric tons. The Agriculture Ministry projected domestic demand at about 9.7 million metric tons from March through June.

Global wheat production forecast up in 2013

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' first forecast for world wheat production in 2013 stands at 690 million metric tons, representing an increase of 4.3 percent from the 2012 harvest and the second largest crop on record after that of 2011, according to the organization's latest report.
Europe
The increase is expected mostly in Europe, driven by an expansion in area in response to high prices, and a recovery in yields from below-average levels in some parts in 2012, notably the Russian Federation. Aggregate plantings in the EU are estimated to be 3 percent higher and weather conditions have been generally favorable so far. Elsewhere in Europe, prospects are satisfactory in the Russian Federation: although winter plantings have decreased, this is expected to be more than offset by an increase in the spring wheat area, and assuming yields recover from 2012’s drought-reduced levels, output is forecast to increase sharply. Also in Ukraine, a large recovery in wheat output is forecast as the winter wheat area recovered from 2012’s reduced level and winter conditions have been generally satisfactory.
North America
In North America, the outlook in the U.S. is less favorable than among the other major wheat-producing countries: although good precipitation in February has greatly improved the outlook in previously drought-affected winter wheat areas, it is likely too late for the stressed crops to make a full recovery. Thus, despite an estimated 1 percent increase in winter wheat plantings and the likelihood that spring plantings will at least match 2012’s level, if not expand slightly, aggregate wheat output is tentatively forecast to decrease by about 6 percent to 58 million metric tons, below the average of the past five years.
Asia
In Asia, prospects for the 2013 wheat crop, to be harvested from April, are mostly favorable in the main producing countries, according to the FAO report. In China, higher minimum purchase prices have encouraged farmers to maintain 2012’s good area and favorable weather conditions have benefited crops and early official forecasts point to a record wheat output of some 121 million metric tons in 2013. Also in Pakistan, a record wheat output is forecast reflecting larger plantings and good yield prospects. In India, plantings are around 2012’s good level and another bumper crop is in prospect although forecast slightly below the 2012 record because of limited rainfall in some important producing areas.
North Africa
In North Africa, early prospects for the 2013 wheat crops are good. Soil moisture was reported to be ample for planting last autumn and winter conditions have favored crop development.
Australia
In the southern hemisphere, the major wheat crops will be sown later in 2013. In Australia, where planting starts from April, early prospects are uncertain: tight supplies and strong prices are expected to provide incentive to farmers to increase plantings, but soil moisture reserves have been severely depleted by the summer heat wave in some major producing areas and much more precipitation is needed to ensure satisfactory planting conditions.

India wheat output may hit record for seventh year

India's wheat output may hit record numbers for the seventh year as cold weather increases potential yields and record domestic prices encourage planting and potential future exports, according to reports.
Better soil moisture and below-average temperatures in the main growing states of Punjab and Haryana since the end of December 2012 have been beneficial for the crop, said Indu Sharma, director at the Directorate of Wheat Research. The harvest starting from April may climb from an already all-time high of 93.9 million metric tons in 2011–2012, she said.
A bigger harvest could bring the government to pare stockpiles through exports and vacate warehouses for the new crop. Rising supplies from India may help partly make up for the potential crop losses from the U.S. to Argentina and Australia to dry weather and cap global food costs tracked by the United Nations' Food & Agriculture Organization.
Prices in India rose 29 percent in 2012 after exports rose and the government increased the minimum price paid to farmers to a record. The contract for delivery in February fell as much as 0.6 percent to 1,494 rupees (US$27) per 100 kilograms on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. in Mumbai on January 9. The contract for delivery in March fell as much as 0.3 percent to $7.4825 per bushel in Chicago on January 9.
Farmers planted wheat in 28.6 million hectares as of January 4, compared with 28.2 million hectares the same time in 2012, according to the farm ministry. Weather is set to remain favorable for crop development in the coming weeks, said L.S. Rathore, director general of the India Meteorological Department.
India's inventories of wheat totaled 34.4 million tons as of January 1, more than the minimum 11.2 million tons required to be held for emergencies and strategic reserves, according to the Food Corp. of India. The government bought 38.1 million tons of wheat from farmers in 2012–2013.

US wheat ending stocks projected up for 2012–2013

Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012–2013 have been raised 50 million bushels, reflecting lower prospects for exports again in December, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Projected exports have been lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies. U.S. exports are projected at 45 million bushels lower for hard red winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for soft red winter wheat and 5 million bushels lower for hard red spring wheat, according to the report. White wheat export estimates have been raised 10 million bushels. The projected 2012–2013 season-average farm price for all wheat has been lowered 10 cents at the midpoint, and the range has been narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012–2013 have been projected 1.6 million tons higher as a 3.7-million-ton increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks, mostly reflecting higher 2011–2012 wheat feeding for China. China wheat production for 2012–2013 has been raised 2.6 million tons based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production estimates for Australia and Canada have been raised 1 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, also based on the latest official government estimates, according to the USDA. Partly offsetting these increases are small reductions for Brazil and EU-27.
Global wheat export numbers for 2012–2013 have been raised slightly for December. Exports have been raised 0.5 million tons each for Australia, EU-27 and India, more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Exports have been lowered for Paraguay and Turkey, while imports have been raised for Brazil, China, Iran and Russia, but lowered again for Turkey. Global wheat feeding for 2012–2013 has been raised slightly with reductions for EU-27 and Australia more than offset by increases for China, Canada and Iran, according to the USDA report. For EU-27, higher corn imports and feeding have offset the reduction in expected wheat feed use. World wheat ending stocks for 2012–2013 have been projected 2.8 million tons higher on increases for the U.S., Australia, Russia and EU-27.

Argentina wheat attacked by fungi, rains delay other seeding

Flooding in Argentina's Pampas grains belt has led to fungi on wheat crops, and continued rains have delayed corn and soy seeding until at least October 28, according to analysts.
Excessive rainstorms have been a problem since August, leaving questions about grain supplies as dry weather in other parts of the world (Russia, Australia and the U.S. in particular) have added to the issue. Chicago grains futures have shown wheat grow 32 percent since January, while soy and corn have increased 28 percent and 16 percent, respectively.
Argentina's upcoming wheat harvest is expected to shrink 17 percent from last season to 11.5 million metric tons, according to the country's Agriculture Ministry, as farmers shift to other crops. "In the wheat sector, the appearance of diseases has become a worry, and plants have been lost in many areas since their roots were starved of oxygen," said a Rosario grains exchange report.
El Niño often brings rain to the Southern Cone. On the positive side, marginal growing regions such as San Luis, La Pampa, Santiago del Estero and Chaco provinces should get tropical-type weather over the months ahead, giving those areas more productivity potential than they usually have, according to analysts. The U.S. Department of Agriculture sees Argentina's 2012–2013 soy output at a record 55 million metric tons, corn at a record 28 million metric tons and wheat at 11.5 million metric tons.