Report: All US wheat affected by mycotoxins

All major classes of wheat in the U.S. are affected by deoxynivalenol (DON), according to Neogen’s Mycotoxin Report on September 21. The report said the milling quality of wheat has been reduced due to high DON levels.
DON has also been detected in wheat in Canada: In Ontario at 2-4 parts per million (ppm) and in Saskatchewan at more than 3 ppm.
Harvest for all small grains other than spring wheat have been completed. Spring wheat harvest is nearly finished and remains ahead of the five-year average.
The U.S. barley harvest is complete, with confirmed reports of DON in barley in Virginia, Maryland, North Dakota and Minnesota.

Corn development, outlook

Neogen’s report said corn development in the dented stage is slightly ahead of the five-year average, while fully mature corn is five points behind the five-year average. Development in Iowa, Missouri, Michigan and North Dakota is more than 10 percent behind average maturity.
Corn planted late in areas that experienced wet conditions and cooler temperatures is maturing later, leading to an increased risk of vomitoxin, the report said. Reports of aflatoxin in corn have been confirmed in South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. Fumonisin has been confirmed in Texas, North Carolina and California.
The U.S. corn harvest is four points behind the five-year average, with Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee more than 10 percent behind average development.
Richard Brock of Brock Associates said corn harvest in the South is slightly ahead of normal, while harvest in the Midwest is slower.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered expected corn yield from 168.8 bushels per acre to 167.5 bushels per acre. Expected yields in Nebraska and Missouri were lowered the most, from 187 to 184, and from 152 to 148, respectively.
Brock said the amount of corn in good to excellent condition is very high, especially in key states Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, where high yields are expected.

US wheat prices fall, soybeans near 1-month low

U.S. wheat fell on May 7, after climbing to its highest in 13 months, as a heat wave hit the plains states and political turmoil in Ukraine threatened to reduce supplies.
Soybeans fell for a third consecutive session and was trading near the one-month low from May 6, due to rising global oilseed supplies and slowing demand from China.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July wheat fell 0.3 percent to $7.36-1/2 a bushel. Front-month May wheat contract fell 0.2 percent to $7.29-3/4 a bushel, after closing up 1.5 percent in the previous session when prices hit $7.35, the highest spot price since early April 2013.
July soybeans fell 0.3 percent to $14.54-1/4 a bushel, not far from $14.43-1/4 a bushel from Tuesday, its lowest since April 7. July corn rose 0.2 percent to $5.18-3/4 a bushel.
The Chicago wheat market was pausing while it awaited U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports on May 9, Arnaud Saulais of Starsupply Commodity Brokers said in a Reuters report. "It is common to see the markets pull back one or two days before the USDA reports, although wheat is still well supported by the hot weather in U.S. grain belts."
Temperatures in parts of the southern Plains topped 100F on May 5, and unseasonably high temperatures and high winds persisted on May 6.
On May 9, the USDA on will release its first official production estimate of the U.S. wheat crop, along with initial forecasts for U.S. and world grain 2014-15 ending stocks.
"I do not think U.S. wheat is facing a resistance level; it is more of a general pause in the market," Saulais said.
The USDA said 31 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in good to excellent condition, down from 33 percent a week earlier.
As for the U.S. corn crop, the USDA said it was 29 percent seeded, lagging the five-year average of 42 percent and behind an average trader estimate of 33 percent.
Wheat and corn were drawing support as fears grew that Ukraine’s exports could be curbed. In China, demand for soybeans were slowing.

US wheat up on increased China demand

U.S. wheat rose on September 23, rebounding from losses of more than 1.5 percent in the previous session, as forecasts for increased Chinese demand underpinned gains.
Chicago Board of Trade December wheat futures rose 0.3 percent to $6.48-1/4 per bushel by 0252 GMT, having lost 1.6 percent on September 20. "The support for wheat prices can be attributed to the forecast for China 2013-2014 wheat imports at 7.5 million metric tons after weather ruined China's domestic crops," said Joyce Liu, investment analyst with Phillip Futures Singapore.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center on September 23 increased its projections for Chinese import demand to 7.5 million metric tons, having previously pegged imports at 6.5 million metric tons. The revised figure would be the highest imports for China in a decade. The bad weather that damaged the Chinese harvest in May and June has boosted demand for U.S. wheat.
U.S. exporters shipped more wheat to global buyers in the week ended September 12 than in any week for more than two decades, with most of the wheat going to Brazil and China, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

US wheat futures up on Russia weather, previous slump

U.S. wheat futures rose on December 24 due to a combination of freezing temperatures in Russia that may be damaging the country's winter wheat crop and three weeks of futures declines that have made U.S. wheat more competitive, according to reports.
Wheat for March delivery advanced as much as 0.5 percent to $7.9625 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. “In Russia, the extremely cold temperatures could have caused some frost damage in the regions with a lack of snow cover, such as those in the south of the country,” said Paris-based farm adviser Agritel. The Volga region in Russia, which has reached temperatures of -15 Fahrenheit, accounts for 26 percent of Russia's wheat production. The Southern District region accounts for another 28 percent.

Chicago wheat futures fell 2.7 percent the third week in December and have dropped 8.1 percent in December overall, on track for the biggest monthly slide since September 2011, according to reports. Wheat in Chicago has still gained 22 percent in 2012, however, the best performance on the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities in 2012, as drought in Russia and Ukraine reduced export supplies.
“U.S. wheat prices are extremely competitive and increasing export sales activity is likely to develop and buying interest is likely to shift to the U.S.,” said Duane Lowry, publisher of Early Market News.

US wheat ending stocks projected up for 2012–2013

Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012–2013 have been raised 50 million bushels, reflecting lower prospects for exports again in December, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Projected exports have been lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies. U.S. exports are projected at 45 million bushels lower for hard red winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for soft red winter wheat and 5 million bushels lower for hard red spring wheat, according to the report. White wheat export estimates have been raised 10 million bushels. The projected 2012–2013 season-average farm price for all wheat has been lowered 10 cents at the midpoint, and the range has been narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012–2013 have been projected 1.6 million tons higher as a 3.7-million-ton increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks, mostly reflecting higher 2011–2012 wheat feeding for China. China wheat production for 2012–2013 has been raised 2.6 million tons based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production estimates for Australia and Canada have been raised 1 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, also based on the latest official government estimates, according to the USDA. Partly offsetting these increases are small reductions for Brazil and EU-27.
Global wheat export numbers for 2012–2013 have been raised slightly for December. Exports have been raised 0.5 million tons each for Australia, EU-27 and India, more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Exports have been lowered for Paraguay and Turkey, while imports have been raised for Brazil, China, Iran and Russia, but lowered again for Turkey. Global wheat feeding for 2012–2013 has been raised slightly with reductions for EU-27 and Australia more than offset by increases for China, Canada and Iran, according to the USDA report. For EU-27, higher corn imports and feeding have offset the reduction in expected wheat feed use. World wheat ending stocks for 2012–2013 have been projected 2.8 million tons higher on increases for the U.S., Australia, Russia and EU-27.

Kansas, Nebraska complete corn harvest ahead of schedule

Kansas and Nebraska have nearly completed their corn harvests, well ahead of both the 2011 harvests and the five-year average, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers.
Kansas was 99 percent complete as of November 4, two weeks ahead of 2011's 95 percent and more than three weeks ahead of the five-year average of 85 percent; while Nebraska was 97 percent finished — well ahead of 2011's 83 percent and the five-year average of 64 percent, according to the USDA.
Kansas's wheat planting was 98 percent complete by November 4, on schedule with 2011 but ahead of the 94-percent five-year average. Eighty-seven percent of the wheat has emerged, ahead of 2011's 85 percent and the 80-percent five-year average. Eighty-six percent of Kansas's soybean crop has been harvested, behind 2011's 90 percent but still ahead of the five-year average of 81 percent, according to the USDA.
Nebraska's winter wheat emerged was 83 percent, well behind 99 percent in 2011 and the 98 five-year average, due to dry soils. Sorghum harvested was 94 percent complete, ahead of 2011's 79 percent and the five-year average of 60 percent, said the USDA report. Dry beans harvested were 99 percent, near the 100 percent in 2011 and equal to the 99 percent five-year average.

Wheat bulb fly threat low, says study

Results from this season’s Home Grown Cereals Authority's autumn wheat bulb fly survey suggest that the risk from this pest is relatively low; in fact, the overall risk in 2012 is equal to the lowest-level risk recorded since 1984.
A total of 30 fields were sampled, with sites split across eastern and northern England, where the pest is historically most prevalent. “It is likely that the cold and wet weather had an impact on the number of adult flies and their ability to lay eggs,” said Caroline Nicholls, Home Grown Cereals Authority research and KT manager. “However, late-drilled crops, sown after November, or slow-developing crops may still be at risk if they have only one or two tillers at the time of wheat bulb fly hatch in January/February. For these crops, a lower threshold of 100 eggs/m2 is considered more appropriate."
In the east of England, 47 percent of the sampled sites and 27 percent of the sampled sites in northern England were above 100 eggs/m2. In these situations, late-sown crops would benefit from an insecticide seed treatment, according to the researchers.

US wheat, corn planting ahead of average on favorable weather

Roughly 37 percent of the U.S. spring-wheat crop was seeded and 17 percent of the corn crop was planted as of April 15, both well ahead from the previous five-year averages of nine and five percent, respectively, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
Five percent of the spring-wheat crop was planted this time in 2011. The winter-wheat crop is in better condition than the same time in 2011, as above-normal rains in parts of the southern Great Plains and the Midwest during the past month improved yield potential, said Mike Tannura, president of T-Storm Weather LLC. An estimated 64 percent of the crop is in good or excellent condition, up from 61 percent during the second week of April, according to the USDA. During the same week in 2011, 36 percent had the top ratings. The U.S. winter-wheat crop was valued at $10.185 billion in 2011, or about 71 percent of the total wheat harvest.
The most-active corn contract has dropped 5.7 percent in April on speculation that rapid U.S. planting will boost yields. Farmers are expected to increase corn sowing by 4.3 percent to 95.864 million acres, the most since 1937, said the USDA on March 30.

US wheat prices drop as stocks hit 10-year high

U.S. wheat prices may drop as low as $5.90 per bushel before the end of December, according to trade analysts, as the second-largest harvest on record grows stockpiles and eases shortages.
Prices have already fallen 21%, reaching $6.24 per bushel in Chicago. Supplies in the 12 months ending June 30 are expected to grow by 5% to 684 million metric tons — the highest in a decade. In 2010, a 47% rise in prices led farmers to plant more grain, while Russia and Ukraine recovered from drought that ruined their crops. Harvests are also rising in Canada and Kazakhstan, which were hard-hit by bad weather. Wheat demand is expected to expand to 22 million tons, compared to a previous 3 million tons, but stockpiles will still grow to 202 million tons, according to the International Grains Council.
In conjunction with the larger stocks is a predicted increase in wheat-feed use, according to the IGC. Farmers will use up to 124.2 million tons of wheat in their animal feed, a 9% gain and the highest level in about 20 years, as corn prices remain high. Rabobank predicts an even higher possibility, 129.5 million tons.

US corn harvest may reach 13.759 billion bushels

Analytics firm Informa Economics predicts U.S. farmers will harvest 13.759 billion bushels of corn and 3.203 billion bushels of soybean crop in 2011, according to reports.
Informa estimates corn yields at 162.5 bushels per acre, based on harvested acreage of 84.7 million acres. The firm's 2011 harvested corn area predictions are 200,000 acres short of June estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Estimates for soybean yields are 43.1 bushels per acre, based on harvested acreage of 74.3 million acres. Estimates for U.S. wheat harvests in 2011 are 2.095 billion bushels from 47.2 million acres, a wheat yield Informa projects to be 44.4 bushels per acre.

US wheat supplies, production down from 2010 numbers

Projected ending U.S. wheat stocks for the 2011-2012 harvest year are 687 million bushels, down 122 million bushels from the 2010-2011 year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Total wheat supplies for 2011-2012 are projected down 307 million bushels, due to both smaller carryin stocks and production from 2010-2011, according to the USDA. Beginning stocks are at 809 million bushels, down 30 million bushels from May. Projected imports, at 110 million bushels, are unchanged from May, but up 10 million bushels from the 2010-2011 year.
Total projected wheat use is down 185 million bushels from 2010-2011, to 2.29 billion bushels, in spite of higher domestic use. Food use is projected at 945 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from 2010-2011, but exports are down 245 million bushels, to 1.05 billion bushels.
Total production is projected at 2.06 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels from the 2010-2011 harvest year.

US corn, soybean, wheat planting behind 2010 due to weather

U.S. planting has remained behind 2010 numbers due to wet weather.

U.S. corn, soybean and wheat planting has remained behind 2010 numbers due to wet weather in the eastern Midwest and northern regions preventing fieldwork, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Roughly 86% of the corn crop was planted as of May 29, compared to 79% a week earlier and 97% during the same time in 2010. Soybean planting was 51% complete, compared with 41% a week earlier and 71% in 2010. About 68% of the wheat crop was seeded, compared with 54% a week earlier and 95% in 2010.

US farmers must plant 237 million acres corn, other crops to meet global demand

237 million acres of corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton will need to be planted this year in the U.S. to meet U.S. and global demands.

The Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory group's report, "The Battle For Acres: U.S. Field Crops in Competition,” has concluded that in order to build U.S. and global supplies to acceptable levels, 237 million acres of corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton will need to be planted this year in the U.S.
The estimate represents an increase of 7 million over 2010’s total planted acres and an increase of 3 million over 2008’s record high of 234 million planted acres. Such numbers could lead to price volatility as producers determine how much of each crop to plant. "The consequence of the current competition among major crops, other principal crops and land uses, as well as historical precedence, is an intensely volatile environment which could drive prices to historical highs,” said co-author Sterling Liddell, vice president of FAR. “Global events are adding volatility on both the supply and demand side. Conditions are different this year from 2008, as all crops have rallied strongly in need of more U.S. production."
While profit margins favor corn over soybeans and wheat, according to the report the differential is not strong enough to drive significant substitution among the four major crops.