The good news continued with the opening of new markets for chicken and eggs and a reopening of other markets for Brazilian pork. Major importers authorized more of the country’s plants, and exchange rates also favored Brazilian exports over the last year.
As a result, ABPA forecasts that 2015 exports of poultry and pig meat will reach a value of BRR25 billion (US$8.7 billion).
There is also good news for Brazil’s farmers from home, with domestic consumptionremaining high for chicken, eggs and pork as beef prices stay high.
Producers have faced severe challenges this year, however. These have included rising corn and soybean prices, which pushed up production costs, especially in the second half of the year. Exports were also hampered by truckers’ strikes, agricultural federal tax and port closures due to bad weather.
Chicken meat forecastsAccording to ABPA, production of poultry meatin Brazil should reach 13.136 million tons in 2015, 3.5 percent more than the year before. This would put Brazil ahead of China in the global rankings of chicken producers at No. 2 position.
At home, chicken meat consumption is forecast to reach 43 kilograms – more than 1 percent higher than in 2014.
Looking ahead to 2016, output is forecast to rise between 3 and 5 percent.
“This further growth will come from the openingup of new markets for Brazilian chicken and organic growth at home from the rising population and expected reversal of Brazil's economic situation,” commented ABPA’s chief executive, Francisco Turra.
Brazilian exports of poultry meat are forecast to be 4 percent higher than 2014 at 4.26 million tons. While the value of those exports is 25 percent higher in local currency at BRR23.7 billion, there is a fall of 11 percent in U.S. dollars at US$ 7.1 billion.
“This year, in addition to the opening of new markets in Malaysia and Myanmar, China authorized a further two plants for exports, bringing its total to 30, and Mexico has added 16 new plants, making a total of 20 authorizations.
For2016, the industry expects further growth in export volumes of between 3 and 5 percent
“We anticipate the opening of Taiwan and the Dominican Republic as export markets and further authorization of plants to export to China,” said ABPA vice-president for poultry, Ricardo Santin. “There is also interest from Australia, New Zealand and Cambodia and the WTO has set up a trade dispute panel to consider Brazil’s case against Indonesia.”
Turkey meat prospectsABPA forecasts put Brazilian production ofturkey meat at 329,000 tons in 2015, 0.1 percent more than the previous year.
Exportsare expected to reach 133,000 tons this year, which represents an increase of 6.3 percent in volume from 2014. This would put revenue for the year up 21 percent in local currency at BRR950 million but down 13 percent in US dollars at US287 million.
Expectations for the Brazilian pig meat sectorPork productionis forecast to be 3.643 million tons in 2015, 4.9 percent above the year-ago figure.
Further growth of between 2 and 3 percent is forecast for next year. According to Turra, this will come about as the result of an increase in exports and a small increase in per-capita domestic consumption.
Average uptake is thought to have reached 15 kilograms for the first time in 2015. This would represent an increase of 2.7 percent from 2014.
For 2015, Brazilian pork exports are forecast to 550,000 tons, which is 8.9 percent more than the year before. While the value is up 14 percent in local currency compared to 2014 at BRR4.3 billion, the US dollar value is 20 percent lower at US$1.2 billion.
“Last year, accelerating sales for Eastern Europe pushed the sales figures to historic highs,” said Turra. “This year, we saw a readjustment of price levels to equivalent levels in previous years, which explains the decline in revenue.”
“This year, the highlight was Russia, accounting for about 45 percent of the total exported by the country, with an average rise of 30 percent on purchases this year compared to 2014,” commented ABPA vice president for the pig industry, Rui Eduardo Vargas Saldanha.
For2016, the industry is forecasting growth in pork exports volumes of between 2 and 3 percent.
“In addition toimproving sales to Eastern Europe and major buyers in Asia - Hong Kong and Singapore - two new plants are expected to influence positively shipments to China. There are also high expectations for the opening of the market in South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and European Union,” said Turra.
“There are also opportunities in South Africa and for improved trading with China,” added Vargas.