Crop and livestock production prospects in Southern Africa are threatened by the El Niño weather phenomenon that has reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The situation will likely be exacerbated as last year's season was also disappointing and food prices have risen as a result. A special alert released last week by FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) warned the combined effects “could acutely impact the food security situation in 2016.”
Corn planting has already been delayed by the drought conditions, and those crops that have been sown are struggling to establish with inadequate rains and high temperatures.
Farmers in the region are almost entirely dependent on rain, so harvests are highly susceptible to its variations.
El Niño's impacts vary by location and season but previous strong episodes have been associated with reduced production in several countries, including South Africa, which is the largest cereal producer in the sub-region and typically exports corn to neighboring countries.
“Weather forecasts indicate a higher probability of a continuation of below-normal rains between December and March across most countries,” according to the GIEWS alert.
South Africa has already declared drought status for five provinces, its main cereal-producing regions, while Lesotho has issued a drought mitigation plan, and Swaziland has implemented water restrictions as reservoir levels have become low.
According to the latest Grain Market Report from the International Grains Council (IGC), the forecast for global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2015-16 has been cut by 3 million metric tons (mmt) to 1,996 mmt or about 2 percent below last season’s record. Main cause of this reduction is the effect on the corn crops of the drought conditions in Ethiopia, South Africa and China.
For South Africa, IGC estimates the 2014-15 corn crop at 15.0 mmt, but the following year – ending in April 2016 – at just 10.6 mmt. Exports for the current season are forecast at 0.6 mmt – around one-third of recent annual exported volumes.
Showing posts with label drought. Show all posts
Showing posts with label drought. Show all posts
Monday, January 4, 2016
Thursday, February 20, 2014
White House to provide additional assistance to Californians impacted by drought
- $100 million in livestock disaster assistance for California producers
- $15 million in targeted conservation assistance for the most extreme and exceptional drought areas
- $5 million in targeted Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) Program assistance to the most drought impacted areas of California to protect vulnerable soils
- $60 million has been made available to food banks in the State of California to help families that may be economically impacted by the drought
- $3 million in Emergency Water Assistance Grants for rural communities experiencing water shortages
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack joined President Barack Obama in Fresno, Calif., on February 14 to announce that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will provide additional assistance to help farmers, ranchers and residents affected by severe drought in California. At President Obama's direction, USDA has made implementation of the 2014 Farm Bill livestock disaster assistance programs a top priority and plans to have the programs available for sign up by April 15, 2014.
"President Obama and I will continue to do everything within our power to support California farmers, ranchers and families living in drought-stricken areas. This assistance, coupled with other aid being made available across government, should provide some relief during this difficult time," said Vilsack. "Thanks to the newly signed Farm Bill, we are now able to offer long-awaited livestock disaster assistance, which will provide needed stability for California livestock producers impacted by drought."
USDA has declared 54 counties in California as primary natural disaster areas due to drought. Additional USDA resources announced for California and other drought-stricken states include:
"President Obama and I will continue to do everything within our power to support California farmers, ranchers and families living in drought-stricken areas. This assistance, coupled with other aid being made available across government, should provide some relief during this difficult time," said Vilsack. "Thanks to the newly signed Farm Bill, we are now able to offer long-awaited livestock disaster assistance, which will provide needed stability for California livestock producers impacted by drought."
USDA has declared 54 counties in California as primary natural disaster areas due to drought. Additional USDA resources announced for California and other drought-stricken states include:
Friday, September 6, 2013
Corn study shows impact of Mississippi River closure due to drought
Due to the drought-induced low water levels on the Mississippi River in 2012 and early into 2013, farmers experienced on average $0.45 lower cash corn prices, according to a study funded by the Illinois Corn Marketing Board, Iowa Farm Bureau and Iowa, Indiana and Missouri corn check-off programs.
The purpose of the study, conducted by Informa Economics, was to document an actual event simulating a prolonged river interruption. Instead of an economic model, the real-world event of low water on the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill., was examined. The study revealed that, as a consequence the unavailability of river shipping, diversion to rail was at a 45 cent-per-bushel premium to barge rates. The 45 cent-per-bushel premium to barge rates encouraged the storage of grain until the river market stabilized, or its use elsewhere in the marketing chain.
The study results were presented during a public hearing held by the Mississippi River Commission on August 16 in Alton, Ill.
The purpose of the study, conducted by Informa Economics, was to document an actual event simulating a prolonged river interruption. Instead of an economic model, the real-world event of low water on the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill., was examined. The study revealed that, as a consequence the unavailability of river shipping, diversion to rail was at a 45 cent-per-bushel premium to barge rates. The 45 cent-per-bushel premium to barge rates encouraged the storage of grain until the river market stabilized, or its use elsewhere in the marketing chain.
The study results were presented during a public hearing held by the Mississippi River Commission on August 16 in Alton, Ill.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Council reports record-breaking $17.3 billion in crop losses in 2012
- Illinois: 98 percent of all crop losses were caused by drought, heat and hot wind, costing $3,011,443,799
- Iowa: 97 percent of losses, costing $1,924,444,160
- Indiana: 97 percent of losses, costing $1,130,302,660
- Kentucky: 96 percent of losses, costing $454,380,256
- Missouri: 95 percent of losses, costing $1,098,310,111
- Wisconsin: 94 percent of losses, costing $372,479,370
- South Dakota: 93 percent of losses, costing $1,029,780,352
- Kansas: 93 percent of losses, costing $1,273,662,944
- Nebraska: 92 percent of losses, costing $1,427,738,976
- Texas: 75 percent of losses, costing $974,548,606
- Cover crops: crops grown with the specific purpose of building soil health and increasing biodiversity on farms focused on growing major commodity crops. Farmers who used cover crops in 2012 averaged higher yields than farmers who did not, according to one recent USDA survey. The yield benefit from cover crops was most pronounced in the areas hardest hit by the drought, demonstrating the importance of cover crops to drought-proofing fields.
- No-till farming: a soil moisture management method when farmers plant directly into the stubble from the previous year's crops, rather than plowing up this residue. The protective stubble serves as mulch that retains soil moisture, suppresses weeds and increases a field's capacity to grow high-yield crops. In 2010, corn farmers who used no-till were 30 percent less likely to file a crop insurance claim than conventional tilling corn farmers.
- Improved irrigation scheduling: a simple altering of often fixed irrigation times, whereby farmers apply adaptive irrigating schedules based on frequent examinations of soil health. This improved efficiency could help farmers avoid some supply constraints that cause losses during dry years; in 2012, irrigation supply failures accounted for more than $14.7 million in indemnity payments.
Extreme weather forced the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) to pay out a record-breaking $17.3 billion in crop losses last year, much of which could have been prevented using water-smart strategies, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council. Payments made to farmers during the 2012 growing season to cover losses from drought, heat and hot wind alone accounted for 80 percent of all farm losses, with many Upper Midwest and Great Plains states hit hardest.
With extreme weather conditions such as drought expected to become more common, record-breaking insurance payouts will likely continue to increase. However, widespread adoption of crop-loss prevention methods that build soil health and improve water management on farms can limit these losses. From 2001 to 2010, crop losses averaged just $4.1 billion a year, making the 2012 record-breaking FCIP payouts even more staggering.
"The Federal Crop Insurance Program has failed farmers and taxpayers by ignoring water challenges," said Claire O'Connor, NRDC Agricultural Water Policy Analyst. "The program was designed to be a safety net, not a subsidy for increasingly risky practices and less sustainable food production. We need to empower farmers to invest in low risk, water-smart practices that are proven to reduce crop losses."
NRDC's study, Soil Matters: How the Federal Crop Insurance Program should be reformed, includes a new interactive crop loss and weather map detailing crop losses county-by-county in all 50 states in 2012, when more than 80 percent of agricultural lands nationwide suffered drought.
The report finds that American farms, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains, were primarily impacted by three major forms of extreme weather in 2012: drought, heat and hot wind, all of which are expected to increase in the future. The top ten states with the largest overall crop insurance payouts due to drought, heat and hot wind were:
"Farmers can apply their own skills to build healthy soil, reduce the worst effects of climate change, and rein in the skyrocketing costs of this program," said Gabe Brown, Great Plains farmer and soil champion. "Healthy soil is one of the most effective and time-tested insurance policies we have."
These best management practices include cover cropping, conservation tillage and improved irrigation scheduling:
With extreme weather conditions such as drought expected to become more common, record-breaking insurance payouts will likely continue to increase. However, widespread adoption of crop-loss prevention methods that build soil health and improve water management on farms can limit these losses. From 2001 to 2010, crop losses averaged just $4.1 billion a year, making the 2012 record-breaking FCIP payouts even more staggering.
"The Federal Crop Insurance Program has failed farmers and taxpayers by ignoring water challenges," said Claire O'Connor, NRDC Agricultural Water Policy Analyst. "The program was designed to be a safety net, not a subsidy for increasingly risky practices and less sustainable food production. We need to empower farmers to invest in low risk, water-smart practices that are proven to reduce crop losses."
NRDC's study, Soil Matters: How the Federal Crop Insurance Program should be reformed, includes a new interactive crop loss and weather map detailing crop losses county-by-county in all 50 states in 2012, when more than 80 percent of agricultural lands nationwide suffered drought.
The report finds that American farms, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains, were primarily impacted by three major forms of extreme weather in 2012: drought, heat and hot wind, all of which are expected to increase in the future. The top ten states with the largest overall crop insurance payouts due to drought, heat and hot wind were:
"Farmers can apply their own skills to build healthy soil, reduce the worst effects of climate change, and rein in the skyrocketing costs of this program," said Gabe Brown, Great Plains farmer and soil champion. "Healthy soil is one of the most effective and time-tested insurance policies we have."
These best management practices include cover cropping, conservation tillage and improved irrigation scheduling:
Friday, June 28, 2013
Storing higher levels of corn can pay off in long run
The drought-free period from 1988 to 2012 was good for the poultry industry because there were healthy harvests of feed corn. But it also had its consequences, Poultry Perspective economist Paul Aho said June 24 at the USPOULTRY Financial Management Seminar.
That period of high corn production also lulled poultry producers into feeling of complacency, which was dangerous to the industry.
"Yields were rising. No droughts were happening, so what could possibly go wrong," he said, noting that producers did not see any reason to have extra corn "hanging around not earning anything."
"We thought we didn't need it, until we did need it," said Aho.
Over the course of the last three years, record-high corn prices have emerged and the poultry industry has suffered.
And even though Aho said corn supplies appear to be rebounding in 2013 and the drought is over, he advised that the U.S. poultry industry learn from its mistakes.
"I think there's a lesson to learn here about storing grain and having access to grain," Aho said. "The Chinese are famous for storing grain. We sometimes criticize them for storing too much grain, but they have 5,000 years of history and they remember certain things about history. Storing grain is probably a good idea. It's mentioned in the Bible and a lot of thoughtful people have mentioned it over the years."
That period of high corn production also lulled poultry producers into feeling of complacency, which was dangerous to the industry.
"Yields were rising. No droughts were happening, so what could possibly go wrong," he said, noting that producers did not see any reason to have extra corn "hanging around not earning anything."
"We thought we didn't need it, until we did need it," said Aho.
Over the course of the last three years, record-high corn prices have emerged and the poultry industry has suffered.
And even though Aho said corn supplies appear to be rebounding in 2013 and the drought is over, he advised that the U.S. poultry industry learn from its mistakes.
"I think there's a lesson to learn here about storing grain and having access to grain," Aho said. "The Chinese are famous for storing grain. We sometimes criticize them for storing too much grain, but they have 5,000 years of history and they remember certain things about history. Storing grain is probably a good idea. It's mentioned in the Bible and a lot of thoughtful people have mentioned it over the years."
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Volatile weather patterns spell uncertainty for pork, chicken producers
The volatile spring weather in 2013 has clouded the future of this year's corn crop and the outlook for meat producers.
Much of the outlook for the meat industry depends on the weather in the next couple of months and its impact on the corn crop. While the spring rains have erased the Midwest drought of 2012, the May rains and cold spring are now casting doubt on the future of the 2013 corn crop, according to the combined weather and crop outlook presented at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, June 5.
Steve Meyer, PhD, of Paragon Economics, said that if there is a decent corn crop - which depends on some hot, dry weather in June and rains starting up again in late July - the pork industry could return to profitability in 2014, and the chicken industry will see the dramatic growth it is poised for. The beef industry, by contrast, will take years to recover from the 2012 drought.
"Midwest corn is once again in a situation where weather will have a big impact on the crop," said Meyer. "If things dry out and we get rain in the late summer, we'll have a good harvest and $4 corn. If things go badly, we could have $7 corn."
A decent corn crop - a 145 to 150 bushel per acre average - will keep corn prices at current levels allowing pork producers to return to profitability. The chicken industry is ramping up production, and with current high prices could see a very good year - if corn prices hold at current levels. "The chicken producers can control production levels much more quickly than everyone else, which works to their advantage," said Meyer.
The second speaker in the luncheon program, Dr. Elwynn Taylor of Iowa State University, gave his forecast for the short and long-term weather. His short-term forecast was not overly optimistic, saying there are signs that the La Niña phenomenon that drove 2012's dry summer may repeat itself. That could lead to a hot, dry summer. "The volatile conditions we are seeing aren't conducive to good crops," he said.
Taylor predicted that we are headed into a 25-year cycle of more volatile swings in weather from year to year. He showed patterns from the last 90 years that showed a cycle of 18 years of predictable weather, followed by a 25-year period of large year-to-year swings in weather. He said 2012 was the 19th year in the predictable cycle, and he thinks it marked the beginning of the volatile cycle.
"Risk management is going to be very important for all of agriculture in the coming years," Taylor said.
Much of the outlook for the meat industry depends on the weather in the next couple of months and its impact on the corn crop. While the spring rains have erased the Midwest drought of 2012, the May rains and cold spring are now casting doubt on the future of the 2013 corn crop, according to the combined weather and crop outlook presented at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, June 5.
Steve Meyer, PhD, of Paragon Economics, said that if there is a decent corn crop - which depends on some hot, dry weather in June and rains starting up again in late July - the pork industry could return to profitability in 2014, and the chicken industry will see the dramatic growth it is poised for. The beef industry, by contrast, will take years to recover from the 2012 drought.
"Midwest corn is once again in a situation where weather will have a big impact on the crop," said Meyer. "If things dry out and we get rain in the late summer, we'll have a good harvest and $4 corn. If things go badly, we could have $7 corn."
A decent corn crop - a 145 to 150 bushel per acre average - will keep corn prices at current levels allowing pork producers to return to profitability. The chicken industry is ramping up production, and with current high prices could see a very good year - if corn prices hold at current levels. "The chicken producers can control production levels much more quickly than everyone else, which works to their advantage," said Meyer.
The second speaker in the luncheon program, Dr. Elwynn Taylor of Iowa State University, gave his forecast for the short and long-term weather. His short-term forecast was not overly optimistic, saying there are signs that the La Niña phenomenon that drove 2012's dry summer may repeat itself. That could lead to a hot, dry summer. "The volatile conditions we are seeing aren't conducive to good crops," he said.
Taylor predicted that we are headed into a 25-year cycle of more volatile swings in weather from year to year. He showed patterns from the last 90 years that showed a cycle of 18 years of predictable weather, followed by a 25-year period of large year-to-year swings in weather. He said 2012 was the 19th year in the predictable cycle, and he thinks it marked the beginning of the volatile cycle.
"Risk management is going to be very important for all of agriculture in the coming years," Taylor said.
Monday, May 27, 2013
US corn, soy prices following expected post-drought patterns
U.S. corn and soybean prices have generally followed the expected pattern experienced in other "short crop" years, with prices peaking near harvest and returning to pre-drought levels later in the marketing year, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
“For old-crop corn prices, July 2013 futures peaked at $8.24 on August 10, 2012, nearly $3.00 above the June 2012 low,” said Good. “That contract is currently trading near $6.50, well below the peak, but still above the pre-drought level. Due to an inverted price structure, spot-cash prices have been above July futures in much of the Corn Belt since January 2013, and that strong basis continues.
“Prices remain generally high as it is not yet clear that the small crop of 2012 has been sufficiently rationed,” he said. “Exports remain weak, but ethanol production is rebounding from the low levels in the first half of the marketing year. Uncertainty still surrounds the magnitude of feed and residual use of corn."
For new-crop corn, prices have completed the transition back to pre-drought levels, according to Good. December 2013 futures peaked at $6.64 on September 10, 2012, about $1.50 above the June 2012 low. That contract is currently trading just over $5.15, about $0.05 above the summer 2012 low. Soybean prices have behaved similarly to corn prices but are still well above pre-drought levels. July 2013 futures peaked at $16.05 on Sept. 14, 2012, about $3.85 above the June 2012 low. That contract is currently trading near $14.60, still in the upper half of the trading range of the past year.
Due to the ongoing futures price inversion, spot-cash prices in the Corn Belt have been above July futures all year, with basis levels strengthening in recent weeks. Old-crop prices are being supported by prospects of a minimum level of year-ending stocks and the need for consumption to remain under the pace of a year ago.
For new-crop soybeans, prices are closer to a complete transition back to pre-drought levels, said Good. November 2013 futures peaked at $14.10 on September 14, 2012, $2.70 above the June 2012 low. That contract is currently trading near $12.25, $0.85 above the low of a year ago and $1.85 below the peak.
“For old-crop corn prices, July 2013 futures peaked at $8.24 on August 10, 2012, nearly $3.00 above the June 2012 low,” said Good. “That contract is currently trading near $6.50, well below the peak, but still above the pre-drought level. Due to an inverted price structure, spot-cash prices have been above July futures in much of the Corn Belt since January 2013, and that strong basis continues.
“Prices remain generally high as it is not yet clear that the small crop of 2012 has been sufficiently rationed,” he said. “Exports remain weak, but ethanol production is rebounding from the low levels in the first half of the marketing year. Uncertainty still surrounds the magnitude of feed and residual use of corn."
For new-crop corn, prices have completed the transition back to pre-drought levels, according to Good. December 2013 futures peaked at $6.64 on September 10, 2012, about $1.50 above the June 2012 low. That contract is currently trading just over $5.15, about $0.05 above the summer 2012 low. Soybean prices have behaved similarly to corn prices but are still well above pre-drought levels. July 2013 futures peaked at $16.05 on Sept. 14, 2012, about $3.85 above the June 2012 low. That contract is currently trading near $14.60, still in the upper half of the trading range of the past year.
Due to the ongoing futures price inversion, spot-cash prices in the Corn Belt have been above July futures all year, with basis levels strengthening in recent weeks. Old-crop prices are being supported by prospects of a minimum level of year-ending stocks and the need for consumption to remain under the pace of a year ago.
For new-crop soybeans, prices are closer to a complete transition back to pre-drought levels, said Good. November 2013 futures peaked at $14.10 on September 14, 2012, $2.70 above the June 2012 low. That contract is currently trading near $12.25, $0.85 above the low of a year ago and $1.85 below the peak.
Monday, May 6, 2013
South Africa corn output forecast down 1.6 percent on drought
South Africa has cut its corn output forecast by 1.6 percent due to drought in some growing regions, according to the country's Crop Estimates Committee. The number is now 11.6 million metric tons of corn, down from the 11.8 million metric tons predicted in March.
South Africa produced 12.8 million metric tons of corn in 2010, the country's largest crop since 1982. “Prolonged dry spells in the Northwest and Free State provinces” reduced the forecast, said Marda Scheepers, a spokeswoman for the committee.
Farmers will probably sow 516,600 hectares of wheat, 1.1 percent more than the area planted last season, according to the committee. The country’s farmers planted 551,200 hectares of wheat in 2012, the smallest area since the start of record keeping in 1931. South Africa is expected to harvest 1.92 million metric tons of wheat this season.
South Africa produced 12.8 million metric tons of corn in 2010, the country's largest crop since 1982. “Prolonged dry spells in the Northwest and Free State provinces” reduced the forecast, said Marda Scheepers, a spokeswoman for the committee.
Farmers will probably sow 516,600 hectares of wheat, 1.1 percent more than the area planted last season, according to the committee. The country’s farmers planted 551,200 hectares of wheat in 2012, the smallest area since the start of record keeping in 1931. South Africa is expected to harvest 1.92 million metric tons of wheat this season.
Friday, April 19, 2013
Kansas corn planting behind, topsoil moisture improving
Kansas farmers have planted 3 percent of their planned corn crop, well behind both the 16 percent planted by mid-April in 2012 and the 10 percent average for this time frame, according to the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service.
Topsoil moisture is improving in areas that have received significant rain or snow, but more precipitation is needed to have an impact on subsoil moisture, said the agency. Subsoil moisture is short to very short across 73 percent of the state, while topsoil moisture is short to very short in 40 percent of Kansas.
Topsoil moisture is improving in areas that have received significant rain or snow, but more precipitation is needed to have an impact on subsoil moisture, said the agency. Subsoil moisture is short to very short across 73 percent of the state, while topsoil moisture is short to very short in 40 percent of Kansas.
Monday, April 8, 2013
US importing Argentina corn during drought recovery
Argentina has seen
an increase in corn exports to the U.S. as the latter country continues to
recover from the 2012 drought, with the first shipments already on their way, according to reports.
The U.S. usually
imports little corn from Argentina, with less than 72,000 metric tons of the
grain imported in 2012. In the two years before that, no corn
was imported. "The United States lost one third of its corn production, so
there's a black hole there," said an industry source, who also said that Mexico
is a favored destination for Argentine corn these days due to thin U.S. supply.
Mexico usually obtains more than 90 percent of its imported corn from the
U.S.
In Argentina the average spot price for corn at the country's
ports was $276 per metric tons free-on-board on March 26. U.S. corn at the Gulf
Coast was offered at about $315 per metric ton FOB. Argentina, the world's
number three corn supplier, expects a 2012–2013 corn harvest of 25.7 million
metric tons compared with 21.2 million metric tons in the 2011–2012 crop year,
according to official forecasts.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
March corn stock levels higher than anticipated
When the United States Department of Agriculture released its Grain Stocks report on March 28, the amount of corn stocks on hand even surprised the USDA itself.
Corn stocks on March 1 totaled 5.4 billion bushels. While that amount is still 10 percent lower than it was one year ago, it was only down 2.63 billion bushels from December 2012, compared to a drop of 3.62 billion bushels from the same period one year ago.
"That implies if you just subtract the March stock number from the December stock number, we have essentially an implied use of around 2.6 billion bushels, and that's the lowest implied disappearance since 2002," Joe Glauber, USDA chief economist said during an agency broadcast. "We're going to be looking at that. I'm sure the trade will be looking at those numbers, trying to figure out exactly what that means."
The lower disappearance rate for corn was quickly noticed in the markets, offering signs of optimism for the poultry and livestock industries that rely on the corn for feed. Just after the grain stocks report was released, corn futures dropped 5 percent, which is the biggest daily drop for the commodity since May 2012.
Corn stocks on March 1 totaled 5.4 billion bushels. While that amount is still 10 percent lower than it was one year ago, it was only down 2.63 billion bushels from December 2012, compared to a drop of 3.62 billion bushels from the same period one year ago.
"That implies if you just subtract the March stock number from the December stock number, we have essentially an implied use of around 2.6 billion bushels, and that's the lowest implied disappearance since 2002," Joe Glauber, USDA chief economist said during an agency broadcast. "We're going to be looking at that. I'm sure the trade will be looking at those numbers, trying to figure out exactly what that means."
The lower disappearance rate for corn was quickly noticed in the markets, offering signs of optimism for the poultry and livestock industries that rely on the corn for feed. Just after the grain stocks report was released, corn futures dropped 5 percent, which is the biggest daily drop for the commodity since May 2012.
Poor corn crop would close meat, poultry plants, economist says
If this year's corn yields drop much below the base of 145 bushels per acre, it will force some meat and poultry plants that rely on that grain for feed to close, said Dr. Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC.
Elam spoke on this topic during the March 26 Farm Journal/WATT Grain and Meat Outlook Webinar, which can be viewed on demand at http://www.wattagnet.com/157129.html.
He said that if the base forecast were to hold true, the average U.S. price for corn would be around $7 per bushel. Under that scenario, there would be some room for expansion of protein consumption, and the profitability of meat and poultry production would improve.
However, if yields dropped as low as 130, Elam said, the picture would be grim.
"That would still be more than we produced last year, but because or carryover supplies are at pipeline minimum levels, it would mean lower feed supply and much higher feed costs. … If we get much below 140 bushels an acre, we might see $8 or $8.50 corn, not on the average for the year, but certainly a big piece of it," Elam said. "It would shut down some more protein and ethanol companies."
The meat and poultry industries have already suffered enough, Elam said, as nine poultry companies have gone bankrupt since 2008, and two others were forced to sell to avoid bankruptcy. Two more meat plants shut down in March, he added.
However, if yields exceed the forecast and reach 155 bushels, Elam said there would a significant rebound in feed use and exports. It would enable protein production to expand, and there would be significantly more profitability for feeders.
Corn yields should improve from 2013, but by how much?
Any scenario is possible for corn yields, said Chip Flory, ProFarmer editor, who also spoke at the webinar hosted by WATTAgNet and Farm Journal.
After discussing the apparent improvement of drought conditions in corn-growing regions, Flory was optimistic the corn crop will improve.
"It's better than it was last fall, but better than last fall doesn't mean it's good," Flory said.
According to ProFarmer estimates, last year's average yield was 123.4 bushels, and a yield of 140 for 2013 would be considered poor. An average yield would be 150, and an excellent yield would be 160.
Projected planted acreage is at 98 million acreas, up .8 million over last year, according to Flory's figures.
Some of the increased acreage may not yield as high, Elam indicated, as some of the new ground will be on lower productivity soils.
Flory also spoke cautiously that the March 9 rains in the Corn Belt may not have eased the drought conditions as much as some thought.
"They were very generous rains, there's no question about that. But immediately following those rains the farm ponds were overflowing and the rivers and creeks were running full," said Flory. "It really didn't soak a lot of that in."
Wide range projected for corn prices
With the quality of the corn crop in question, so is the price this fall. When asked to predict the price of corn this fall, Elam gave a broad range, saying it will largely depend on the weather, the moisture levels, and whether farmers can get the crop planted at the optimum time.
"With these carryover supplies, it's a loaded gun," said Elam. "Four-dollar corn and $8 corn are equally probable. The gun is out there, it's loaded, and it's called the western Corn Belt drought."
Flory agreed with Elam's assessment. However, he included that with an average yield of 160, the price could be expected to drop as low as $5.50 a bushel. If it only yielded 140, it would be around $7.25.
Elam cautioned that because of minimal grain inventories, grain prices will be extremely volatile over the summer.
Elam spoke on this topic during the March 26 Farm Journal/WATT Grain and Meat Outlook Webinar, which can be viewed on demand at http://www.wattagnet.com/157129.html.
He said that if the base forecast were to hold true, the average U.S. price for corn would be around $7 per bushel. Under that scenario, there would be some room for expansion of protein consumption, and the profitability of meat and poultry production would improve.
However, if yields dropped as low as 130, Elam said, the picture would be grim.
"That would still be more than we produced last year, but because or carryover supplies are at pipeline minimum levels, it would mean lower feed supply and much higher feed costs. … If we get much below 140 bushels an acre, we might see $8 or $8.50 corn, not on the average for the year, but certainly a big piece of it," Elam said. "It would shut down some more protein and ethanol companies."
The meat and poultry industries have already suffered enough, Elam said, as nine poultry companies have gone bankrupt since 2008, and two others were forced to sell to avoid bankruptcy. Two more meat plants shut down in March, he added.
However, if yields exceed the forecast and reach 155 bushels, Elam said there would a significant rebound in feed use and exports. It would enable protein production to expand, and there would be significantly more profitability for feeders.
Corn yields should improve from 2013, but by how much?
Any scenario is possible for corn yields, said Chip Flory, ProFarmer editor, who also spoke at the webinar hosted by WATTAgNet and Farm Journal.
After discussing the apparent improvement of drought conditions in corn-growing regions, Flory was optimistic the corn crop will improve.
"It's better than it was last fall, but better than last fall doesn't mean it's good," Flory said.
According to ProFarmer estimates, last year's average yield was 123.4 bushels, and a yield of 140 for 2013 would be considered poor. An average yield would be 150, and an excellent yield would be 160.
Projected planted acreage is at 98 million acreas, up .8 million over last year, according to Flory's figures.
Some of the increased acreage may not yield as high, Elam indicated, as some of the new ground will be on lower productivity soils.
Flory also spoke cautiously that the March 9 rains in the Corn Belt may not have eased the drought conditions as much as some thought.
"They were very generous rains, there's no question about that. But immediately following those rains the farm ponds were overflowing and the rivers and creeks were running full," said Flory. "It really didn't soak a lot of that in."
Wide range projected for corn prices
With the quality of the corn crop in question, so is the price this fall. When asked to predict the price of corn this fall, Elam gave a broad range, saying it will largely depend on the weather, the moisture levels, and whether farmers can get the crop planted at the optimum time.
"With these carryover supplies, it's a loaded gun," said Elam. "Four-dollar corn and $8 corn are equally probable. The gun is out there, it's loaded, and it's called the western Corn Belt drought."
Flory agreed with Elam's assessment. However, he included that with an average yield of 160, the price could be expected to drop as low as $5.50 a bushel. If it only yielded 140, it would be around $7.25.
Elam cautioned that because of minimal grain inventories, grain prices will be extremely volatile over the summer.
Monday, March 25, 2013
UN lays foundations for more drought resilience
- Develop proactive drought impact mitigation, preventive and planning measures, risk management, fostering of science, appropriate technology and innovation, public outreach and resource management as key elements of effective national drought policy.
- Promote greater collaboration to enhance the quality of local/national/regional/global observation networks and delivery systems.
- Improve public awareness of drought risk and preparedness for drought.
- Consider, where possible within the legal framework of each country, economic instruments, and financial strategies, including risk reduction, risk sharing and risk transfer tools in drought management plans.
- Establish emergency relief plans based on sound management of natural resources and self-help at appropriate governance levels.
- Link drought management plans to local/national development policies.
A top-level United Nations conference has, for the first time, laid the foundations for practical and proactive national drought policies to increase resilience to the world's most destructive natural hazard.
The high-level Meeting on National Drought Policy marked the first globally-coordinated attempt to move towards science-based drought disaster risk reduction. The meeting issued a declaration encouraging governments to develop and implement national drought management policies consistent with their development objectives. It also provided detailed scientific and policy guidance on how to achieve this.
The meeting on March 11-15 was organized by the World Meteorological Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and other partners. It brought together more than 300 government decision-makers, development agencies, and leading scientists and researchers.
Brigi Rafini , Prime Minister of Niger, chaired the high-level segment, which was addressed by more than 20 ministers.
"The nature of drought and its effects on key sectors such as water, agriculture, meteorology, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, etc. call for close collaboration between these sectors and beyond in order for drought management to achieve its goals. Such collaboration has, unfortunately, been lacking. It is our hope that the collaboration between a large number of partners in the context of this high-level meeting will constitute the starting point for lifting this constraint at all levels," said Ann Tutwiler, Special Representative of the Food and Agriculture Organization to the UN organizations in Geneva.
It has been estimated that droughts are the world's costliest natural disaster, accounting for $6-8 billion dollars annually, and impacting more people than any other form of natural disaster. Since 1900, over 11 million people have died as a result of droughts, and 2 billion people have been affected. The frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts are expected to rise as a result of climate change, with an increasing human and economic toll.
Since the 1970s, the land area affected by drought has doubled, undermining livelihoods, reversing development gains and entrenching poverty among millions of people who depend directly on the land. Women, children and the aged often pay the heaviest price.
Recurrent drought waves in vulnerable regions of Africa have attracted global attention because of the famines and massive social and economic disruptions. But drought affects other regions as well, as witnessed in recent years in the United States, Russia, Europe, India, Brazil and Australia, wreaking havoc on food supplies worldwide.
Presentations at the meeting showed that proactive drought management planning is now possible following major advances in science and technology, and knowledge about sustainable land management. Varied innovations also exist for national and regional drought monitoring, early warning systems, risk-based responses as well as mitigation and coping strategies.
The meeting issued a consensus declaration stressing the need for national drought management policies. Specifically, it encouraged governments to:
The new group aims to give global access to improved services for four initial priority sectors - food security and agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction - by the end of 2017.
Outcomes of the high-level meeting will also be transmitted to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification Conference of Parties to be held in September 2013. Its last Conference in 2011 took a decision to formulate an advocacy policy framework on drought.
The high-level Meeting on National Drought Policy marked the first globally-coordinated attempt to move towards science-based drought disaster risk reduction. The meeting issued a declaration encouraging governments to develop and implement national drought management policies consistent with their development objectives. It also provided detailed scientific and policy guidance on how to achieve this.
The meeting on March 11-15 was organized by the World Meteorological Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and other partners. It brought together more than 300 government decision-makers, development agencies, and leading scientists and researchers.
Brigi Rafini , Prime Minister of Niger, chaired the high-level segment, which was addressed by more than 20 ministers.
"The nature of drought and its effects on key sectors such as water, agriculture, meteorology, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, etc. call for close collaboration between these sectors and beyond in order for drought management to achieve its goals. Such collaboration has, unfortunately, been lacking. It is our hope that the collaboration between a large number of partners in the context of this high-level meeting will constitute the starting point for lifting this constraint at all levels," said Ann Tutwiler, Special Representative of the Food and Agriculture Organization to the UN organizations in Geneva.
It has been estimated that droughts are the world's costliest natural disaster, accounting for $6-8 billion dollars annually, and impacting more people than any other form of natural disaster. Since 1900, over 11 million people have died as a result of droughts, and 2 billion people have been affected. The frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts are expected to rise as a result of climate change, with an increasing human and economic toll.
Since the 1970s, the land area affected by drought has doubled, undermining livelihoods, reversing development gains and entrenching poverty among millions of people who depend directly on the land. Women, children and the aged often pay the heaviest price.
Recurrent drought waves in vulnerable regions of Africa have attracted global attention because of the famines and massive social and economic disruptions. But drought affects other regions as well, as witnessed in recent years in the United States, Russia, Europe, India, Brazil and Australia, wreaking havoc on food supplies worldwide.
Presentations at the meeting showed that proactive drought management planning is now possible following major advances in science and technology, and knowledge about sustainable land management. Varied innovations also exist for national and regional drought monitoring, early warning systems, risk-based responses as well as mitigation and coping strategies.
The meeting issued a consensus declaration stressing the need for national drought management policies. Specifically, it encouraged governments to:
The new group aims to give global access to improved services for four initial priority sectors - food security and agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction - by the end of 2017.
Outcomes of the high-level meeting will also be transmitted to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification Conference of Parties to be held in September 2013. Its last Conference in 2011 took a decision to formulate an advocacy policy framework on drought.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
USDA economist says broiler production will drop if drought persists
USDA Chief Economist Joesph Glauber is expecting 2013 to be a near-record year for both corn and soybean production, but he adds that if the drought persists and his projection is wrong, broiler production will likely drop.
“Another year of below trend yields and high prices would likely result in further liquidation of broiler numbers,” Glauber said during the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2013 on February 21.
His most recent outlook was nearly identical to the one he gave one year ago, before drought hit most of the grain-producing states and sent prices skyward. While he acknowledged his projections did not pan out in 2012, he has doubts that the feed crops will have two poor years in a row.
“Historical odds favor a rebound in crop yields, however, which should bring significantly lower prices in 2013,” said Glauber.
Those lower prices will take the pressure off of feed costs, bringing needed relief to poultry growers.
High grain and oilseed prices support another year of large plantings for wheat, corn and soybeans, Glauber said. Combined acreage for those crops topped 230 million acres in 2012, the highest since 1982. Glauber said those planted acres will likely approach similar levels for 2013.
A return to more normal spring weather should result in more soybeans and slightly less corn planted in 2013, he said. Corn planted is projected at 96.5 million acres, down slightly from last year’s 75-year high. Soybean acreage is projected at 77.5 million acres, which, if realized, would equal the record-high level reached in 2009.
Assuming normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development, the USDA is projecting a return to trend yields, resulting in record crops for corn and soybeans.
“Another year of below trend yields and high prices would likely result in further liquidation of broiler numbers,” Glauber said during the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2013 on February 21.
His most recent outlook was nearly identical to the one he gave one year ago, before drought hit most of the grain-producing states and sent prices skyward. While he acknowledged his projections did not pan out in 2012, he has doubts that the feed crops will have two poor years in a row.
“Historical odds favor a rebound in crop yields, however, which should bring significantly lower prices in 2013,” said Glauber.
Those lower prices will take the pressure off of feed costs, bringing needed relief to poultry growers.
High grain and oilseed prices support another year of large plantings for wheat, corn and soybeans, Glauber said. Combined acreage for those crops topped 230 million acres in 2012, the highest since 1982. Glauber said those planted acres will likely approach similar levels for 2013.
A return to more normal spring weather should result in more soybeans and slightly less corn planted in 2013, he said. Corn planted is projected at 96.5 million acres, down slightly from last year’s 75-year high. Soybean acreage is projected at 77.5 million acres, which, if realized, would equal the record-high level reached in 2009.
Assuming normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development, the USDA is projecting a return to trend yields, resulting in record crops for corn and soybeans.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
US Midwest soil drought recovery could take two years
The U.S. Midwest, which went through a severe drought in the summer of 2012 and has been in a state of drought since 2010, may take at least two years to recover from the damage, according to University of Missouri researchers.
Soil in the Midwest is dry down to as deep as 5 feet, where the roots of the crops absorb moisture and nutrients, according to Randall Miles, associate professor of soil science at the MU School of Natural Resources. “I wouldn’t count on a full recovery of soil moisture any time soon,” said Miles. “Even if parts of the Midwest receive a lot of snowfall and rain this spring, it will take time for the moisture to move deeply into the soil where the driest conditions exist.” Some roots, he said, had to go down to 8 feet in 2012 to extract water.
To recharge completely, a fully depleted soil would require about 16 inches of water over normal precipitation amounts. “In order for the soil moisture to return to a normal state this year, the rain and snow would almost have to come continuously,” said Miles. “The weather would almost have to be like the precipitation found in London, coming down light and slowly to minimize runoff.”
It could be two to three years before farmers can expect bumper crops again, according to Miles.
Soil in the Midwest is dry down to as deep as 5 feet, where the roots of the crops absorb moisture and nutrients, according to Randall Miles, associate professor of soil science at the MU School of Natural Resources. “I wouldn’t count on a full recovery of soil moisture any time soon,” said Miles. “Even if parts of the Midwest receive a lot of snowfall and rain this spring, it will take time for the moisture to move deeply into the soil where the driest conditions exist.” Some roots, he said, had to go down to 8 feet in 2012 to extract water.
To recharge completely, a fully depleted soil would require about 16 inches of water over normal precipitation amounts. “In order for the soil moisture to return to a normal state this year, the rain and snow would almost have to come continuously,” said Miles. “The weather would almost have to be like the precipitation found in London, coming down light and slowly to minimize runoff.”
It could be two to three years before farmers can expect bumper crops again, according to Miles.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Poultry industry can grow amid tough times
The poultry industry has done well to sustain itself while saddled with low grain supplies, high feed costs and a global recession, but it still hasn’t tapped its full potential, said FarmEcon president Thomas Elam.
“What we have done with meat production in the face of these limits in feed supply is nothing short of remarkable,” Elam said during a presentation January 31 at the 2013 International Production and Processing Expo in Atlanta. “We may have to continue that over the next 12 or 24 months.”
While all sectors of animal agriculture are waiting to see if the Midwestern drought will lift, Elam said that the odds of the price of corn being $5 a bushel in November are about equal to the odds that the price will be $10. And $5 corn will be very appealing to the feed industry’s biggest rival, ethanol producers. Elam gave ethanol at least part of the blame for the bankruptcy filings of eight poultry companies since 2008, though most of those facilities are now operating under new ownership.
But along with the uncertainty comes optimism.
“Where’s all the opportunity? There will be more distressed assets for sale. There have been great opportunities for companies to pick up production facilities at really, really reasonable costs,” Elam said.
He also noted there were opportunities in flexible-price contracts based off a feed-price formula, in product innovation, in export markets and in continued improved efficiency.
“What we have done with meat production in the face of these limits in feed supply is nothing short of remarkable,” Elam said during a presentation January 31 at the 2013 International Production and Processing Expo in Atlanta. “We may have to continue that over the next 12 or 24 months.”
While all sectors of animal agriculture are waiting to see if the Midwestern drought will lift, Elam said that the odds of the price of corn being $5 a bushel in November are about equal to the odds that the price will be $10. And $5 corn will be very appealing to the feed industry’s biggest rival, ethanol producers. Elam gave ethanol at least part of the blame for the bankruptcy filings of eight poultry companies since 2008, though most of those facilities are now operating under new ownership.
But along with the uncertainty comes optimism.
“Where’s all the opportunity? There will be more distressed assets for sale. There have been great opportunities for companies to pick up production facilities at really, really reasonable costs,” Elam said.
He also noted there were opportunities in flexible-price contracts based off a feed-price formula, in product innovation, in export markets and in continued improved efficiency.
Friday, January 25, 2013
High feed costs, drought to affect livestock markets in 2013
Drought and high feed costs could continue to restrict livestock markets in 2013 if conditions do not improve, according to Dr. David Anderson, professor and economist in Livestock and Food Products Marketing with the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. Anderson addressed livestock producers from across the country during an issues conference at the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 94th annual meeting.
“Underlying everything we talk about in terms of livestock markets, everything starts with where we are with drought and pasture conditions,” said Anderson. “Where we go in terms of costs, particularly, will be based on what happens with the drought in the coming year.” Corn prices reached up to $8 per bushel in 2012 due to the drought. Higher feed costs led to increased production costs for cattle, pork and poultry farmers, resulting in increased retail prices to consumers. However, Anderson said that as more acres of corn are planted in 2013, lower prices and decent yields may bring the market back into equilibrium, provided the drought subsides.
Anderson also said that meat prices in 2013 largely will hinge on demand. Per-capita consumption of all meat in the U.S. has declined in the past five years, reflecting higher retail prices and a weak domestic economy. “The key for how high those market prices can go, how much those prices recover to pay for record-high feed costs we can get, is really going to hinge on what happens to demand for those meat products in the overall economy,” he said.
While per-capita consumption of beef, pork and poultry are down, Americans still enjoy eating meat. Other factors like a growing population, increased exports and decreased production have affected the per-capita measurement. “As we see reports over the next couple of years about declining meat consumption, it doesn’t have anything to do with people not liking meat,” said Anderson. “It’s that we’re producing less, and we have booming export markets.”
Export markets will continue to be a strong outlet for livestock producers in 2013. American farmers and ranchers stand at the ready to fill increased demand from around the world as the global economy improves and dietary preferences continue to shift to include more meat.
“Underlying everything we talk about in terms of livestock markets, everything starts with where we are with drought and pasture conditions,” said Anderson. “Where we go in terms of costs, particularly, will be based on what happens with the drought in the coming year.” Corn prices reached up to $8 per bushel in 2012 due to the drought. Higher feed costs led to increased production costs for cattle, pork and poultry farmers, resulting in increased retail prices to consumers. However, Anderson said that as more acres of corn are planted in 2013, lower prices and decent yields may bring the market back into equilibrium, provided the drought subsides.
Anderson also said that meat prices in 2013 largely will hinge on demand. Per-capita consumption of all meat in the U.S. has declined in the past five years, reflecting higher retail prices and a weak domestic economy. “The key for how high those market prices can go, how much those prices recover to pay for record-high feed costs we can get, is really going to hinge on what happens to demand for those meat products in the overall economy,” he said.
While per-capita consumption of beef, pork and poultry are down, Americans still enjoy eating meat. Other factors like a growing population, increased exports and decreased production have affected the per-capita measurement. “As we see reports over the next couple of years about declining meat consumption, it doesn’t have anything to do with people not liking meat,” said Anderson. “It’s that we’re producing less, and we have booming export markets.”
Export markets will continue to be a strong outlet for livestock producers in 2013. American farmers and ranchers stand at the ready to fill increased demand from around the world as the global economy improves and dietary preferences continue to shift to include more meat.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
US corn farmers to rotate crops in wake of drought
Some U.S. farmers are expected to return to rotating their crops after years of solid corn growing in the wake of the 2012 drought, wanting to avoid another year of risk as dry conditions are forecast to continue, according to analysts.
A shift in the primary grain states, such as Iowa and Illinois, could contribute to the increase in 2013 grain prices, which are already up due to stockpiles projected to hit historic 17-year lows by the end of the summer. Iowa and Illinois could each switch up to one million acres previously devoted to corn production over to other crops in 2013, according to Rabobank. That could mean a loss of up to 320 million bushels of corn from the 2013 harvest, based on the states' five-year average yields. Farmers planted 14.2 million acres of corn in Iowa and 12.8 million acres in Illinois in 2012.
Corn requires more moisture than other crops such as soybeans, and the soil needs to be reinvigorated after years of corn-on-corn production. Soybeans naturally add the key fertilizer nitrogen to the land. "Farmers are going to do their best to not do corn-on-corn any more than they have to," said Rich Guebert, vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau.
Even so, reports are still predicting a record acreage of corn planting in 2013, due largely to high corn prices. Rabobank is estimating total plantings will rise 0.5 percent to 97.6 million acres, which would be the most since 101.95 million acres were planted in 1936 before the advent of soybeans.
A shift in the primary grain states, such as Iowa and Illinois, could contribute to the increase in 2013 grain prices, which are already up due to stockpiles projected to hit historic 17-year lows by the end of the summer. Iowa and Illinois could each switch up to one million acres previously devoted to corn production over to other crops in 2013, according to Rabobank. That could mean a loss of up to 320 million bushels of corn from the 2013 harvest, based on the states' five-year average yields. Farmers planted 14.2 million acres of corn in Iowa and 12.8 million acres in Illinois in 2012.
Corn requires more moisture than other crops such as soybeans, and the soil needs to be reinvigorated after years of corn-on-corn production. Soybeans naturally add the key fertilizer nitrogen to the land. "Farmers are going to do their best to not do corn-on-corn any more than they have to," said Rich Guebert, vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau.
Even so, reports are still predicting a record acreage of corn planting in 2013, due largely to high corn prices. Rabobank is estimating total plantings will rise 0.5 percent to 97.6 million acres, which would be the most since 101.95 million acres were planted in 1936 before the advent of soybeans.
Friday, January 18, 2013
US monthly weather records shattered during 2012 drought
- 2012 was the warmest year ever recorded in the U.S., according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s State of the Climate report.
- Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge height, 13.88 feet, broke the all-time record in the New York Harbor, and ravaged communities across New Jersey and New York with floodwaters and winds.
- The summer of 2012 was the worst drought in 50 years across the nation’s breadbasket, with over 1,300 U.S. counties across 29 states declared drought disaster areas.
- The hottest March on record in the contiguous U.S., and July was the hottest single month ever recorded in the lower 48 states.
- Wildfires burned over 9.2 million acres in the U.S., and destroyed hundreds of homes.
Thousands of monthly weather records were broken in communities throughout the U.S. in 2012, according to an updated interactive extreme weather mapping tool and year-end review released by the Natural Resources Defense Council. 2012 tallies reveal even more monthly weather records set than the 3,251 records broken in 2011, with record-breaking heat, rainfall and snow events catalogued by state.
New in 2013, the interactive map will also rank all 50 states by their percentage of weather stations reporting at least one monthly heat record broken in 2012. The top 10 states to be highlighted are Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Some of the extreme events recorded include:
New in 2013, the interactive map will also rank all 50 states by their percentage of weather stations reporting at least one monthly heat record broken in 2012. The top 10 states to be highlighted are Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Some of the extreme events recorded include:
Thursday, January 17, 2013
US 2012 corn crop cut one-fourth due to drought
The final U.S. Department of Agriculture report on the 2012 crop-growing season showed U.S. farmers harvested 10.78 billion bushels of corn, less than three-fourths of what the USDA predicted in spring 2012, due to the record-breaking drought that ruined the crops.
At the same time, demand created by the drought made the crop the most valuable ever, with prices remaining above $7 per bushel for most of summer and fall, according to the report. Overall, the crop was worth $85 billion, said Chad Hart, an agriculture economist with Iowa State University. The harvest was also still the eighth-largest in U.S. history, in spite of the drought.
Iowa had its driest year since 1989 but was still the largest corn producer, with 1.87 billion bushels, down 20 percent from the 2011 harvest year. Minnesota was second with 1.37 billion bushels, Nebraska was third with 1.29 billion bushels and Illinois was fourth with 1.28 billion bushels. Corn production in Illinois fell 34 percent from 2011 and Nebraska’s production was down 16 percent. Minnesota, where the drought was not as severe as in other states, produced 14 percent more corn in the 2012 harvest year than in 2011.
The year-end average yield was 123.4 bushels of corn per acre, according to the USDA.
At the same time, demand created by the drought made the crop the most valuable ever, with prices remaining above $7 per bushel for most of summer and fall, according to the report. Overall, the crop was worth $85 billion, said Chad Hart, an agriculture economist with Iowa State University. The harvest was also still the eighth-largest in U.S. history, in spite of the drought.
Iowa had its driest year since 1989 but was still the largest corn producer, with 1.87 billion bushels, down 20 percent from the 2011 harvest year. Minnesota was second with 1.37 billion bushels, Nebraska was third with 1.29 billion bushels and Illinois was fourth with 1.28 billion bushels. Corn production in Illinois fell 34 percent from 2011 and Nebraska’s production was down 16 percent. Minnesota, where the drought was not as severe as in other states, produced 14 percent more corn in the 2012 harvest year than in 2011.
The year-end average yield was 123.4 bushels of corn per acre, according to the USDA.
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