Drought threatens Southern African corn crop prospects

Crop and livestock production prospects in Southern Africa are threatened by the El Niño weather phenomenon that has reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The situation will likely be exacerbated as last year's season was also disappointing and food prices have risen as a result. A special alert released last week by FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) warned the combined effects “could acutely impact the food security situation in 2016.”
Corn planting has already been delayed by the drought conditions, and those crops that have been sown are struggling to establish with inadequate rains and high temperatures.
Farmers in the region are almost entirely dependent on rain, so harvests are highly susceptible to its variations.
El Niño's impacts vary by location and season but previous strong episodes have been associated with reduced production in several countries, including South Africa, which is the largest cereal producer in the sub-region and typically exports corn to neighboring countries.
“Weather forecasts indicate a higher probability of a continuation of below-normal rains between December and March across most countries,” according to the GIEWS alert.
South Africa has already declared drought status for five provinces, its main cereal-producing regions, while Lesotho has issued a drought mitigation plan, and Swaziland has implemented water restrictions as reservoir levels have become low.
According to the latest Grain Market Report from the International Grains Council (IGC), the forecast for global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2015-16 has been cut by 3 million metric tons (mmt) to 1,996 mmt or about 2 percent below last season’s record. Main cause of this reduction is the effect on the corn crops of the drought conditions in Ethiopia, South Africa and China.
For South Africa, IGC estimates the 2014-15 corn crop at 15.0 mmt, but the following year – ending in April 2016 – at just 10.6 mmt. Exports for the current season are forecast at 0.6 mmt – around one-third of recent annual exported volumes.

England, Wales crop planting survey released

Results from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board and the Home-Grown Cereals Authority Planting survey for England and Wales, conducted in December 2012 to January 2013 is now available. For Scotland, the Scottish government continues to produce December planting estimates with 2012 results expected on March 14.
The survey information, which measures autumn crop planting up to December 1, 2012, is based on 2,900 responses from a representative sample of farm businesses.
The survey shows a 19 percent fall to 2.417 million hectare in the total area planted to winter cereals (wheat, barley and oats) and oilseeds in England and Wales, compared to 2011. The results reflect an extremely difficult autumn planting season for 2012 and do not account for plantings post December 1, 2012.
For winter wheat, the planted area is estimated at 1.394 million hectare, down 25 percent on December 2011. However, some freezing conditions through the winter and drier weather in late February may have allowed further plantings – though in less than ideal conditions.
For winter barley, the planted area is estimated at 0.279 million hectare, down 19 percent on December 2011. However, a noticeable increase in the spring barley area is expected due to the wet autumn diverting land towards spring cropping.
For winter oats, the planted area is estimated at 56,000 hectare, down 30 percent on December 2011. It is possible that some plantings have occurred beyond December 1 and that spring oats may capture some of the extra cropping land available this spring.
For winter oilseed rape, the planted area is estimated at 0.688 million hectare, down 1 percent on December 2011. However, it is expected that crop abandonment will be higher than usual so the year-on-year decline in harvest area is likely noticeable.
Jack Watts, Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board senior analyst, said, “Given the poor weather through the summer and autumn of 2012, markets have been expecting a decline in winter cropping areas, which is reflected in new crop wheat prices.
“Since late 2012, November 2013 feed wheat futures have been trading at equal levels with the French milling wheat equivalent. In a more ‘normal’ season, the UK futures would be at around a 10-15 pound per ton discount.”
On top of the decline in area, winter wheat crops are likely to be poorly established this season. “This may make crops less resilient against any extreme weather into spring and summer,” Watts added.
For barley, the scale of spring barley plantings will be the critical element in supply, according to Watts. “Traditionally, following difficult autumn planting, spring barley is the most popular ‘go to’ spring crop. However, the availability of seed could be a limiting factor.”
For oilseed rape, a noticeable decline in harvest area year-on-year is expected due to crop abandonment but whether this has an effect on prices remains to be seen. Watts said, “When considering rapeseed price direction it needs to be looked at from a European perspective. In this context, the UK – and to a smaller extent, France – are the only major producing member states with crop condition issues so far.
“This spring, UK arable farmers face a significant backlog of field work. For many farmers, the first priority is likely to be establishing crops on remaining bare land before re-planting poor oilseed rape crops. It is important to keep this in mind when considering abandonment rates.”
Watts urged caution when looking at plantings in the context of prices. He said: “It is important to remember that despite the condition of UK crops, UK grain and oilseed markets operate in a global market. It is critical to monitor the global situation, which will be the main price driver, while the UK situation will influence the relationship with the world/EU market.”
Full analysis of the England and Wales planting results, plus data from the Scottish government, will be published in the next issue of "Prospects," due out on March 20.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board and the Home-Grown Cereals Authority Planting will carry out a full planting and variety survey this spring, with results released in the summer. 

Crop diversity to become key as global climate shifts

As weather changes continue to affect crop farmers, producers are making changes to what they plant in order to remain profitable and keep up with the new climate, according to reports.
U.S. farmers overall in the 2012 season planted the most corn since 1937, but growers in Kansas planted the fewest acres in three years, switching to crops requiring less water such as wheat, sorghum and triticale. Corn acreage in Manitoba, Canada, however, has doubled in the last ten years due to weather changes and high prices. “These changes are happening faster than plants can adapt, so we will see substantial impacts on global growing patterns,” said Axel Schmidt, a former senior scientist for the International Center for Tropical Agriculture and currently with Catholic Relief Services.
The 2012 drought in the U.S. was the worst since 1954, according to the Palmer Drought Index, and dropped estimates for the country's corn harvest to the lowest levels in six years. At the same time, September was the 331st consecutive month in which worldwide temperatures topped the 20th-century average. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has updated its plant hardiness map, shifting many regions into zones five degrees Fahrenheit warmer than in the late 20th century.
"We'll see a real mix of crop signals and climate signals," said Wolfram Schlenker, an environmental economist at Columbia University. He said the climate is in transition, and agriculture needs to adapt. Even small changes in average temperature may shift climate patterns, affecting rainfall, evaporation rates and the ability of plants to thrive in certain environments.
Even the U.S. Corn Belt is seeing changes, according to Tabitha Craig, a crop insurance seller for Young Enterprises Inc. She said that wheat acres will be high in 2013 due to the hotter, dryer weather pattern.
Overall, biodiversity is going to be the key to sustainability, and demand will be needed to maintain profitability for farmers. “We need to use biodiversity and crop varieties to our advantage,” said Roger Beachy, the first head of the USDA's National Institute of Food and Agriculture. “Can a farmer make as much money raising chickpeas as corn? You have to create value for the farmer. We need to get the scientists and the economists talking to one another about this.”

German wheat, potato field trials destroyed

Two German field trials involving genetically modified plants were destroyed by unknown attackers, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research reported.
The trials in Gross Lüsewitz and in Üplingen (Saxony-Anhalt) were being funded by the German Ministry of Research to develop new risk assessment methods. The vandalism caused damage worth hundreds of thousands of euros and politicians from almost all political parties condemned the attacks, according to the report. In Gross Lüsewitz, trial fields of potatoes and wheat, each 265 square meters, were destroyed. In the Üplingen display garden, trial fields of potatoes were destroyed.

Soil-dwelling nematodes unaffected by GM maize, according to research

According to a study conducted by Sebastian Höss of the Institute for Biodiversity in Regensburg, Germany, soil-dwelling nematodes are unaffected by a certain genetically modified Bacillus thuringiensis maize cultivar containing three different Bt proteins.
The nematodes, which are essential to the soil nutrient cycle, showed a negative reaction only to levels of Bt proteins far higher than would be found in the soil of a typical Bt maize field, said the study. Practical trials were conducted over three years to determine whether the nematode communities found in the fields of Bt maize were any different from those found in conventional maize fields, with the results that the Bt maize being tested had no impact on the nematode communities.

Texas corn producers promote water conservation, economic growth

The Texas Corn Producers Board and its members have launched a campaign to promote water conservation without sacrificing economic growth in response to potential restrictions on irrigation that they say will damage the state's economy.
“Agriculture brings billions of dollars into the economy of the Panhandle and South Plains every year and is the main driver of economic growth in the region,” said David Gibson, executive director of the board. “Through research and development of new technology, we are finding ways to grow more crops with less water. This means we can conserve water for future generations without sacrificing economic growth today.” Thanks to new irrigation methods and improved seed genetics, today a bushel of corn can be grown with half the water that was used 25 years ago, and researchers at Texas A&M AgriLife Research are currently testing new corn hybrids that will reduce water use by another 25%. Seed companies are developing new drought-tolerant crops and the first generation of these water-conserving crops will be available to farmers this year.
The campaign includes televised public service announcements, a 10-minute video and a new website with the slogan “Water grows our economy; let’s make it last.”
“Every person in this region of West Texas is affected by the availability of groundwater, but no one has a bigger stake in conserving water resources than the farmers whose livelihoods depend upon irrigation,” said Gibson. “That’s why we’re working with agencies like the USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service to apply conservation practices that benefit everyone who lives and works in the region.”

Improved plant efficiency, not just yield, vital to crop sustainability

A second Green Revolution, focusing on plant efficiency rather than the yield goal of the first revolution, will be vital to managing sustainable crops that can be used to reduce world hunger, according to Jonathan Lynch, plant nutritionist for Pennsylvania State University.
The first revolution, according to Lynch, concentrated on soil inputs like fertilizers and irrigation. While the results worked for regions with good soil quality, many of the poorest nations also have to contend with poor soil — a situation that necessitates a different approach. "What we need, instead of plants that respond to fertilizers, are plants that can do well in low-input, low-fertility environments," said Lynch. Plants that can more efficiently acquire nutrients from the soil could save money, help the environment and result in more food for more people.
Efficient roots are the crux of the matter, according to Lynch, but finding the solution is complex. "To just say that you want more roots — that's the wrong answer," said Lynch. "Roots use up carbon and other resources. By having more roots, you have less yield. What you want somehow is a root system that's doing just the right thing at the right time in the right place."
Experiments in breeding for yield at low fertility has been successful where attempted, but many more studies need to be done. "The bottleneck right now is phenomics — identifying those root traits that are important and then, what's more difficult, understanding how they interact with one another," said Lynch. "There are very few people doing this kind of work. It's amazing to realize at this point how little we still know."

Official: China has not planted imported GMO seeds

An unidentified official from China’s Ministry of Agriculture denied reports that the Chinese government has given the go-ahead for wide-scale farming of genetically modified crops, according to Reuters news agency. Although China has imported genetically modified grain, seeds and cotton, it used them “as raw materials for processing,” he said.
His country seeks to develop its own genetically modified crops to reduce reliance on imports, he said. The government has approved field trials for 20 genetically modified crops, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Australian biodiesel producers solicit more feedstock

As Australia's economy rebounds and demand for biofuels increases, fuel companies are courting growers in Victoria state in hopes that they will produce more fuel crops for conversion, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
"We have a significant capacity in our plant in Melbourne, the whole issue for the biodiesel industry in general is the supply of feedstock," said Robert Gooden of Smorgon Fuels.

Philippines increases agricultural production

Reports say the Philippines saw an increase of 1.5% in agricultural production for the first nine months of the year over last year.
The Department of Agriculture said rough rice production increased 2.9% and corn jumped 0.8% over last year. Hog production also saw a 2% growth.
The growth is predicted to slow for the remainder of the year given the storm damage to crops.