Rabobank: Poultry industry outlook won’t be hurt by Russian ban

Russia’s ban on poultry exports from the U.S., EU, Canada, Australia and Norway will not derail the bullish outlook for poultry meat prices, Rabobank stated in a report on the global poultry industry for the third quarter of 2014. Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory group published the report, stating that strong fundamentals will promote further margin improvements in nearly every region of the world.
“The global outlook for the poultry industry is bullish for the remainder of 2014,” said Nan-Dirk Mulder, a Rabobank analyst. “We expect strong fundamentals to keep white meat prices high, while dark meat prices may come under some pressure.”
Impact of restrictions on poultry trade by South Africa
Recently introduced restrictions on the global poultry trade by South Africa will have an impact. Brazil has been identified as the big winner from this action. Meanwhile, exporters in the U.S. and EU will have to compete to find alternative markets. While this will affect price levels, Rabobank believes it should not have a major impact on local poultry industries, as market fundamentals remain relatively strong.
United States outlook
In the United States, poultry prices continued their seasonal climb in the second quarter, driven by higher breast meat values. With well-balanced market conditions with measure supply growth, Rabobank expects hicken production in the U.S. to increase 3 percent in 2015.
European Union outlook
Rabobank says the outlook for the EU poultry market is bullish, with the chicken market continuing to be relatively strong because of high demand and a limited supply.
Asian outlook
Poultry marketers in China are showing signs of recovery as worries over avian influenza are fading and industry initiatives to reduce production capacity are taking effect. Since poultry and pork prices are correlated, a bullish outlook on pork prices will give poultry strong support in China in the coming months.
Japan’s poultry industry also has a bullish outlook for the second half of 2014, with ongoing low stock levels and limited expansion. A better Japanese demand is driving a recovery in Thailand. India’s poultry industry is experiencing a fragile recovery.
South American outlook
Exports currently drive a positive outlook in Brazil, though the domestic poultry market is currently being affected by a relatively weak domestic demand because of a reduction on consumer spending power.
In Argentina, the industry has been affected by a downturn because of weak domestic consumption and a slow economy.