Rabobank: Russian trade ban shaking up pork markets

• In its quarterly report on the global pork industry, Rabobank has stated that the Russian ban on pork from the EU, U.S., Canada, Australia and Norway is quickly changing the landscape for pork trade.
  Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research team says that, although the worst of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus outbreak is past, the industry faces another major challenge from the Russian import ban.
  Rabobank believes Brazil, which has seen a 30 percent per kilogram price surge, is the big winner in the ban. Meanwhile, the EU has seen prices drop by 9 percent with no sign of recovery.  Even taking into account the positive impact of declining feed costs on margins, it will be a disappointing year for the EU pork industry, says Rabobank.
  "As Russian markets will not open again until July next year, the wildcard next year will be the possible return of PEDv this winter, cutting back available hogs for slaughter in 2015," said Rabobank analyst Albert Vernooij.
  In other markets, a rebounding demand in China will support market recovery in upcoming quarters. With feed costs expected to be lower in 2015, Chinese hog producers expect to return to profitability.
  The Japanese pork market is doing well. Pork consumption in Japan is stable, despite a surge in imports and higher retail prices that resulted from the depreciation of the Yen against the U.S. dollar. High prices for competing proteins have also played a factor.